【作者】 陈明敏；

【导师】 伍世安；

【作者基本信息】 江西财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 石油作为重要的能源和战略物资，与国民经济、社会发展以及国家安全紧密相关。随着我国经济的高速增长，石油需求量迅速增大，国内石油开采增速滞后于需求增长速度的矛盾日益突出。近年来，我国石油进口依存度大幅提高，2002年石油消费量超过日本，成为继美国之后的世界第二大石油消费国，2005年净进口石油1.36亿吨，占世界石油贸易量的7％左右，但我国对国际石油价格的影响却不到0.1％。对国际石油定价权的深入研究对于合理地制定我国的能源战略，保证我国国民经济稳定、快速、持续增长，具有重要的理论和现实意义。 本文采用定性和定量、个量和总量相结合的研究方法，从理论和实证两方面对国际石油定价权机制进行了分析，认为在当今石油定价权主体多元化的时代，我国应充分把握影响国际石油长期和短期的各种供求和非供求因素，抓住机遇，创新机制，发展期货市场，加强石油储备，利用进口大国地位，争取国际石油定价权。 本文共由四个部分构成。 第一章导论，介绍了本文选题的意义和背景，并对国内外目前对油价形成和波动的研究现状进行了回顾，最后介绍本文的研究思路、研究方法以及创新点和存在的不足。 第二章对国际石油定价权机制进行分析。首先，以国际石油定价权为主线分析国际石油市场的历史和定价权变迁，认为在1973年以前，西方跨国石油公司掌握石油定价权；在1973～1986年，OPEC掌握石油定价权；1986年至今是石油定价权主体多元化的时代。其次，对国际油价的波动和形成进行理论分析，认为石油仍是一种商品，其价格受供求规律的影响，在短期石油供求的价格弹性都很小，供求细微的变化，都容易引起油价的剧烈波动。再次，对现行国际原油及成品油市场作价机制进行了介绍。然后对国际石油的现货价格和期货价格的互动关系进行了分析，认为期货市场在某种程度上已经替代了现货市场的价格发现功能，期货价格已经成为国际原油价格变化的预先指标。 在对世界石油储采比、世界石油产量、石油库存、世界经济增长率、替代能源价格波动、期货市场炒作、美元汇率变动、突发政治经济事件、异常气候等供求以及非供求因素分别进行单因素分析的基础上，本文对世界石油储采比、石油库存、替代能源价格波动、期货市场炒作等对油价影响较显著的可量化的因素作了综合比较分析，认为替代能源价格波动、石油库存、期货市场炒作、美元汇率变动、突发政治经济事件和异常气候对国际油价具有不同程度的影响，在长期，替代能源和石油库存是起主要作用的影响因素；而在短期，石油库存波动和期货更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important source of energy and strategic commodities, oil is closely related with national economy, social development and national security. With rapid economic growth, the demand of oil in China is increasing rapidly. Domestic oil production lagging demand growth has been becoming an increasingly serious problem. In recent years, China has been substantially increased the degree of dependence on oil imports, its oil consumption in 2002 exceeded that of Japan, becoming the world’s second largest oil consumer, just behind the United States, with 136 million tons of oil net imports in 2005,accounting for about 7% in world oil trade, but ratio of effect on international oil prices is still less than 0.1%. Deep study on the international oil pricing right will play an important theoretical and practical role in establishing reasonable Chinese energy strategy, ensuring the stability and rapid continuous growth of our economy.This paper makes theoretical and empirical analysis of the international oil pricing right respectively by using qualitative and quantitative method, getting the following conclusions: China should take full advantage of the long term and short term factors of international oil supply-demand and non-supply-demand, innovating mechanism and developing the futures market, enhancing the petroleum reserve, striving for the bid right of petroleum in utilizing the status of significant import country in the world in multiplex time of oil pricing right.The paper consists of four parts.Chapter one mainly introduces the background and significance. After summarizing the current study both home and abroad it presents innovation points and weakness points in this paper.Chapter two mainly analyzes the mechanism of international oil pricing right. First, analysis of the history and institutional changes in the international oil market is given regarding the international oil pricing right as main line, considering that western multinational oil companies master the oil pricing right ahead of 1973; and OPEC is the master of the oil pricing right in 1973-1986; since 1986, it is multiplex time of oil pricing right. Second, According to the theoretical analysis of the fluctuations of international oil price, the oil is a commodity, which price follows the laws of supply-demand and lack of both supply elasticity and demand elasticity in short term. Finally, current international price mechanisms of crude oil and finished oil market are更多还原