经济一体化的贸易效应及其在我国的地区差异

【作者】 王建；

【导师】 范爱军；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 人类社会进入20世纪80年代中期以来，世界经济范围内出现了新一轮区域化浪潮，与20世纪50、60年代的区域经济一体化浪潮相比，新一轮区域经济一体化浪潮在参与国的数量和地域、成员国的经济发展水平、成员国所在的地理位置、成员国的贸易政策倾向、成员国主动参与的动机、经济一体化的实践效果等方面都有很大不同，所以又称为“新区域一体化”。在“新区域一体化”蓬勃发展、势头越来越猛的情况下，我国的外贸战略重心也转向了区域经济一体化，积极推动和参与了多个区域贸易协定的谈判，其中中国—东盟自由贸易区进展最快也最深入。同时，我国国内地区间原有的经济差距和发展不平衡现象依然严重。那么，我国在国际经济领域参与区域经济一体化是否会加剧国内经济领域的地区经济差距?理论分析表明，区域经济一体化可能引起国际贸易流量和流向、国际贸易条件等的变化，给具有独立经济利益的成员国带来不同的贸易效应，引起贸易利益在成员国间的不平衡分配。而我国各地区地方保护和经济割据还有较强存在，在我国参与区域经济一体化进程中具有相对独立性；各地区间产业、产品分工和比较优势也有初步发展，在我国深入参与区域经济分工进程中具有不同的经济基础。这些正是引起区域经济一体化贸易效应在我国各地区间存在差异的内在因素。通过对我国各地区向东盟各国出口利益的实证分析，发现贸易双方经济发展水平、交易成本、经济互补性以及华人华侨等因素对我国各地区和东盟各国的贸易联系具有显著影响，这将引起中国—东盟自由贸易区利益在我国各地区间的不平衡分配；通过对中国—东盟自由贸易区“早期收获计划”的考察，验证了这一预测，同时也启示自由贸易区的具体政策安排也对贸易利益在我国各地区间的不平衡分配有重要影响。这些正是引起区域经济一体化贸易效应在我国各地区间存在差异的直接因素。这些内在因素和直接因素的存在将导致我国各地区在我国参与区域经济一体化进程中获取不同的贸易利益，从而给各地区的经济增长和经济发展带来不同的影响，加剧我国的地区经济差距。对此，需要我国中央政府和各地方政府的共同努力。 本文结构安排如下：第一部分，介绍了目前“新区域一体化”的特点和我国各地区间的经济差距，并在此基础上提出了本文要分析的主要问题；第二部分，更多还原

【Abstract】 Since mid-1980s, a new round of regionalization, also called new regionalism has being steadily rising in the world economy, which is different with the old regionalism of 1950s-60s in the number of involved countries and continents, economic level of members, location of members, policy tendency of members and practical effects. Consistent with the fast development of new regionalism, China has paid more attention to regional economic integration and actively motivated and participated several negotiations on regional trade agreements, of which China-ASEAN FTA is the most significant. Meanwhile, there are still obvious economic discrepancy and development imbalance among Chinese provinces. Then, will China’s part in international economic integration worsen its domestic provincial economic imbalance? Theoretically, regional economic integration may cause changes in international trade flows and international trade terms, etc. and bring different trade effects to independent member economy. What’s more, regional protection and economic separation makes Chinese provinces relatively independent in China’s intemational-economic-integration process; the initial division of industries and products and relative advantages render Chinese provincial divergent economic bases. All of these are inherent factors that will cause different trade effects among Chinese domestic provinces in China’s international-economic-integration process. With the empirical study on benefits gained by Chinese provinces from exports to ASEAN members, it is found that trade partners’ economic level, transaction costs, economic complementarities and overseas Chinese can directly influence trade between Chinese provinces and ASEAN members, and thus will bring unbalanced trade benefits to Chinese provinces in China’s international-economic-integration process. With the review on "early harvest plan" of China-ASEAN FTA, the prediction is partly testified. And it reveals that detail policy arrangements have significant effects on unbalanced benefits distributed among Chinese provinces. All of those are direct factors that will cause different trade effects among Chinese provinces in China’s international-economic-integration process. Undoubtedly, these更多还原