【作者】 刘京铄；

【导师】 吴建华；

【作者基本信息】 太原理工大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 洪水预报系统是采用现代科技对水文信息进行实时遥测、传送和处理的专门技术，它综合了水文、电子、通信和计算机等科学的最新成果，是防洪决策、水资源优化调度重要的非工程措施。 洪水预报系统中的流域水文模型是近几十年来发展起来的一种新技术，它是对流域上发生的水文过程建立数学模型，然后借助于计算机完成整个降雨径流过程。本研究基于山西省文峪河流域属于半干旱半湿润地区的实际，在研究国内外传统水文模型后，选取了新安江模型、综合产流模型和改进的新安江模型作为产流预报模型，将它们和汇流及河道演算模型进行组合，构建不同的洪水预报方案，把这些预报方案应用于文峪河水库流域，取得了较为满意的预报结果，对进一步合理的开发研究半干旱半湿润地区洪水预报方案具有积极的作用。根据预报结果，并对产流模型的结构进行了分析比较，研究结果表明：综合产流模型和改进的新安江模型从结构和实际应用中比较适应于半干旱半湿润地区。 流域水文模型的参数率定是洪水预报中非常重要和困难的工作，因为洪水预报具有高度的复杂性、模糊性和随机性，但它同时又表现出自身的规律性，因此，模型参数的率定对洪水预报的精度非常重要，为了尽可能提高预报精度，本文简要的介绍了概念性流域水文模型参数优选的目标函数与参数优选算法；并结合人工调优，以使预报结果尽可能接近入库洪水的实际，产生的偏差尽可能小来确定模型的参数，当然，比更多还原

【Abstract】 The flood forecasting are real time remote survey、 transmitted and deal with of technique system by making use of modern science and technology, it includes many subjects of newly fruits, for instance hydrology、 electron、 communication and computer and so on. It is very important non-project measure that in the flood control, decision making and water resource optimization attemper.The hydrological simulation of drainage basin is a new technique that has been developed for decades in the flood forecasting system; its mathematical model is found according to generating hydrological process in drainage basin, then fulfilling the total simulation process by computer. This research based on this realistic that weyuhe watershed shanxi province belong to semi-dry and semi-humid area, after a research tradition model to foreign and domestic in this paper, xin’anjiang model, synthesis producing runoff model and advanced xin’anjiang model as producing runoff of forecasting models were selected. The different flood forecasting projects were set up ,by combination producing runoff model、 accordant junction and stream channel’s flow model, applied these projects to wenyuhe reservoir drainage basin, it were satisfied with forecasting results to obtain, it will be provided with positive effects to more research flood forecasting projects in semi-dry and semi-humid region, according to forecasting results, analyzed and compared three producing runoff models in the structure and application, it was suggested and concluded that the synthesis producing runoff model and advanced更多还原