【作者】 韩奇；

【导师】 陈秋波；

【作者基本信息】 华南热带农业大学 ， 环境工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 战略环境评价(SEA),是对法规、政策、规划、计划等战略决策层次进行的环境影响评价,是目前国内外环境学界为实现人与自然和谐而积极研究与实践的一个热点。战略环境评价作为制定改善生态环境政策制度的合理约束,能够有效地减少甚至消除政府战略缺陷对环境产生的不利影响。水安全是生态安全的一个部分,同时也是社会、经济与环境系统安全的基础。区域水安全指的是某一区域水资源及与其相关的水环境能够满足人类社会、经济可持续发展与维持良好生态环境的需求,不受人为干预或自然事件如干旱等所威胁。区域水安全战略环境影响评价是以水安全为基准而进行的战略环评,对象包括区域政策、规划、计划等。水安全战略环境评价的理论基础是可持续发展理论、环境承载力理论、环境系统工程理论、环境经济学理论。区域水安全战略环境评价方法是在对社会经济—水资源水环境耦合系统的层次分析的基础上,建立起来的以安全为基准的综合评价方法。本文采用系统动力学方法构建社会经济——水资源水环境耦合系统的动态模型,并用于进行现状水安全分析与中远期水安全预测分析。对海南省水安全的现状分析结果表明,尽管海南省的水资源丰富,但从2001年以来水安全度有逐年下降的趋势,而同期全国和广东省的水安全度却稳步上升。进一步的分析表明海南省的水资源安全度明显受降水量和水资源总量的影响,而水环境安全度却逐年好转。这说明提高水资源开发利用率是海南确保水安全的重要途径之一。本文尝试对《海南省水资源综合规划》从水安全度的影响进行战略环境评价。评价的结论是:如果按照规划的方案,海南的社会经济系统、水环境质量系统在中远期都处于较安全状态,但水资源安全在中远期有下降的趋势。因此,水资源安全值得高度重视。经过对该规划方案、零方案、专门设计的四个备选替代方案进行环境影响识别和环境影响预测分析,认为采用综合考虑水资源开源、节流、控污和投资效益的设计方案为该规划的替代方案。同时提出减缓安全隐患的措施。系统动力学模型可能不是最优化模型,但从实际的决策过程来看,利用系统动力学模型(用stella系统模型辅助)模拟出的各种决策方案的中长期影响效果,可以帮助我们得到较为满意的方案,比得出唯一的最优化方案更有现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is employed to determine the environmental implications of strategic decisions, such as legislations, policies, plans and programmes. SEA can be used to assess a proposed legislation, policy, plan or programme that has already been developed; or it can be used to develop, evaluate and modify a legislation, policy, plan of programme during its formulation. The purpose of the application of SEA is to minimize or even eliminate negative environmental impacts from governmental strategic decision failure, therefore to achieve the goal of good man-nature harmony. This is why the relatively new and still evolving SEA could attract the interests of environmental academics and professionals as well as government authorities.To be part of ecological security, water security is the foundation of safety of social, economic and environmental systems. Regional water security is defined as water resource and its related environment of a region that can meet the needs of human society, sustainable economic development and maintaining desirable environmental quality despite of any risk or threat from human intervention or natural events such as drought etc. To be more specific, SEA on regional water security assesses the impact of water security from regional policy, plans, or programmes.The theoretical basis of regional water security SEA is the theories and principles of sustainable development, environmental carrying capacity, environmental systems engineering and environmental economics. The methodology adopted for regional water security SEA is an integrated approach with security as its criterion on the basis of hierarchical analysis of social, economic-water resource coupling system. System Dynamics is used to construct dynamic models of social economy-water resource, water environment coupling system, which then are employed in the status-quo analysis and medium and long-term prediction of water security of Hainan Province.The status-quo analysis of water security in Hainan Province indicated that, although relatively abundant water resource is endowed, the water security tended to decrease year by year since 2001 in Hainan, while that of the whole country and of Guangdong Province improved steadily at the same period. Further analysis of the causes for the decrease revealed that the water security was obviously affected by precipitation and total water更多还原