【作者】 丁丽；

【导师】 吴中如；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 水工结构工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 引起堤防工程风险的因素非常复杂,如何评价风险,目前尚未找到较为理想的分析方法。本文在建立堤防工程风险分析模型的基础上,对堤防工程进行了风险评价,主要研究内容如下: (1) 分析了堤防的材质特性、施工、运行方式以及日常管理等方面存在的风险因素,并以堤防的典型失事模式为例,从多个风险因素中挖掘堤防的风险因子,构建了风险因子分析网络体系。 (2) 利用盲数对定性风险因子进行确定性赋值;为改进典型层次分析法中验算判断矩阵一致性的问题,引入G1法对指标权重进行计算;在风险因子量化及赋值的基础上,建立了堤防工程风险因子组合的风险分析模型。 (3) 基于可靠度理论、有限元计算模型和刚体极限平衡原理,分别建立了漫顶失事、渗透破坏和失稳破坏三种随机风险分析模型;并提出了利用隐患系数对渗透破坏随机风险分析模型计算结果进行修正的方法,提高该模型的分析精度。 (4) 从生命损失、经济损失及社会环境损失三个方面研究了溃堤后果的损失计算,针对各种溃堤后果损失形式,探讨了后果严重度的标准,并结合溃堤的可能性和溃堤后果的严重度,确定了风险评价标准。 (5) 以黄河堤防某一堤段为例,分别用所建立的风险分析模型计算该堤段风险率,由此对该堤段风险进行了初步评价。更多还原

【Abstract】 The cause of levee risk is complex. At present, no ideal methods are found to evaluate levee risk. Based on the risk analysis model of the levees, the method of assessment is studied in this paper. The main contents are described as follows:(1) The risk factors of the levees material, construction, operation, and daily maintenance etc are analyzed. Taking typical levee accident model as example, levee risk factors are mined, and then network system of risk factors analysis is established.(2) The qualitative risk factor is quantified by introducing blind data. Index consistent problem of judgment matrix is improved in analytic hierarchy process by using G1 to calculate weighting. Based on the quantification and weighting of risk factors, the risk analysis model of risk factors combination is established.(3) Based on general reliability theory, finite element calculation model and rigid body limit equilibrium method, the risk analysis models of levee overtopping , seepage failure and slide instability failure are constructed individually. The precision of random risk analysis model of seepage failure is improved by using incipient fault value.(4) The loss calculation of levee failure impact from loss of life, economy and environment are analyzed. And then the criterion of loss severity degree is discussed accordingly. Finally, the risk assessment criterion is presented.(5) According to certain levee section of yellow river ,the risk degree is analyzed. On the basis of the analysis result, a preliminary evaluation for the levee is made.更多还原