【作者】 马春杰；

【导师】 李书全；

【作者基本信息】 河北农业大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 党的十六大确定了全面建设小康社会的奋斗目标,强调“高度重视安全生产,确保国家财产和人民生命安全”;2005年2月28日,国家安全生产监督管理局升格为国家安全生产监督管理总局,这说明严峻的安全生产形势暴露出安全生产管理中存在的问题得到了中央领导的高度重视。因此研究安全生产管理问题,具有重要的现实意义。 我国加入WTO后,作为连接水陆经济、贸易、文化的重要交会点-港口,越来越显现出它对区域经济及社会发展的重要促动作用。入世之后,进出口贸易的迅猛增长给港口企业提供了充足的货源,但同时也给港口企业提出了严峻的考验-在现有港口管理模式下,能否即保证港口吞吐量的稳步攀升,又保障港口生产的安全运行。总之,入世使中国港口企业面临着前所未有的机遇与挑战。 本文根据一定的安全科学方法和步骤以及相应的安全法规、条例、标准等,在充分调查研究的基础上,分析港口企业生产过程中各方面的安全因素,对生产的安全状况进行了分析,从而为制定安全评价体系和预警研究提供了科学依据。 本文综合利用安全系统工程、计算机软件工程等理论和先进技术,对安全评价和预警进行了深入地、系统的研究,从而建立了基于支持向量机的港口企业生产安全预警模型。论文的主要内容如下: 1 在研究我国港口企业安全生产管理的现状和存在的问题的同时,介绍了世界发达国家安全生产管理的经验,分析在我国当前形势下,构建港口企业生产安全评价与预警的必要性和迫切性。 2 从体系的建立和系统结构的量化等方面对安全评价框架-安全评价准则体系的建立进行了研究。 3 对支持向量机理论进行基本概念上的介绍,并深入探讨了SVM算法的基本理论。 4 研究了支持向量机在安全预警工作中的工作机理,并将支持向量机应用于安全预警中。 5 总结了本文的研究工作,对今后的研究进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Communist Party the 16th National Congress Convention has set the new objective of the struggle of overall building up well-off society for the whole nation. It is stressed that "highlighting safety production to ensure the security of national property and people’s life". On the Feb. 28th, 2005, the level of National Safety Production Surveillance Administrative Bureau was upgraded as General Bureau of National Safety Production and Surveillance Administration. Such change can be interpreted that the leadership from National Central Communist Party paid a great attention to the existing safety production problems exposed out against the background of rigid safety production situation. As a result, it is realistically significant to study the safety production administration problems in China.After China’s entry into WTO, port as a intersection point connecting land and water economy, trade, and culture, plays a more and more important role than ever before for promoting area economy and social development. After access to WTO, rapid increase of import and export trade has brought sufficient cargo sources to the port business, but at the same time, made port companies face the new ordeal,-----i.e. by the mode of modern port management, whether it is possible to havestable increase of port business throughput without the loss of safety security performance at the port. In general, being a formal WTO membership is presenting to Chinese port enterprises unprecedented opportunities and challenges.In this paper, according to certain safety scientific approaches, steps, relevant codes, standards, criterion, etc., through ample research and study, analyzed every kinds of safety factors and studied the safety status in the production process of port enterprise. Thus it can provide scientific evidence for making safety assessment and producing Safety Early-Warning Model.By synthetically using safety system engineering, computer software engineering theories and advanced technologies, made a profound and systemic research into safety assessment and early-warning working mechanism in this paper, and then established the Safety Early-Warning Model for port enterprise production based on support vector machine. The following are main study contents:1 Through analyzed the present situation of safety production and safety management of Chinese port enterprises and introduced experience and safety management of the developed countries, pointed out that it is great necessary and exigent to establish a new system of safety management imminently for the port production.2 Researched on the framework of safety assessment —Safety Assessment Criteria System in the term of the system foundation and system structural quantifying, etc.3 The basic concept of the support vector machine theory has been introducedand the basic theoretical properties have been deeply discussed.4 This paper studied Support Vector Machine’s (SVM) working mechanism in safety early warning, and applied it to safety early warning.5 Last section draws a conclusion from the whole research and makes an outlook for future works.更多还原