雷电危害风险评估研究

【作者】 尹娜；

【导师】 肖稳安；

【作者基本信息】 南京信息工程大学 ， 气象学， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 由于雷电能造成人员伤亡,能使建筑物起火、击毁,能对电力、电话、计算机及其网络等设备造成破坏,雷电又是年年重复发生的自然现象,因此雷电灾害势必对我国的社会与经济发展造成一定的负面影响。 雷电灾害造成的损失大小是牵涉到社会许多方面的十分复杂的问题,因此,很难精确的计算这种损失。但是,为了保护自身的安全和发展,为了减轻雷电灾害造成的损失和影响,又十分需要了解雷电可能造成的或已经造成的后果,所以就需要对这种损失进行评价和估计,即雷电危害风险评估。 本文先立足于风险评估的基本想法,从理论上对雷电灾害风险评估的概念进行了探索。然后围绕雷电的风险,首先分析雷电的起电机制,找出描述雷电的七个基本参数;接着从雷电灾害性出发,分析雷电放电的危害形式,并针对各种类型的雷电放电,分析其可能造成的后果,进行了雷电危害的分类,并归纳、总结出针对不同种类的建筑物,雷电可能造成的损害。然后依据(风险)=(事件概率)×(可能灾情)的风险计算公式,进行雷电风险评估涉及参数的详细分析,建立雷电灾害风险评估模型,编制雷电灾害风险评估系统程序,根据建筑物所受损害的不同进行雷电灾害风险评估。其评估的基本思路是:首先估算出建筑物可能受损的平均值,再将评估值和建筑物容许的最大累计损害值相比较,检验建筑物是否需要装设防雷装置;还可对已经安装防雷设施的建筑物进行评估,检验其能否起到最好效果。 最后给出了含电子系统的现代建筑的风险评估,作了实例评估与分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 By force of lightning can hurt men, ignite building, and lightning can breakdown electric power, telephonic and computer, even attack the computer network. Then, lightning is a phenomenon of nature which happen year after year. Therefore, the disaster of lightning is sure to have an effect on Chinese development about social and economy.Whereas, it is a quite complicated problem for the amount of damage due to lightning which to be involved in many aspect of social. In such a fashion, it is difficult to count the loss perfect. However, in order to our safety and development, for lightening the damage and influence due of lightning, it is very important to make out the consequences of lightning. So it stand in need of judging or evaluating the damage due to lightning, we call it " Assessment of the risk of damage due to lightning" .At first, this paper based on the idea of risk analysis, the conceptual of risk has been searched after and discussed from in theory. Secondly the research on risk of lightning has been divided into a few of part. Analyze the result mechanism of lightning firstly, get seven basis parameter which describe lightning. Then start from the wrecking of lightning, resolving the consequence of lightning discharge, and the research on all kinds of lightning discharge find out its consequence, then classify disasters of lightning. Thence, we draw a conclusion about the different lightning discharge conduce to different damage due to lightning. Whereafter, reference this formula: Risk=Probability ×Consequences. I particular analyzes the parameters which relate to the assessment of the risk of damage due to lightning, and create the model of assessment of the risk of damage due to lightning, at the same time, I program a assessment of software system about the risk of damage due of lightning in terms of this assessment model. We can estimate the risk of damage due to lightning by different damage. The basic thought of assessmentis: estimate the mean value of a building first. If this value is compared with the value of maximum cumulated damages which could be stand to a building, we can test the building which be installed the arrangements for lightning protection whether or not. Due to the arrangements for lightning protection which had been installed, the idea is in effect still, the proportion of this compare is an important parameter.At last, I refresh a new assessment model about the building which own electronic system, and assess an example about a commercial building.更多还原