【作者】 李亚青；

【导师】 谭忠富； 武圣毅；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（北京） ， 工业工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 电力需求侧管理(DSM)是一种先进的提高电力资源利用效率的管理方法。有效的DSM可以使电力市场的参与各方深受其益。随着太原地区经济的高速发展,电力供需矛盾日益突出,国外和国内的一些地区的成功经验表明在太原地区有必要实施这项科学的资源管理方法。 本文介绍了DSM在国内外的实施情况,分析了太原地区用电市场的现状,采用灰色预测方法对该地区未来几年内的用电情况进行了分析预测,指出了在太原地区实施DSM的必要性。在此基础上,采用考虑不确定因素的DSM向项目成本效益评价方法评价了太原地区实施DSM的成本和效益,结果证明这种方法更加符合太原地区实际情况,更能减少实施中的风险。通过算例分析还指出了有必要建立一种激励机制提高电网公司实施DSM项目的积极性,并且对如何构建激励机制给出了政策性建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Demand-Side Management is an advanced method of management to improve the electric resources’ efficiency. An effective DSM is favorable to all the partners of the electric markets. With the high economic development of the Tai Yuan district, the contradictory between the electric supply and the demand is increasing prominent. The successful experiences of the overseas and our country show that it is necessary for the Tai Yuan district to implement the DSM.Introducing the application of DSM and analyzing the use of electricity in Tai Yuan district, this paper forecasts the electric use of this district for several years using Gray Forecasting Method and points out the necessity of application of DSM for Tai Yuan district. Then the paper appraises the benefits and the costs of the DSM in Tai Yuan using an appraising method considering the uncertain factors. The results show that this method is more suitable for the Tai Yuan district’s realities and can reduce the implementing risks. It also points out that it is necessary to build an encouraging mechanism to drive the grid to implement DSM actively, and provides some suggestions.更多还原