【作者】 兰柏槐；

【导师】 胡小松； 邢黎明；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 种植业， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 本文通过对我国液体奶市场趋势、奶源状况、乳品生产企业成长性分析,得出以下结论: 近年我国奶业已经进入快速发展的新阶段,发展速度连续几年超过两位数(98—03年为15%,2001年为21.9%,2002年为29.5%,2003年为32.8%,2004年为20%)。液体奶产销量逐年增加(2000年为190万吨,2002年为355万吨,2003年为582万吨,2004年为800万吨),液体奶已经成为国内乳品消费市场中的第一大品种。当前奶业市场的竞争有进一步加剧的趋势,这种竞争已有从前的价格竞争转移到质量竞争、服务竞争和细分市场竞争。虽然我国的液体奶行业发展迅速,一旦行业增长停滞,可能会影响整体产业发展。短期内白奶做为产业明星还将是众多液体奶产业发展的最主要增长点。我国液体奶行业扩张速度远大于利润增长速度,企业短期获利能力有限,依靠利润支持扩张可能性小。 从风险\利润、增长\份额、和潜力/利润角度分析乳品企业可知,乳品企业必须依据量利平衡控制好白奶规模,利用合理的定位与创新发展低温产品,积极培育乳饮料明星产品,同时对于多元化的企业,要注重提升冰淇淋品质,突破奶粉的定位瓶颈,走一条和谐发展的路子。只有恰当地把握好我国液体奶市场的中长期发展趋势,企业才能获得竞争优势,才能做大作强。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper the dairy market development trend, the present situation of dairy resource and the business growth potential of dairy enterprise in our country are analyzed, the conclusions are as follows:The dairy industry has speeded up in a new stage in the past years (e.g. the speed of 15% in 1998, 21.9% in 2001, 29.5% in 2002, 32.8% in 2003, and 20% in 2004). The sales volume of liquid dairy products has made it become the first type of brand among the domestic dairy products (e.g. 1.9 million tons in 2000, 3.55 million tons in 2002, 5.82millon tons in 2003, 8 million tons in 2004).The dairy market competition is going fiercer and fiercer. The competition in the dairy products is transferred to the quality competition, service competition and segment market competition instead of the price competition before. Although the rapid growth of the liquid dairy industry ascribes mainly to the white dairy production, the whole industry would be impacted if the growth of white dairy production was stopped. It is hard for the liquid dairy enterprises to obtain an enormous profit in a short term, because the speed of enterprise expansion is much higher than that of profit increase.The analysis on the relations of risk-profit, growth-quota and potential-profit indicated that, in order to gain a harmonious development of dairy enterprises, the white dairy production should be well balanced between quantity and quality, the low temperature products should be reasonably positioned and developed, more star products of dairy beverage should be well encouraged to innovate. Meanwhile, the quality of ice cream products has to be promoted; the powdered milk products need a breakthrough for the re-positioning market. As long as the dairy enterprises could keep eyes on the development trend of liquid dairy market in the medium and long terms, the whole dairy industry would own outstanding competition advantages and be in a win-win situation.更多还原