【作者】 刘海旭；

【导师】 蒲云；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 尽管可靠性分析已经在很多系统(比如电力系统、供水系统及通讯网络等)中得到广泛应用,但是在道路交通网络中的应用还很少。事实上,经济的健康发展很大程度上依赖于稳定可靠的运输网络。特别是随着智能交通运输系统ITS(Intelligent Transponation System)的出现,对运输系统服务水平的稳定可靠的要求与日俱增。然而,有多种随机事件(比如地震、恶劣天气、交通拥堵、交通事故及道路维护等)可以造成对运输系统的破坏。并且这些随机事件中有很多是不可避免的。可靠性分析是减少这些事件造成破坏的前提。城市交通网络作为整个运输网络的关键部分,研究其可靠性具有重要意义。 本论文在已有路网可靠性及相关研究的基础之上,从随机环境下的路径选择行为、信息环境下的路网可靠性等角度出发对城市交通网络的可靠性进行了深入的研究。本文主要内容包括以下几个方面: 分析了随机环境下的路径选择行为,并建立了两种不同的路径选择模型以描述随机环境下的两种可能的路径选择行为。在第一种模型中,假定出行者的广义出行费用定义为平均行程时间和行程时间均方差的线性加权和,同时出行者能够正确认识自己的广义出行费用。权重系数的不同反映了出行者对于风险的不同态度。在第二类模型中,假定出行者在行程时间均值和行程时间可靠性两个目标之间采用均衡策略,并且不能完全正确认识自己的广义出行费用。两类模型的相同之处是:都是对已有确定性环境下的路径选择模型进行修正,在原有模型中引入对随机因素的考虑,从而得到新的模型;两类模型都可以采用比较成熟的算法求解。 讨论了在交通信息影响下,路网中存在的混合路径选择行为以及相应的路径选择模型。针对特定信息系统下的混合平衡问题可以表达为无约束数学规划模型的特点,提出了混合平衡问题的一种基于路段水平的简单的灵敏度分析方法。 考虑了特定交通信息系统下随机路网可靠性问题。首先讨论了路网的容量问题,并建立了随机环境下的路网备用能力的双层规划模型。基于特定测试网络,得出了信息水平的提高往往导致路网容量可靠性的下降,但同时提高了行程时间可靠性的结论。通过对不同路段通行能力分布下的路网可靠性进行比较,指出了不同的路段通行能力分布对于路网可靠性评估结果有重要更多还原

【Abstract】 Though reliability analysis has been extensively employed in many systems (e.g., power systems, water supply systems, communication networks, etc.), very little attention has been given to reliability analysis of road networks. In fact, good development of the economies heavily depends upon reliable transportation systems. Especially with the advent of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), demands for better and more reliable services are increasing. However, there are numerous stochastic events (e.g., earthquakes, traffic congestion, accidents, bad weather, road maintenance, etc.) that disrupt the transportation system. Many of these events are unavoidable. Reliability analysis is a prerequisite to minimize the disruption that such events cause. Urban transportation is the critical part of the whole transportation system, so the importance of studying its reliability cannot be overemphasized.On the basis of existing road network reliability and relevant study, this dissertation makes an in-depth study of the urban transportation network reliability from the aspects of route choice behavior under uncertain and road network reliability in the context of information. The main contents contained in this dissertation are as follows:The route choice behavior under uncertain environment is analyzed. Two different route choice models are set up to describe two possible route choice behaviors in the face of uncertain travel times. In the first model users’ generalized travel cost are assumed to be weighted sum of the standard deviation and the mean travel time, and users have perfect knowledge of the road network condition. The different weights reflect the travelers’ different attitude towards the risk. In the second model, users’ route choice decisions are assumed to be tradeoff between travel time and travel time reliability and users only have partial knowledge of the road network condition. The similarities of the two kinds of models are that they both revise the existing models through introducing uncertainty into it. So existing mature algorithms can be used to solve them.The mixed route choice behaviors and corresponding route choice model under the influence of traffic information are discussed. Because mixed更多还原