【作者】 张晓娟；

【导师】 武拉平；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 产业经济学， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 从全球的视角来看,玉米的流通和贸易逐渐成为人们关注的热点之一,而我国玉米的贸易不论是进口还是出口都表现出较强的“大国”效应,本文主要对中国玉米流通和贸易及其玉米在主要出口目的国市场份额进行分析,首先总结了玉米国内区域流通格局的演变,通过对玉米供求的分析,探讨玉米流向、流通途径和方式,构建了简单的玉米需求指标对我国稳定的玉米调出省和调入省进行分析,并对未来我国玉米的流通格局进行讨论,认为受WTO规则的制约和玉米经营主体自主性以及利润最人化的驱使,一体化市场形成的步伐加速,“南进北出”的局面完全形成。其次,从中国玉米的贸易波动情况、国内玉米进出口地区结构以及出口目标市场几个方面,阐述了中国玉米的贸易格局和国际地位,同时说明中国玉米巨大的产量、储备量和贸易量决定在了其在国际经济中的重要地位。再次,运用市场份额分析法,定量描述玉米最近几年期间竞争效应、市场规模效应、分配效应在此期间所起的作用,从而说明了竞争效应、分配效应对玉米的出口量的变化有重要的作用,尤其竞争效应作用最大,在国家产业政策的调整下,提高玉米的国际竞争力,仍然是维护我国玉米贸易地位的主要途径。然后,运用贸易的“第三方影响模型”,该模型考虑竞争对手美国的情况下,研究本国玉米在出口目的国的市场份额及其变化,将汇率变量引入模型,并且检验汇率变动对中国玉米贸易量的影响,实证分析了主要进出口国汇率变动对中国玉米市场份额的影响程度。模型研究结果表明,美国的玉米出口价格对中国在主要玉米进口国家的市场份额有重要的影响作用,美国汇率的变动对中国玉米的出口市场份额影响较大。因此,中国的玉米进出口市场受到美元汇率变化的影响,一旦汇率做出调整,而平衡点应取决于人民币升值的幅度大小和国内进出口政策的调整取向。 基于上面几个方面的分析,同时分析了中国玉米市场几个重要的相关问题,最后得山各章相应的结论和对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper mainly analyzes domestic and international corn trade patterns, particularly market share of china in corn importing countries. Firstly, summarizing the evolution of domestic corn trade pattern, then discussing the domestic corn trade flows and channels, and develops a simple corn demand index to analyze corn flow trend. As china entering WTO and it’s grain market integrated into international market,"Nan Liang Bei Yun" and "Nan Jin Bei Chu" has becoming the main pattern. Secondly, the paper discusses Chinese corn international trade partem and the role of Chinese corn in world corn economy, according to the Chinese corn production, stock and trade volumes.Besides, a framework market share analysis is applied to analyzes Chinese corn exports, by calculating"distribution"effect,"competitive"effect and "size of markef’effect in the given time periods. The results show that"competitive" effect is more important for Chinese corn export than other effects.Finally, in order to analyze the impact of competition among exporting counties, a third country effect model is developed. Considering the country effect to minimize a specification bias problem that arise from the fact the unilateral trade flows depend not only on the costs of purchasing grain from an exporting country but also on the costs of purchasing grain from competitions of the exporting country. In the model ,exchange rate and volatities in exchange rates as main variables, the result indicates that U.S exchange rate against importing countries is significant for corn export market shares of china. Based on above analysis and discussion on other corn market problems, some conclusions and suggestions are provided.更多还原