我国货币政策有效性与汇率制度选择研究

【作者】 钟茗；

【导师】 姜凌；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 世界经济， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 货币政策有效性是指在特定的金融环境和制度条件下,货币当局运用一定的政策工具与政策手段制定的货币政策,通过特定的传导机制,能否稳定地影响实际产出,从而达到当局预定的政策目标。传统意义上,汇率制度被界定为有关汇率决定及其调节的一系列制度性安排和规定。对汇率制度分类的标准,国际上还存在较大的争议,主流的分类法有 IMF 的法定分类法和事实分类法(以 LYS 分类法为代表)。采用 IMF 1999 年的汇率制度分类方案以及对中间汇率制度内涵所进行的界定,我国现行的有管理的浮动汇率制度是介于浮动汇率和固定汇率之间更靠近固定汇率制的一种汇率制度安排。 事实证明,不同的汇率制度安排影响着政府宏观货币政策的效力。就我国实际情况而言,汇率制度与货币政策的冲突反映了当前经济体系内部蕴涵的矛盾。随着商品、资本和劳动力等要素的国际流动,我国经济与世界经济相互依存度增加,外部均衡问题进一步突现,并且经济的开放性使原先的内部均衡发生深刻的变化,内部均衡和外部均衡发生冲突。其中,最明显的是汇率制度的安排与货币政策有效性的冲突,这种冲突不仅增加了宏观调控的难度,而且不同政策间目标的冲突更增加了宏观政策调节机制发挥作用的复杂性。谢平等(2002)研究显示,1993 年之前,货币政策和汇率政策的协调在我国的宏观调控中货币政策和汇率政策几乎完全分离。而 1994 年以来,货币政策和汇率政策出现了三次明显的冲突,这三次冲突的实质是独立货币政策(基础货币投放适度、人民币利率水平可控)和汇率政策(稳定汇率)的关系问题。但是,世界经济发展的实践证明,任何一种国际货币体系安排都不是完美的,而只有根据本国和世界经济发展的整体情况来选择适合于本国的国际货币体系安排才是最适宜的。 在国际经济一体化的趋势下,许多发展中国家 (特别是受到金融危机冲击的国家 )也逐步在接受浮动汇率制度,这是世界经济发展的必然结果,是开放经济国家适应世界经济一体化的需要所采取的相应的汇率制度调整。从长期来看,在经济全球化进程的加快的同时,国II际间相互影响经济的因素在增多,我国建立具有相对有利的且能够熨平国际间经济波动的浮动汇率制度是势在必行的。国内外研究货币政策有效性和汇率制度选择的文献很多,其中一个突出的特点是在研究方法上注重内外均衡的宏观研究,研究的结论也千差万别。其中,最具有代表性的是以 Mundell-F1eming 模型为代表的宏观经济均衡论,到目前为止,它仍是汇率制度选择理论的主流,M-F 模型更是成为了对汇率制度选择进行宏观静态分析的基础。宏观经济均衡论往往将货币政策的有效性、汇率制度选择、资本的流动性纳入统一的分析框架来进行研究,汇率政策与货币政策的协调是实现资本项目有条件开放下经济内外均衡的关键。我国近年来汇率政策目标和货币政策有效性之间存在矛盾与冲突,都可以归结为我国开放经济条件下的货币政策与汇率政策的权衡。基于此,本文仅以我国货币政策的有效性与汇率制度选择作为研究视角,研究我国当前特定的经济金融运行环境下货币政策的有效性与汇率制度选择之间的理论逻辑与现实关系,其目的在于为我国货币政策的制定与汇率制度安排提供具有重要的理论依据和现实指导。研究我国货币政策有效性与汇率制度选择关键涉及到下列问题:第一,汇率制度是内生的还是由央行决定而外生于经济体的?汇率制度应该作为单独的政策来研究,还是放入货币政策的整体框架内来理解?汇率制度分类与选择的标准是什么?第二,现有的汇率制度选择理论的研究视角很多,如何系统的从经济学研究的理论体系和方法论的角度去把握汇率选择的实质?从现有的汇率制度选择理论中,如何构建货币政策有效性与汇率制度选择两者相结合的统一分析框架?如何针对我国实际情况构建理论模型予以解释现实?第三,我国现行的汇率制度状况如何,这种汇率制度安排与货币政策有效性间的相互关系是什么?存在哪些缺陷?我国的汇率制度选择受哪些重要因素的影响?在未来的开放经济环境下,我国汇率制度改革与演进路线和过程是如何安排?为什么?基于对以上几个问题的思考,全文分为五章进行研究:III第一章,绪论。介绍了本文的研究背景与意义,研究方法、思路与主要内容。第二章,货币政策有效性界定与汇率制度分类。本章主要包括以下内容:合理界定货币政策有效性的内涵与外延;在研究汇率制度分类标准的基础上,提出本文的分类依据并分析我国汇率制度的类型及实质,为后续章节理论模型的构建奠定基础。第三章,货币政策有效性与汇率制度选择的理论依据。本章从汇率制度选择的理论体系与方法论的角度归纳总结汇率制度选择理论的现有成果和发展方向,并结合汇率制度选择理论探讨汇率制度的内生性与外生性问题;在汇率制度选择的宏观经济均衡分析框架下,重点介绍了 Mundell-F1eming 模型以及在此基础上推出的“三元悖论”;然后,在引入扩展的三角假说和四面体假说的基础上,进一步讨论了三元悖论在汇率制度选择中的适用性问题;最后,通过构建“中央银行损失成本最小化模型”,将货币政策独立性与汇率制度作为整体性因素纳入模型分析的框架,来进?更多还原

【Abstract】 The monetary policy effectiveness means under the condition of particular financial environment and system, whether the monetary policy which is drawn up by monetary authorities can influence the output to attain the policy target or not. On the traditional meaning, exchange rate regime is a series of arrangements and regulations on how to determine the level and the pattern of the exchange rate by the monetary authorities. To the standard of the classification of exchange rate regime, there are still a lot of controversies. The main classification methods are IMF legal classification method and fact classification method. Adopting the method of IMF in 1999, China currently exchange rate regime is between the floating exchange rate system and the fix exchange rate system ,even close to fix exchange rate system arrangement. The fact proves that the different exchange rate regime arrangement affects the effectiveness of the macro-monetary policy. In regard to our country actual circumstance, the conflict of exchange rate regime and monetary policies reflected the internal antinomy of current economic system. With the international flows of factors, such as commodities, capital and labor force...etc., China economy depends on the world economy closer and closer and the problem of exterior equilibrium and internal equilibrium have emerged. The conflict of the exchange rate regime and the effectiveness of monetary policies is the most obvious. Not only this kind of conflict adds the difficulty of the macro-control, but also the conflict of different policy target adds the complexity of the macro-control mechanism. In recent years, the conflict of the exchange rate regime and the effectiveness of monetary policies in our country can come down to the balance of the monetary policy and the exchange rate policy. According to this, from the angle of the exchange rate system and the effectiveness of monetary policies in our country, this thesis will research the theory logic and real relation between the exchange rate regime and the effectiveness of monetary policy of our country in current particular financial environment. The research purpose lies in providing gist in theory and guidance about the monetary police making and exchange rate arrangements for our country. Studying our country monetary policy validity and the exchange rate regime involves the following problem: The first, whether the exchange rate regime is intrinsic or can be decided by the central bank? The exchange rate regime should be seemed as a separate policy to study, or put into the whole frame of monetary policy? What is the standard of exchange rate regime classification and selection? The second, there are abundant theories on the selection of the exchange rate regime. How to hold the nature of the selection of exchange rate regime systemically from the angle of the economic system info and methodologies? From the existing exchange rate regime selection theories, how to set up a whole analytical frame to combine the monetary policy effectiveness and the exchange rate regime together? How to explain the reality aiming at the actual circumstance of our country? The third, what’s about China’s current exchange rate regime condition? Which important factors influence the selection of the exchange rate regime? Thinking of above problems, I divided the full text into five chapters: Chapter 1 is the introduction. It mainly introduces the research purpose, significance, studying method and main content in this paper. Chapter 2 is the definition of monetary policy effectiveness and the classification of exchange rate regime. In studying the standard of theexchange rate regime classification, the thesis puts forward the type and substance of china’s exchange rate regime, which lay the foundation for the following chapter theoretic model. Chapter 3 is about the theories of monetary policy effectiveness and the selection of the exchange rate regime. This chapter introduces the existing results and the developing directions of the selection of the exch更多还原