大型变压器运行寿命预测研究

【作者】 郭世照；

【导师】 张波；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 电气工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济的迅速发展,人民生活质量的不断提高,用户对电能质量的要求越来越高,对电力系统的可靠性也提出了越来越高的要求。特别是《中华人民共和国电力法》的颁布和实施,以及电力行业服务承诺制的开展,电力系统可靠性在生产和管理工作中的地位日益重要。变压器作为电力系统中变换电压、交换功率的枢纽,随着电力系统电压等级的不断提高,网络的日益复杂,它的作用越来越重要,其安全可靠运行直接影响到电力系统的安全水平。因此,对变压器进行可靠性评估,对提高整个电力系统的可靠性水平有着十分重要的意义。 变压器的寿命曲线与电子产品的寿命曲线不同,并不服从指数分布。本文采用定时截尾的试验方法,对国内某变压器厂生产的某种型号的变压器的实际运行情况进行研究。本文只统计造成变压器必须退出运行的故障,研究这类失效应把变压器看成是不可修复系统,其最主要的指标是失效率。本文提出了数据处理和失效率的统计方法。这些变压器虽然不是同一时刻投入运行的,但经过处理可以认为是同时投入运行的,经分析可以得到变压器的故障率离散点,由故障率可以得到可靠度函数,运用威布尔分布概率纸可以验证变压器的寿命曲线服从威布尔分布。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of economy and the improvement in life quality of the people, the requirement to the electric energy quality of user has been more and more rigorous. Accordingly higher requirement to reliability of electric power system has been put forward.. Especially with the issuance and implementation of the electric power law of P.R.C and the initiation of professed service of power industry, the reliability of electric power system plays a increasingly important part in power production and management. Transformer is the hinge of transforming voltage and exchanging power. With the advancing of the voltage and increasingly complex of the network, the function of the transformer is more and more important in power system. Its operation in safety and reliability directly influence the security of the power system. So it’s very significant to evaluate the reliability of transformer to improve the reliability of the power system.The life curve of the transformer is different from life curve of the electronic product and it disobeys the exponential distribution. The thesis studies the actual operation activity of a certain transformer using the method of fixed time censoring. The thesis only counts the failure that leads the transformer to quit operation, regarding the transformer as Non-repairable system whose main index is failure rate. The thesis puts forward the method to process the data and count the failure rate. After primary dealing with the data, we can think that the transformer were put into operation at the same time though actually they were not so. Through analyzing the data, the thesis gets the dispersed points of failure rate and then calculates Reliability Function. It verifies that the life curve of transformer obeys Weibull distribution using Weibull distribution probability paper.更多还原