【作者】 邹瑾；

【导师】 王启；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 气象学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 本研究利用1951-2002年山东省80个地面观测站夏季(6—8月)高温资料和美国国家环境预报中心与美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR／NCEP)再分析月平均资料，分析了山东省夏季高温异常的时空分布特征和年代际变化规律，将异常多、少高温年对应的同期和前期大气环流特征进行了对比分析，讨论了500hPa高度异常场和海温异常场与山东夏季高温异常的联系，找出了影响山东省夏季高温异常的主要影响因子和关键区。 山东省夏季高温主要分布特征是内陆高于沿海，平原高于山地；内陆大部分地区的高温天气主要出现在6、7月份，半岛和东南沿海地区多出现在7月份；40℃以上的极端最高气温主要分布在山东省西部地区，且多出现在6月份。 运用经验正交函数展开(EOF)和旋转经验正交展开(REOF)方法，分析了山东省夏季高温40年的时空分布特征和区域异常特征。发现山东省夏季高温分布的主要特征是呈现总体一致型，即全省夏季同热同凉，其次是“西北-东南”反位相型和“东北-西南”反位相型，这三种空间分布型分别有各自的变化规律；高温异常区主要分布在鲁西北、鲁西南、鲁东南和山东半岛内陆地区。 山东省夏季高温表现出明显的年际和年代际变化。20世纪50～60年代高温年较多，60年代后期高温年开始减少，80年代高温年最少，90年代～21世纪初，高温年开始增多，但仍然不如50～60年代。近50多年来，山东夏季高温经历了一次“下降—上升”的气候变化过程，大约在60年代后期至70年代初期发生了一次由强到弱，由多到少的显著跃变。 根据山东省夏季高温指数得到异常多高温年和异常少高温年，对其同期夏季和前期春季各层大气环流形势进行了合成分析。结果表明，异常多高温年，夏季控制我国的蒙古热低压系统明显偏强，欧亚地区中纬度大气环流盛行纬向环流，副热带高压系统偏弱，位置偏东偏北；异常少高温年正好相反，控制我国的蒙古热低压系统明显偏弱，欧亚地区中纬度大气环流盛行经向环流，副热带高压系统偏强，位置偏西偏南。前期春季各层大气环流特征也存在明显的差异：异常少高温年，前期春季欧亚地区盛行经向环流，东亚大槽较深，蒙古冷高压势力较强；异常多高温年正好相反，前期春季欧亚地区盛行纬向环流，东亚大槽较浅，蒙古冷高压势力偏弱。 运用相关系数和奇异值分解(SVD)方法，诊断分析了山东省夏季高温与同期和前期春季500hPa高度场的关系，得知乌拉尔山地区、里海-波斯湾地区、西太平洋副热带地区的高度场是影响山东夏季高温异常的关键区，与山东省夏季高温有明显的负相关关系。从而分析出前期春季欧亚槽偏深、乌拉尔阻高偏弱、西太平洋副高偏弱是山东省内陆大部分地区夏季炎热的主要影响因素，而前期春季欧亚槽偏浅、乌拉尔阻高偏强、西太平洋副高偏强是山东省内陆大部分地区夏季凉爽的主要影响因子。 通过分析与前期赤道东太平洋(NIN01+2区)各月海温之间的相关关系，发现山东夏季高温与赤道东太平洋海温主要表现为负相关，与上年3月有显著的负相关关系。 运用奇异值分解(S VD)方法，分析了太平洋海表面温度与山东夏季高温的关系。得出西太平洋暖池和夏威夷岛附近的海表面温度是影响山东省内陆大部分地区夏季高温异常的关键区。更多还原

【Abstract】 Base on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly mean data and the data of summer high-temperature in 80 meteorological observation stations in Shandong province from 1951 to 2002, spatial and temporal characteristics of summer high-temperature are analyzed, and the relations between the atmospheric circulation and high-temperature patterns , and those between Pacific sea surface temperature and summer high-temperature are discussed. The factors and "key regions" which have important influence on summer high-temperature in Shandong are discovered.There are more summer hot days in the inland of Shandong than in coastland, and more in plain than in mountainous area. The hot days occur in June and July in most Shandong inland, and often occur in July in the area of Shandong peninsula and coastland. The hot days which reach above 40 degrees centigrade mostly emerge in the western part of Shandong, and usually emerge in June.The high-temperature data from 80 gauge stations in Shandong are analyzed by means of EOF and REOF. The results indicate that there are three main patterns for the summer high-temperature. The first pattern is synchronized in all area of Shandong province, the second is out of phase with northwestern part and southeastern part, and the third is out of phase with northeastern part and southwestern part. The high-temperature anomaly mainly occurs in the northwest area, southwest area, southeast area and the inland of Shandong peninsula.There was apparent annual and decadal variation for summer hot days in Shandong. The annual number of hot summer was highest during 1950’s and 1960’s, and began to drop at the end of 1960’s, after arriving the lowest in 1980’s, then increased from 1990’s to the early of 21 century. In recently more than 50 years, there was a course of down to up climatic change for the summer hot days, and an evident transition from more to less, strong to weak had happened about at the end of 1960’s.The relation between the atmospheric circulation and high-temperature patterns during summer in Shandong province is discussed. The results indicate that the composite of the atmospheric circulation in hot summer is very different from that in cool summer. In hot summer, Mongolia warm-core low is stronger, and the western Pacific subtropical high is weaker and its location is usually to the north and east, while it is reverse in cool summer. Latitude circulations exist in the fields of 500hPa height in hot summers and longitude circulations exist in cool summers. In spring before cool summer, the trough in east Asia is deeper and Mongolia high is stronger, while it is reverse in spring before hot summer.The relationship between 500hPa height fields and summer high-temperature in Shandong province is studied by using the correlative coefficient analysis and thesingular value decomposition (SVD) technique. The results show that there is apparent negative correlation between summer high-temperature in Shandong and the geopotential height of 500hPa over Ural area, the area from the Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf and over the subtropical west Pacific, and these regions are "key regions". In the preceding spring, the deeper trough in Eurasia and the distinctly lowered geopotential height of Ural area and the weaker western Pacific subtropical high are the main causes of numbers of hot days during summer, and the flatter trough in Eurasia and the distinctly higher geopotential height of Ural area and the stronger western Pacific subtropical high are the main causes of few hot days during summer, hence it can be factors through which to forecast the summer hot days in Shandong province.The relations between extreme high-temperature and the sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific are studied, there is apparent negative correlation between the summer extreme high-temperature of Shandong and the preceding monthly sea surface temperature of the eastern equatorial Pacific, especially in March last year.The relationship between the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and summer更多还原