应对长鞭效应的需求信息共享研究

【作者】 简睿；

【导师】 刘伟；

【作者基本信息】 上海海事大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 进入90年代，供应链管理成为学术界和企业界关注的热点。高效的供应链管理有助于企业充分挖掘自身的潜力，构筑企业的核心竞争力，迎接市场需求不确定和技术革新带来的挑战。在供应链中普遍存在着长鞭效应现象，长鞭效应是指供应链末端的需求变异随着需求信息向供应链上游传递的过程中会被逐级放大，亦即供应链上游企业所面对的订单变异远大于实际终端的需求变异。长鞭效应会造成供应链系统的无效运作，从而导致存货过多、生产预测出现误差、产能失衡、顾客服务水平下降等等。因此，若能有效地抑制供应链中的长鞭效应，可增加企业10—30％的获利能力，故充分了解和掌握长鞭效应的成因和对策是提升供应链效率的关键。 论文阐述了长鞭效应对供应链经营业绩的影响；长鞭效应的成因以及长鞭效应成因的经济学解释；并在国内外学者研究的基础上，分析了抑制长鞭效应的相应对策。通过分析发现需求信息共享是减缓长鞭效应的重要途径，但是要真正实现供应链上各节点企业的需求信息共享却是十分困难的。本文通过构建一个由零售商和生产商组成的两级供应链模型，定量分析了需求信息共享对零售商和生产商的影响，以此找到了零售商不愿共享需求信息的真实原因：需求信息共享能使生产商的平均库存减少、期望库存费用和缺货费用降低，但是并不能给信息的发布者零售商带来收益。针对这种情况，本文运用委托一代理理论的思想，从上游生产商的角度出发，提出生产商通过与零售商共享供货量信息和缩短零售商订货提前期的激励方案促使下游零售商与生产商共享需求信息，以此实现供应链上企业间的需求信息共享，从而有效地减缓长鞭效应。最后，本文引入新兴的信息系统外包模式——应用服务提供商ASP(Application Service Provider)，作为供应链企业间信息共享的一种实现形式，并以ASP为例分析了信息系统外包租用的价值和风险，通过分析得出供应链上的企业在实施需求信息共享时，是选择自建信息系统还是外包租用的决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1990s, the issue of the supply chain management (SCM) is getting more and more popular in academic circle and enterprises. Efficient SCM enables enterprises to exert their potential fully, to construct their core competitive advantages and so as ,to meet challenges caused by uncertain market and rapid technical innovation. There is one common phenomenon in the supply chain called "bullwhip effect". The so-called bullwhip effect is that tiny changes of demand downstream will cause enormous fluctuation upstream. The closer to the upstream, the bigger the fluctuation. It can lead to tremendous inefficiency for the supply chain, consequently followed by excessive inventory, imbalance between demand and manufacturing capacity, and reduction of customer service level. If given appropriate treatment, eliminating the bullwhip effect can increase enterprise’s profitability by 10-30%. So the mastery of its causes and countermeasures is critical to enhance efficiency in the supply chain.This dissertation elaborates the impacts of bullwhip effect upon supply chain, illuminates the causes of bullwhip effect and its economic explanation. On the basis of scholars’s researches, this dissertation brings forward correspondent countermeasures against bullwhip effect. It is discussed that sharing of demand information is an important way to eliminate bullwhip effect. However, it is difficult for varied enterprises in the supply chain to share demand information completely. This dissertation establishes a two- stage supply chain model made up of retailer and manufacturer, analyzes quantificationally the impacts of information sharing upon enterprises in the supply chain. It is argued that demand information sharing can reduce manufacturer’s average inventory, expected inventory cost and shortage cost, while it can’t bring benefits to retailer. On the basis of the concept of Principal-Agent theory, this dissertation expatiates on two incentive strategies inorder to share demand information in the supply chain. One is that manufacturer should share supply information with the retailer, the other is that manufacturer reduces retailer’s order lead-time. In this way, we can reduce bullwhip effect effectively. At the end of the dissertation, a new information system outsourcingmodel-ASP (Application Service Provider) is introduced as one method ininformation sharing amongst enterprises in the supply chain. Then taking ASP as an example, the writer analyses the value and risk of chartering information system and concludes the decision standard of information system established by the enterprise itself or chartering.Jian Rui (transport planning and management) Directed by Prof. Liu Wei更多还原