【作者】 刘谦；

【导师】 曾金平； 谢正辉；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 计算数学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 本研究以大尺度陆面水文模型VIC为基础，模拟中国区域内各流域的径流分布情况。基于50×50km~2网格分辨率，将全国划分为4355个网格，结合1：25万全国数字高程模型、土地利用、植被和土壤分类等地理信息，确定中国区域内运行VIC模型所需参数。VIC模型中新的地表径流参数化方案考虑了蓄满产流、超渗产流机制，以及土壤性质非均匀性对产流的影响。本研究将该参数化方案应用到整个中国区域，定性分析模型计算的水资源量在全国空间分布上的合理性，结果表明模拟的平均年径流量与观测的平均年降雨量在空间分布上具有较好的一致性。为了检验VIC模型的模拟性能，本研究选取淮河和黄河流域作为研究对象，结合汇流模型，利用单位线法计算坡面汇流，线性圣维南方法计算河道汇流，将流域内各网格中模拟的日径流汇至流域出口断面，然后将VIC模型模拟的月流量过程与相应的水文站实测月流量资料进行比较，结果表明该模型对径流的模拟具有一定的合理性与适应性。 尽管VIC模型中绝大多数参数都可通过地理信息来确定，但一些敏感性参数还须通过观测的流量资料来标定。为了标定无资料地区的模型参数，本研究介绍了一种参数移植方法将资料丰富地区的参数移植到资料匮乏区域。该方案将全国划分为不同的气候区域，然后选取各气候区中的部分子流域进行参数的率定，并将结果移植到同类气候区的其它流域，以检验参数移植后模型的模拟性能。与以往工作中对无资料区域选取统一参数相比，该参数移植方案可提高模型的模拟精度。 此外，本研究将VIC模型与区域气候模式PRECIS相结合，预测气候变化对中国水资源的影响。根据PRECIS模式在基准年(1961～1990年)、IPCC温室气体释放情景特别报告SRES中A2情景下(2071～2079年)，及B2情景下(2071～2090年)的输出结果，利用VIC模型模拟上述三种气候情景下全国各省多年平均径流深变化情况。结果表明在A2和B2情景中尽管降雨有所增加，但与基准年相比，模拟的平均年径流深在北方减少，而在南方增加，说明气候变化将进一步加剧我国洪涝灾害的状况。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper presents an application of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrological model to simulate runoff for river basins in China. The entire land area of China is represented by 4355 cells with a spatial resolution of 50 X 50km2 for each cell. Most of the parameters needed by VIC are derived from geographic information, such as the 1:250 000 digital elevation model data, land use, vegetation and soil classification data. The VIC model combined with a new surface runoff parameterization, which takes into account the effects of soil heterogeneity on Horton and Dunne runoff, is applied to runoff simulation over the mainland area of China. The qualitative analysis shows that the spatial patterns of the simulated mean annual runoff and precipitation are consistent with each other. To test the modeling performance of the VIC model, streamflow simulation is conducted in catchments within Huaihe and Yellow River Basins, where a routing scheme with the unit hydrograph method for overland flow and the linear Saint-Venant method for channel flow is used to route the simulated daily runoff to the outlet of each catchment. Then, the simulated monthly runoff of VIC is compared to the monthly observed streamflow at the related gauge stations. Results show that the model can simulate the observationsaccurately.Generally, although most of parameters can be deduced from geographic information, some sensitive parameters in VIC have to be calibrated based on observed streamflow data. To calibrate model parameters where measured discharge data is unavailable, a methodology for model parameter transfer is introduced to transfer model parameters from data-rich areas to data-sparse areas. As a first attempt to transfer parameter, the land area in China is grouped by climate zones. The model parameters are calibrated for some catchments within zones, and then transferred to other catchments within the similar zones to validate the model performances. The transfer scheme can improve the simulation results as compared with the case of using uniform model parameters to data-sparse areas in previous work.In addition, the VIC model is coupled with the Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model to predict the effects of climate change on water resources in China. By using the results from PRECIS on reference years (1961-1990), A2 (2071-2079) scenario and B2 (2071-2090) scenario, which were developed in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), the VIC model is used to calculate the corresponding runoff changes in each province of ChinaIIin response to different climate scenarios. Results show that compared with the case in on reference years, mean annual runoff under A2 and B2 scenarios is predicted to be a decrease in the north and an increase in the south of China in spite of a rise in precipitation, which indicates more serious and frequent floods and drought in the future of China.更多还原