【作者】 李俣继；

【导师】 杨梅忠；

【作者基本信息】 西安科技大学 ， 地质工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 合阳县位于陕西省关中地区渭北黄土台塬以东，与黄河相邻。历年来受该地区的地质构造、地形地貌、地层岩性、河流以及人类工程活动等的影响，地质灾害频繁发生，严重威胁着人类生命财产安全，制约了当地的经济发展。本文以系统的观点，开展了合阳县地质灾害的研究。本文在野外现场调查与合阳县地质资料详尽分析的基础上，概要总结了合阳县地质灾害类型、规模及发育特征。在合阳县地质灾害特性的分析中，考虑到合阳县地质条件复杂，自然和人为致灾因子众多，且各因子之间相互关联密切，单一的理论和分析方法已经无法满足研究与防治的要求，因此，将合阳县地质灾害作为一个系统来研究。作者以系统的观点，分析阐述了合阳县地质灾害系统特性，即复杂关联性、自组织性、分形分维及突变性，并利用灰色关联分析，确定出合阳县地质灾害系统中最大关联度的影响因子—降雨因子，这为合阳县地质灾害的预警提供参考了依据。本文还利用分形理论，得出合阳县地质灾害系统具有空间分形特征，且分维值为1.03，作为表征研究对象几何复杂程度和几何分布关系的参数，使得地质灾害系统的复杂程度有了定量的量化指标。在合阳县地质灾害的稳定性评价与预测中，运用了GM(1,1)灰色模型对滑坡位移进行了预测和利用MAPGIS的空间分析功能对合阳县地质灾害进行了区域预测，并作出了合阳县地质灾害发展趋势预测图。最后利用模糊综合评判作出合阳县地质灾害易发分区图，并结合当地经济发展规划，作出合阳县地质灾害防治规划图，对合阳县地质灾害的预防、预警有很大参考和指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Heyang country is located in the east of Weibei loess plain in Guanzhong district of Shann’xi province and adjoint of Yellow River. Geological disaster often occur and strongly threaten human being’s life、wealth、safeness by the influence of geologic structure、topographical ground feature、stratum rock gender、river and humanity engineering activity for years. This thesis study geological disaster of Heyang in the point of system. On the basis of out-site inspection and detailed analysis of geology data, the author summaries the geological disaster type、scale and development feature of Heyang country. Duo to Heyang country’s geology conditions complexity、nature and factitious convulsion factors and each factor incident with one another intimately, single theory and analytic method already can’t satisfy requirement, So, Heyang country geological disaster must be study by one system. This thesis formulize geology disaster system’s character-complexity relevance、self-organization、fractal and catastrophe. Affecting factor-rainfall of the best of relevance grade is concluded in the use of grey relevance analysis and It provides reference of geology disaster prediction. This paper use the fractal theory to get the Heyang geological disaster system’s dimension, which is 1.03. The parameter of special fractal feature、object geometric complexity and geometric distribution relationship, get to quantification indicator of geological disaster system’s complexity .In the stability evaluation and forecasting of the Heyang geological disaster , the author uses GM(1,1) model to forecast the displacement of the landslide , makes the performance of MAPGIS spatial analysis forecasting the tendency of the disaster , and works out the figure of the disaster development. This paper finally works out the occurrence deci-district figure and geology disaster protect plan map in the use of fuzzy comprehensive judgment and local economic development planning. This will provide good consult and guidance for prevention of geological disaster in Heyang country. <WP=4>更多还原