【作者】 闫乐林；

【导师】 徐精彩；

【作者基本信息】 西安科技大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 煤矿生产系统是一个复杂的多因素、多变量、多层次的人-机-环境系统，对其进行安全评价涉及诸多不确定信息。本文在分析随机信息、模糊信息、灰色信息和未确知信息优缺点基础之上，应用未确知数学理论，将未确知信息和未确知测度评价方法引入煤矿企业的安全评价，基于现场实践经验，提出了煤矿安全综合评价的一种新思路，即将未确知测度和盲数均值理论与安全检查表相结合，对矿井安全水平进行综合评价，得出矿井的安全等级。应用未确知测度评价方法进行综合评价时，最重要的是评价因素体系的建立和各因素权重的确定。依据事故理论的综合观点，建立了多层次的煤矿安全评价因素体系，并采用了改进型的层次分析法（AHP）确定评价因素权重，使权重的赋值更加科学、合理，较好的反映了各因素对矿井安全现状的重要程度。建立了矿井安全综合评价的未确知测度数学模型，划分了安全因素的安全等级，并在专家可信度的基础上研究了不确定性结论合成的MAMB方法。最后，将所研究的未确知测度评价方法应用于黄陵双龙煤矿，得出该矿井的安全等级。应用实例表明：未确知测度综合评价方法可操作性强、效果较好，可以在一般工业企业的安全评价中广泛应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The production system in coal mine is a complicated human-machine-environment one with multi-factor, multi-variable, and multi-level. Therefore, its safety evaluation involves a lot of uncertain information. On the basis of analysis about the advantages and disadvantages of random information, fuzzy information, grey information and unascertained information, this paper utilizes unascertained mathematics theory and applies unascertained information and measure evaluation into the safety evaluation in coal mine. Also, according to practical experience on the scene, this paper draws up a new view about safety comprehensive evaluation in coal mine, namely, it combines unascertained measure with the theory of even value of blind number. Besides, the safety degree of mine is determined by analyzing comprehensively mine safety level. During the comprehensive analysis utilizing method of unascertained measure evaluation, the most important things are the establishment of evaluation element system and balance of various elements. According to comprehensive views of accident theory, this paper sets up multi-level evaluation element system about mine safety and utilizes improved AHP to determine the weight of evaluation element, which makes the weight more scientific and reasonable and better reflects the importance of various elements in mine safety. What’s more, the unascertained measure model of comprehensive safety evaluation in coal mine is established and safety elements are degraded. On the basis of expert credibility, this paper studies MAMB method compounded by uncertainty conclusion. Finally, this paper applies evaluation method of unascertained measure into Shuanglong Mine in Huangling and points out its safety grade. Practical application cases prove that comprehensive evaluation method of unascertained measure is easy to operate and has better effect. Hence, it can be applied widely in the safety evaluation of ordinary industrial enterprises.更多还原