我国货币需求与供给的实证研究

【作者】 管礼平；

【导师】 岳意定；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 货币需求与货币供给的实证研究目的是为了建立稳定的货币需求函数和从定量上探讨货币供给因素变动规律及其内在传导机制的特性。本文建立了我国的货币需求模型，实证考察基础货币和货币乘数的变动规律，分析了财政收支和国际收支对货币供给的冲击，以探讨经济改革过程中和开放经济条件下货币供给所面临的新问题。 在利用协整和误差校正技术估计我国长期和短期货币需求函数的基础上发现我国货币需求的高收入低利率弹性状况还是没有改变。 在对我国基础货币投放渠道进行现实考察的基础上，利用格兰杰因果检验方法得出我国基础货币内生性在趋于减弱，而且联立调控模型揭示法定存贷利率差对基础货币的变动极具影响力。此外我国货币乘数对经济周期性因素影响上具有不一致性，协整分析表明我国货币乘数最受准备存款比例影响。 虽然不管是长期内还是短期内我国财政收支与货币供给的相关性不高，而且还具有时滞现象，但我们并不能忽视财政收支和国债运行对货币量特别是狭义货币量的冲击。在开放经济和盯住汇率制下，我国外汇占款与基础货币呈现出刚性的正相关关系，通过检验我们认为我国央行历年的冲销措施是有效的。 纵观全局，经济体制和金融制度改革对我国的货币机制特性变化可以说是起到了决定性的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 The empirical analysis of money demand and money supply aims to make a stable money demand function, approach money supply factors fluctuating disciplinarian and the speciality of money supply transmission mechanism. After setup the model of money demand of our country ,the paper demonstrates the changing law of basic money and money multiplier, analyses the impact of finance and balance of payments on money supply,whereafter discusses the new problem that money supply is confronted in the process of economy reformation and opening.Based on estimating the long-term and short-term money demand function with the technology of cointegration and error correction, we find that the condition that high elasticity of income and low elasticity of interest rate to money demand in our country has not changed. Based on the practical review of managing channels of basic money, we find that the endogeneity of basic money weakens by using of Granger causality tests. Furthermore, the result of combination equation system indicates that the difference between legal deposit interest rate and legal loan interest rate is the most important to basic money. The influence of economic periodicity factors to narrow definition and broad definition money multiplier differ. In addition the results of cointegration analysis show that reserve-deposit rate affects money multiplier mostly.Although the pertinence is not high between fiscal income and expenditure and money supply in long term or short term, time lag phenomenon exists withal, we shall not ignore the impacts of fiscal income and expenditure and national debt circulation to money quantity especially to narrow definition money. Under the condition of opening economy and stare-ated exchange rate system, foreign currency is distinctly and positively correlative to basic money. By test we think that the off-setting measures of central bank past years are effective.Above all, the reformations of economic and financial system play a crucial role to the monetary mechanism in our country.更多还原