【作者】 贾昕昕；

【导师】 李兴；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 国际关系， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 九十年代以来，随着里海地区地缘政治结构的变化，里海地区显赫的地理位置与沿岸丰富的油气储量引发了对该地区能源勘探开发的热潮。 本文通过分析在“石油心脏地带”和“内需求月形地带”及“外需求月形地块”的油气地缘经济格局中里海地区的重要位置。揭示了国际力量围绕里海油气资源开发和跨国运输通道构成的内外两个三角之间的油气地缘战略竞赛。重点分析了美、俄两大国际力量围绕里海能源主导权在国家战略利益层面、油气输出控制权、里海法律地位、能源投资与合作规模及能源外交的力度等领域展开的激烈的较量与争夺。其次也对地区性力量构成的内三角在资源开采过程中围绕自己的能源利益与地区性地缘目标所进行的谋划展开了分析与总结。 文章通过对国际性力量、地区性力量在参与开发、交叉投资、开展地区合作层面的利益分析以及在油气输出控制权、地区影响力、地缘战略空间拓展层面的分析，勾勒出里海能源开发中诸多力量相互制衡，纵横捭阖，巧妙周旋所形成的动态多极化力量态势；揭示了里海能源开发对该地区国际关系的推动、对欧亚大陆地缘战略格局的重大影响。 鉴于大国战略利益的差异以及地区国家间矛盾的错综复杂，里海地区能源的开发势必将产生深远的经济和政治影响。因此积极参与里海油气管道的建设，争取成为里海能源争夺战中的一极并获取主动地位对中国来说具有深远的战略意义。本文最后为中国在里海能源开发中如何最大程度获取战略利益提供了策略上的选择、建议。 本文的结构安排如下： 引言，首先介绍了里海地区在世界油气地缘格局中的重要地位，分析了掌握里海油气资源对国家经济安全，潜在经济竞争力以及地缘战略制高点所发挥的重要意义，从国际能源格局，大国利益动力机制，地区安全形势的层面凸现了里海油气研究的背景与目的。在此基础上，又概括了里海地区油气开发可能对中国带来的涉及地缘安全、能源利益、地区影响力等的影响。指出了中国参与里海油气开发的重要意义。 第一章主要介绍了里海地区的油气概况。并通过对世界油气地缘战略格局的回顾，具体阐释了里海地区在世界油气地缘版图中的新兴战略地位，为里海地区重要的地缘能源战略价值提供了多层面的分析视角。 第二章简要介绍了围绕里海地区油气开发的主要争夺重点:里海的法律地位及近海主权划分;油气出口管线的走向与分布。展现了众多国际力量以及里海周边五国围绕各自的能源、地缘利益所进行的争锋相对的抢夺。 第三章深入描绘了冷战后环里海地区的地缘战略格局发生的重大调整，通过对国际力量与地区力量在竞相参与里海油气开发的过程中形成的力量相互钳制的内外三角模型分析，在宏观布局上展现了环里海地区的能源开发所形成的竞争格局，清晰的勾勒出该地区的力量争夺态势。 第四章详细展示了美俄作为在里海地区有重大利益与影响力的国际力量在国家战略利益、油气输出控制权、里海法律地位、能源投资与合作规模及能源外交等领域的激烈的较量与争夺。第五章对地区性力量构成的内三角在资源开采过程中围绕自己的能源利益与地区性地缘目标的争夺进行了分析与总结。 第六章对国际竞争态势的特点以及对中国的影响进行了总结，并进一步预测并阐释了里海能源开发对中国在战略层面、安全层面、能源供给层面的深层价值。为中国在里海能源开发中如何最大程度获取战略利益提供了策略上的选择、建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the time of 90’s, the eminent geographical location and considerable oil reserves have brought the great focus on the energy development in the Caspian Sea region with the conversion in the geopolitics structure in the Caspian Sea region.This paper has been focused on the description of the geo-economic pattern of oil and gas which is divided into ’petroleum supplied heart land’ , ’inner demand crescent lands’, ’outer demand crescent lands’ after the Cold War through analysis of the shift of gravity center of world’s oil and gas , in order to stress the special status of Caspian Sea region. Meanwhile, geo-strategic game of oil and gas between the countries of ’inner geopolitical triangles’ and the countries of’outer geopolitical triangles’ based on the scramble for oil and gas in the Caspian Sea region and transnational transportation pipeline has been described. Surrounding the strength of dominating the energy development in the Caspian Sea region, this paper mainly analyzes the drastic disputes and struggles on the aspects of strategic interests, legal status of Caspian Sea, export of gas and oil through the international pipelines, scale of investment and cooperation in energy development, as well as energy politics between two great powers-America and Russia. Secondly this paper also summarizes the energy situation about energy interests and geo-strategic objective among regional forces as the inner geopolitical triangles.By analyzing interests interwoven in the fields of crossing investment, involved exploitation, regional cooperation and the intense struggle in the fields of controlling exports of oil and gas, expanding the regional influence and geo-strategic space, this paper outlines the dynamic multipolar system concerned with the complicated contradiction and perplexing situation which is becoming more and more confused by various forces balancing one another and dealing with one another, displaying the truth that energy development in the Caspian Sea region has been exerting the tremendous influence in altering the international relations in this region and in promoting the geo-strategic pattern in the Eurasian continent.Since major powers concerned have diversified strategic interests and countries in the region have complicated contradiction. The energy development in the Caspian Searegion is expected to exert profound economic and political impacts.Therefore involving the energy pipeline development actively in the Caspian Sea region and striving for becoming an individual polar for the sake of obtaining the advantaged position in the scramble for the energy have far-reaching strategic importance for China .At last, this paper also puts forth some strategic suggestions and choices about how to realize the strategic interests to the largest degree for China in the energy development in the Caspian Sea region.This article is organized as follows.The introduction, first explains the vital position the Caspian Sea region takes in the geo-strategic structure of international oil and gas, then surveys the strategic value that obtaining the energy resource in the Caspian Sea region can imply in national economic security, potential economic competing capacity, the geo-strategic predominance. At last the article stresses the aim and meaning about investigating the energy in the Caspian Sea region in the lay of international energy pattern, benefit and motive mechanism, regional security. Basing on such analysis, the introduction gathers up the possible influences farther that the energy development in the Caspian Sea region will exert in China’s energy benefits, geo-security and regional force and points out the significance the energy development in the Caspian Sea region will bring for China.In chapter one, I give an introduction of general energy situation about the Caspian Sea region. By reviewing the geo-strategic structure of oil and gas, this chapter mainly sets forth the crucial status the Caspian Sea region holds in the geo-strategic territory of oil and gas, providing the m更多还原