【作者】 赵得军；

【导师】 洪林；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 随着人口的增长和经济社会的快速发展，我国水资源状况发生了重大变化。水资源短缺的矛盾已充分暴露出来，缺水范围扩大，程度加剧。在很多地区已经成为严重阻碍经济发展的主要问题，直接影响我国经济社会的可持续发展。为此，本文在广泛阅读国内外有关水资源预测和水资源优化配置的文献、大量分析总结水资源优化配置方法的基础上，以我国水资源较为短缺的河南省开封市为例，对水资源分配中存在的主要问题进行分析，开展了水资源预测、水资源在国民经济各部门及各地区之间优化配置的研究。论文主要包括如下内容： 1．系统分析国内外研究现状、水平、及研究思路和方法，为论文研究奠定理论基础； 2．从深入分析水资源供求趋势出发，以水资源预测理论为基础，对开封市不同水平年各行业需水情况进行了科学的预测，并在此基础上对规划水平年进行了水量供需平衡分析。 3．针对水资源利用及分配中存在的主要问题，以水资源优化配置理论为基础，分析开封市水资源现状配置形式和进行优化配置的必要性，并提出开封市如何进行水资源优化配置的方法和思路。以可供水量作为约束，以多年平均净效益最大作为目标函数，建立效益系数年际变化的水资源优化配置模型，利用遗传算法对效益系数进行优化，利用水资源预测的结果，对不同保证率下的水资源进行优化分配，体现开封市水资源的可持续开发利用的思想和原则。 4．以水资源高效利用为主要目标，对开封市内各地区之间水量优化分配进行了研究。分析开封市4个引黄灌区水资源利用中存在的问题和灌区水资源高效利用的潜力，结合该地区水资源利用发展趋势，提出了开封市实现水资源高效利用的途径和系统措施，并建立了大系统分解协调模型，在四个引黄灌区和灌区内部进行了水资源的优化配置和各灌区内部作物种植结构的优化。 5．对全文研究进行了总结并提出今后的展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid increase of population and the quick development of social economy, the water resources situation in our country has changed tremendously. The conflict of water resources shortage is becoming more and more obvious, and the area of water shortage is expanding, and the degree of water shortage is aggravating. Water shortage has become the most serious problem that hinders economic development in many regions, and directly affects the sustainable development of our social economy. Therefore, it is very important to research on the rational water allocation. On the basis of literature review of the related researches domestic and abroad, and summary of the methods and theories of optimal water resources allocation, the main problems in the allocation of water resources are analyzed with the case study of Kaifeng city, one of the water shortage regions in China. Studies on water resources forecasting, optimal allocation water resources among different sectors and different districts and different areas are also conducted. The main contents of this dissertation are as following:1. Systematic analysis of the research status, levels, theoretical methods of water resources forecasting and optimal water allocation in order to establish the theoretical basis for the study of the dissertation.2. Through analyses of the trends in water resources supply and demand, based on the theories of water resources forecasting, the scientific forecasting models on the water supply and requirement at different levels and different years are established. On this, the water resources demand and supply at different level and different years and the water balances in different levels of planed years are analyzed.3. Aimed at the major problems existing in water use and the significance of water resources optimal allocation in Kaifeng City, the methods and models of water resources allocation are proposed based on the theory of optimal allocation of water resources. In the model, the total available water resources quantity is taken as the constraint, and the maximum multi-year averaged net benefit is taken as the objective, and the yearly changing benefit coefficients are studied by using Genetic Algorithm. Through optimization of the benefit coefficients, and use of the results of waterresources forecasting, the water resources are optimal allocated among different sectors at different level and different years in order to realize water resources sustainable utilization.4.Aimed at the objective of high-efficiency use of water resources, the optimal water resources allocation among different irrigation districts and different crops in Kaifeng city are studied. The problems existing in water resources use and potential of high-efficiency use of water resources in the four Yellow River irrigation districts are analyzed. Through analyses of the trends in water resources use, the measures and the routes of the high-efficiency use of the water resources in Kaifeng city are proposed, and a large scale system decomposition-coordination model which allocate waters among the four Yellow River irrigation districts as well as optimal crop patterns in every irrigation district is established. Water resources optimal allocations among the different irrigation districts and different crops are studied.5. Finally, the water resources optimal allocation results are summarized and the perspective studies in the future are put forward.更多还原