【作者】 张晓昆；

【导师】 赵伟；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 国际贸易， 2003， 硕士

【副题名】对经济危机、经济周期成因及其传导的一种解释

【摘要】 经济危机已成为当代经济社会中一种比较普遍的现象，它的频繁发生对社会产生严重冲击。经济危机在广义上一般被定义为生产能力相对过剩，危机主要表现在供给与需求、生产与消费严重失衡，生产和再生产发生困难、无法进行，经济运行处于混乱和衰退甚至萧条状态。 为了深入分析危机发生的机理，经济学家从不同角度深入考察了经济社会，并提出了不同的解释。对于现代经济危机的另一个方面——经济危机的传递，经济学家们也提供了许多思路。但是，已有的研究不能较好地同时解释危机的发生与传递。 本文从相反的思维入手尝试分析危机的产生——分工的出现与深化必然产生危机。以亚当·斯密、Young，Allyn以及杨小凯的分工思想为基础，试图分析分工在危机中的作用，认为危机的发生过程如下：分工——信息扭曲——资源分配——危机——信息回聚——新分工 文中认为经济社会存在两种结构：商品结构与分工结构，以往的研究基础大多建立在商品结构上，这出现了危机与传递的不同机理。本文把分析建立在分工结构上：分工后，随着信息交换的出现，不同社会部门交换不同数量的信息，部分部门承担了比较多的信息交换；信息交换存在失真与时滞两种特性，因此，在信息的传递中不可避免的发生信息扭曲，每一次信息扭曲都扭曲相应资源的分配，资源的不适度分配出现生产能力相对过剩，体现为危机。 信息扭曲的堆积就像熵一样，有序程度越来越低，这意味着扭曲的信息不会自行消失。要让熵下降或者说让信息回到合理状态，可以通过两种方式：新元素出现与危机。前一种只是暂缓了信息堆积，并没有彻底根除信息扭曲状态。危机却具有自发调节作用：信息回聚。回聚后，信息通道会向有效的途径建立新的链接，产生新的分工。 论文分为五个部分：第一部分，理论综述，主要同顾了早期对经济危机理论分类总结，指出其中存在的问题；第二部分，分工在经济危机中的作用(上)，在这一部分中，主要围绕杨小凯关于经济危机发生的理论展开，指出其中存在的不足并加以修正，从“平面”世界分析危机的发生；第三部分，分工在经济危机中的作用(下)，在上一部分分析的基础上，把平面的分析映射成立体的分析，构建分工金字塔，更详细的阐述危机的发生；第四部分，景气循环与危机的传递，在危机发生的原因上，景气循环与危机的传递都可以成为经济社会的内生现象；第五部分，第一次产业革命，从分工的角度理解产业革命及其带来的必然的危机发生的后果。 文章的创新点：文中的模型同样可以把危机的产生内生化；可以比较好的同时解释危机发生与传递的机理；在景气循环一部分中，还可以比较好的解释四种周期的一致性。 文中主要采用定性分析，附以定量分析，从产业结构的角度对文章的思路进行说明。本文也存在许多缺点：由于作者数学功底有限，难以用严格的数学语言加以证明，但本文通过逻辑的方式对危机的发生作了一个新解释，希望借此提高自身的经济理论修养。更多还原

【Abstract】 Economy crisis is become one of the common events in modern society. It left heavy shock to stable economy society. The general meaning of economy crisis is relative surplus for produce ability. There has much same phenomenon during each crisis, such as supply and demand unbalance, product and custom unbalance, produce and reproduce unbalance, etc. Of course, depression always the result of crisis and include other serious things: unemployment, GDP decrease, even turbulence.Several economists thought about crisis from different points of view in order to find out the mechanism which hidden behind crisis appearance. Another field which followed crisis - crisis transmission- also attract many economists to research on, and they gave out many theories. But former studies can not explain both economic crisis and crisis transmission in one theory.This paper showed an opposite way that deepen and widen of division must caused the crisis. Based on Smith, Allyn and Xiaokai Yang’s division mind, this paper used another method to discuss the effect of division in crisis and outlined a profile of crisis process: division-information distortion - resource distribution distortion-crisis - information re-gather - new division.This paper found that the economy society have another inside structure -division structure not only the merchandise structure which former studies based on. On latter structure, there have many theories to explain crisis and transmission but separate them. When we put research under division structure, we found another scene: after division, different social departments undertake different scale of information, some large and some small. Two characteristics-distortion and hysteresis emerged during information exchange. This caused information distortion in transmission, and each distortion also caused incorrect resource distribution. Finally, crisis broke out.Information distortion just like entropy that when it increase the order is decrease. Fortunately, there have two ways-new elements and crisis-to lighten entropy’s increase. But former instrumentality only lag the distortion time and the latter is the only way to solve the problem thoroughly.This paper have 5 sections: 1st section ingather former theories; 2nd section discuss the crisis causes based on Xiaokai Yang’s theory; 3rd section discuss crisis from social division structure; 4th section discuss the business cycle and crisis transmission; 5th section explain the first industrial revolution from social division structure.The creation of this paper is that the model in this paper can explain crisis causes and crisis transmission either. In the business cycle section, we can illustrate four business cycles in this model also.We use qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis in this paper and the clue is inspection from industrial structure. There have some short-comes that author can not certify the mind in mathematic because of poor math skill. But this paper gave a new explanation in logical mind.更多还原