冯家山水库洪水预报调度系统研究

【作者】 雷波；

【导师】 张宏； 李智录；

【作者基本信息】 南京理工大学 ， 计算机技术， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 实时洪水预报调度，作为一种能有效地减轻洪灾的危害程度和降低洪灾所造成的损失的非工程措施，在近几年来的防洪减灾工作中发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文在冯家山水库实时洪水预报调度决策支持系统的研究开发过程中，对实时洪水预报软件的通用化，实时洪水预报精度的提高，实时洪水调度决策等问题进行了相应的研究工作，并提出了解决方法，为实时洪水预报调度决策提供了较为完善的解决方案。 冯家山水库实时洪水预报调度决策支持系统具有以下特点； 1 较完善地实现了冯家山水库实时洪水预报，能较为有效地对实时洪水预报成果进行校正，并实现了校正程序的通用化。 2 实时洪水调度决策支持子系统能自动地形成实时洪水调度预案，并进行多方案、多目标的优化决策。 3 实现了基于GIS的分布式信息查询功能，更符合人们的使用习惯。 4 集成了实时洪水调度分析决策时所需的各项功能，软件功能较强大。 5 友善的用户界面，使用户易于操作，并便于回溯。 本文第一章简要介绍了洪灾的危害性和治理洪灾的措施，并分析了作为防洪非工程措施的实时洪水预报和实时洪水调度管理的现实意义。 第二章对实时洪水预报调度系统进行了系统需求分析，提出了软件系统的各项需求以及系统的结构。 第三章通过对软件系统开发路线的说明，详细介绍了实时洪水预报调度系统的设计与实现，并对应用软件开发中所使用的有关技术与系统开发平台及洪水调度的相关算法做了介绍。 第四章对系统的开发进行总结，并指出了今后的研究发展方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a non-project measure that can efficiently lessen the scathe of flood disaster and reduce the damager of flood, real-time flood forecasting and dispatching become more and more important in the recently preventing flood and reducing disaster. In the process of exploiting Fengjiashan Reservoir Real-time Flood Forecasting and Dispatching Systems, the problems of general-purpose real-time flood forecasting, improving forecast accuracy, real-time flood dispatching decision, and etc, have been studied and an integrated solution scheme to real-time flood forecasting and dispatching decision is provided. This system has following features:1 The research of Fengjiashan real-time flood forecasting amendment’s method for flow correction and the general-purpose research of amendment software are accomplished. The amendment method can efficiently improve forecast accuracy.2 The Real-time Flood Dispatch Decision Support System can automatically form flood dispatching schemes, and provide multi-scheme and multi-object analysis and decision.3 The system offers scattering information inquiry based on GIS.4 The function of the system is advisable, comprehensive and integrated. It can offer all necessary function for user’s analysis and decision.5 Graphics user interface is very friendly, and very convenient to user’s manipulation and backtracking.In the first chapter, the scathe of flood disaster and the measures of controlling flood are looked back, The importance of developing the Real-time Flood Forecasting and Dispatching Decision Support Systems is analyzed.In the second chapter, the system’s demands are analyzed, the function demand, the information demand and the structure of the system are given out.In the third chapter, design and achievement of Fengjiashan reservoir Real-time Flood Forecasting and Dispatching Decision Support Systems are introduction, including the mathematical models and the algorithms in the main models, and the main technology used in the developing system.In the last chapter, the conclusion and the trend of the future development of real-time flood forecasting and dispatching are given out.更多还原