【作者】 梁冬玲；

【导师】 王立海；

【作者基本信息】 东北林业大学 ， 森林工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 国际工程项目作为集合多个国家的政治、经济、技术、管理、组织各方面的综合性社会活动，它在各个方面都存在着有别于一般工程项目的风险。如何对这样的工程项目中的风险做出科学的评价和决策，是促进我国发展国际工程项目必须要解决的问题之一。 本文首先给出了国际工程项目以及风险的概念和性质，其次对国际工程项目决策的内容和过程做了简要的介绍，并且比较了目前最常用的风险决策方法。然后针对目前风险投资决策模型存在的如计算量大，数据、资料难以收集等问题，对影响国际工程项目投资决策的风险因素进行了系统的分析，建立了国际工程项目风险投资决策与评价模型，通过案例分析，证明模型有效、可行。我国的风险投资研究学者和机构都把大多数的精力致力于项目前期的决策方法的研究，而无论对于任何一个国际工程项目还是普通的工程项目，它的风险并没有因为决策者做出投资决策的同时而停止，而是始终贯穿着项目实施的全过程。并且在这个复杂的过程中，影响项目的风险因素、程度又在发生着变化。基于这样的情况，就需要对工程项目的终止决策作系统科学的研究。针对项目实施过程中风险因素的变化情况和项目实施过程中的终止决策研究的缺乏，根据多元统计分析学中的判别分析的原理，提出了项目的终止决策判断模型，以此作为依据做出项目继续、项目暂缓、项目终止的决策，来最大限度的降低损失。 最后，为了切实的降低风险因素对项目的影响，提出了具体的加强国际工程项目风险控制和应对措施，比如加强对相关行业、相关项目数据、资料的搜集整理工作，以及对项目中的风险进行分配，提前制定应对措施等。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a comprehensive social action, international project is the synthesis of multi-national politics, economy, technique, management and organization. It has different risks with other common engineering projects in all aspects. For the development of China’s international engineering project, how to give scientific risk evaluation and decision-making of such projects is a key problem needs us to solve.In the beginning of this dissertation, the concepts and properties of international project and risk are being put forward. Then the content and procedure of international project are introduced, and the generally used risk evaluating methods are being compared. Following, based on the exiting problems in the current international project investment decision-making models, such as: huge calculations, difficult in collecting data and information, a international project investment decision-making and evaluating model is being bring forward, which is proved to be effective and feasible by practical case analyzing. In China, people and institutes who study risk investment devote most of their energy to the study of decision-making methods in the prophase of a project. However, for an international project or a common project, its risk will not cease by the time the investment decision-making is being made. It will exit through the execution process of the project. In this complex process, the factors and extent, which influence the project, also changed. As to such fact, system and scientific research of project’s terminating decision-making should be carried out. According to the variety of risk factors and the deficient research of terminating decision-making in the execution of a project and the distinguish analyzing principle of multivariate statistical analysis, a project terminating decision-making model is given. Depending on this model, the decision to continue, suspend or terminate the project is made. This model can decrease the loss of risk to the large extent.Finally, for actually lower the influence that risk factors bring to the project, international project risk control and countermeasures are being put forward, including: enforce the data and information colleting and analyzing work in relevant industries and distributing the project risks, taking countermeasures previously etc.更多还原