【作者】 刘化冰；

【导师】 范东明；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 大地测量学与测量工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 滑坡是一种十分严重的自然灾害，它给人类带来的损失极大。对滑坡进行监测分析及预测预报是减灾防灾的重要措施之一。在滑坡稳定性监测分析和预测预报研究中要对庞大的监测数据进行空间范围的处理和分析，由于GIS在海量空间数据存储、管理、分析、计算及成图显示中具有得天独厚的优势，应用GIS技术来对滑坡体监测数据进行分析和处理，并进一步进行滑坡预测是一个有意义的探索方向。 论文基于GIS对滑坡的监测分析及预测预报在以下方面重点进行了研究： 建立滑坡体的数字高程模型(DEM)，基于滑坡体DEM进行了滑动区土石方量的估算方法研究，任意两点间的地质剖面图的绘制，地形断面图的绘制，滑坡坡度以及坡向等空间分析研究。 提出了基于DEM不规则三角形滑坡体土石方量估算方法(Earth Calculation Method by Triangulated Irregular Network，简称ECMTIN)，并对ECMTIN方法进行了算法设计。通过精度对比分析，证实其精度高于截面法和格网法。 设计了利用DEM描述滑坡体地质剖面图的思路：将滑坡体的地质构造属性与数字高程模型进行有机组合形成滑坡地质构造体DEM，通过建立滑坡体地质数据库及程序设计，即可绘制滑坡区内任意两点的地质剖面图。 论文总结分析具有代表性的滑坡预测预报模型的建模机理及其适用原则，如GM(1，1)灰色预测模型、指数平滑法预测模型、非线性回归分析预测模型、移动平均法预测模型、Verhulst预报模型等；并采用一定的方法对多模型预测结果进行处理。 论文在前述内容基础上提出了滑坡监测分析预测系统的总体结构、功能设置以及研发技术路线，并对系统的数据库进行了总体设计。最后利用ArcView软件开发实现了此系统的部分功能，并用工程实例进行了验证。更多还原

【Abstract】 Landslide is a kind of very severe nature disaster, which can result in great loss to human. It is an import method of the disaster reduction and resistance to monitor, measure, analyse and predict the stability of landslide. In which, enormous monitor and measure data of landslide should be analyzed and treated in space scope. Due to GIS holding predominance in the storage, management, analysis, calculation and picture formation and exhibition of mass spatail data, it is a significant search direction to use GIS technique analyzing and treating spatail data of the landslide mass, and further predict the landslide stability.Based on the GIS, the paper profoundly studies the spatail disaster analysis of landslide and prediction of landslide stability.Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the landslide mass being established, based on the DEM of the landslide mass, thespatailanalysis and study is carried out on the method of calculating cubic metre of earth and stone of the landslide, the drawing of geologic profile of the internal structure in the landslide, the drawing of terrain section between two-points on the landslide.The paper advanced Earth Calculation Method by Triangulated Irregular Network and designed an arithmetic of ECMTIN .By comparing accuracy of three methods, which accuracy is higher than the section method and the mesh method.The paper designs the thought route using DEM to drawing geologic profile of the internal structure in the landslide: combine organically the geological formation of landslide mass with the DEM to form landslide digital elevation model, though establishing the geological data base of landslide mass and program design, we can rapidly draw the geological profile of the internal structure in the landslide.The paper generalizes and analyses the modeling mechanics and applicable principle of the representative landslide prediction model such as Gray model prediction, exponential smoothing model, nonlinear regress analysis prediction model, trend prediction,Verhulst model prediction and so on. The processing method of the multiple models prediction results was educed.Based on all of above contents, the framework, function settings and developing way of Landslide Monitoring Datum Analyses and Prediction System are put forward, and the system database is also designed.Finally, the partial functions of this system are performed on the ArcView platform in this thesis. Some examples are tested by the system.更多还原