【作者】 董京；

【导师】 吕和林； 蒋希；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 建筑与土木工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 建设项目投资失控是我国工程项目建设中较为突出的问题，如何提高建设项目实施阶段投资控制的水平，有效提高投资效益是一个很迫切需要解决的问题。针对目前工程项目投资控制存在的问题，本文对施工阶段投资风险因素进行科学的分类，以层次分析法(AHP)对这些风险因素进行识别、排序，并应用灰色系统理论的基本思想建立投资风险关联辩识模型，对影响投资的干扰因素加以识别，确定出影响投资的关键因素。其次分析了工程项目施工阶段投资的动态控制原理、方法及措施。着重分析了主要风险即质量、工期、市场与投资的关系以及其对投资的影响，并利用动态规划法，确定出最优成本对应的最优工期。 以灰色系统方法为基础，建立了投资风险分析系统和投资动态分析系统。投资风险分析系统主要是对影响投资的风险因素进行灰色关联辩识，投资动态分析系统主要是以新陈代谢GM(1，1)基本原理为基础建立投资动态灰色预测模型。通过对未来投资和投资实施状态加以预测，为决策者提供制定和控制下一个时期的投资依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The out of control of the construction project investment is a obvious problem in the project item construction of our country, so it is an urgent problem to be settled that how to improve the level of investment control in the implement period of the construction project and to increase effectively the profit of the investment. In the thesis, against the problem in the present investment control of the project item, factors of investment risk in the implement period are classified and these risk factors are identified and collated through the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Based on the fundamental thoughts of Grey System Method, the correlation identification model was established to identify the disturbed factors influencing investment and to define the critical factors influencing investment. Second, the principle, method and measure of dynamic control in the implement period of the construction project are analysed. The primal risks that the relation between investment and quality, time, market and the influence of which on the investment are analysed emphatically in the thesis, and through the dynamic planning law, the optimum cost corresponding to optimum project period is defined.Based on Grey System Method, the investment risk analysis system and investment dynamic analysis system are established. The main function of investment risk analysis system is the gray correlation identification on the disturbed factors influencing investment and the main function of investment dynamic analysis system is to set up the gray dynamic forecast model based on the fundamental principle of metabolism GM (1,1). Through forecasting the future investment and execution condition of investment, the gist is provided for the decision maker to establish and control the investment of next period.更多还原