【作者】 李春阳；

【导师】 周国华；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 在上世纪五六十年代，随着生产分工的深入、市场竞争的加剧和经济的全球化发展，企业需要一种灵活的、直接面向客户和结果的方式来组织资源，项目管理应运而生。为了达到项目管理目标，进行符合实际和规律的计划和控制是有益的和必要的。 进度管理的网络计划技术方法不仅能完整揭示一个项目所包含的全部工作以及他们之间的关系，而且还能应用最优化技术合理安排各项工作。但CPM(Critical Path Method)进行工序历时估计的单一性使之不容易得到反映实际情况的值；而PERT(Program Evaluation and Review Technique)模型为了简化计算而进行的一系列假设导致得出的平均项目时间几乎总是小于实际统计平均值，方差值却往往大于实际方差值。本文使用的模糊网络计划是通过用模糊数表示工序历时，从而更好的反映了人们在进行历时估计时的思维特点，不但可以实现对最关键线路的关注，也有利于形成对其他线路进行动态监测，以更好的适应不断变化的项目环境和工程实施条件。 为了进行有效的项目进度管理，必须使计划的执行过程处于良好的控制之下。由于模糊系统可以作为任何非线性系统的万能逼近器，所以本文假定模糊控制可以应用到项目进度管理系统中。本文即对模糊控制系统在项目进度管理中的应用进行了比较详尽的分析，选择了符合项目实施特点的算法结构，最终实现了基于模糊技术的工程项目进度管理系统。更多还原

【Abstract】 From the 50-60’s in 20th century, with the development of specialization, aggravation of competition and the globalization of economy, enterprise begins a way of organizing resource that is flexible and faced directly to customers and results which is called project management. To meet the goal, it is necessary and profitable to make feasible plans and execute effective controls.The network planning methods in the time fields of project management can articulate not only all the activities and relations of a project completely, but the critical activities through mathematical methods and optimization techniques. Nevertheless, the simplicity of activity duration estimating in the CPM(Critical Path Method) can hardly engender actual value. While PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) always gets smaller project duration with larger variation because of a series of hypothesizes which intended to make calculation easier. In this thesis we use fuzzy network planning technique to schedule the large projects. That the duration is defined with fuzzy number in fuzzy network make it better to reflect people’s thinking characters when making duration estimating. Using this method we can monitor the other paths while monitoring the critical path and get a better adoption to the project circumstance.Performing the plan is much more important than plan itself. This thesis makes the hypothesis that fuzzy control can also be applied to project scheduling management on the basis of fuzzy system being any nonlinear system’s omnipotent simulator. This thesis makes a detailed analysis of fuzzy control in apply of project time management, and chooses the appropriate algorithm structure which fits the character of project performing so as to realize the fuzzy engineering project time management system at last.更多还原