城市生活垃圾焚烧处理项目的技术经济分析与评价

【作者】 马媛媛；

【导师】 王华；

【作者基本信息】 昆明理工大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 技术经济评价是对拟建项目技术上、经济上及其他方面的可行性进行论证，其目的是为了给投资决策者提供决策依据，同时为银行贷款、合作者签约、工程设计等提供依据和基础资料。对于一个好的项目而言，除具备技术上的先进性外，其经济合理性及所能带来的社会效益也是项目决策的一个重要依据。 评价一个具体项目技术经济效果要进行确定性和不确定性分析。确定性分析采用静态和动态的经济指标来衡量项目可行与否，其中，静态经济评价指标主要用于技术经济数据不完备和不精确的项目初选阶段，动态评价指标则用于项目最后决策前的可行性研究阶段。在确定性分析中，由于项目的复杂性，任何一种具体的评价指标都只能反映项目的某一侧面或某些侧面，故应多个指标结合起来对项目进行尽可能全面的经济评价。常用的经济指标有投资收益率、投资回收期、净现值和内部收益率等。不确定性分析方法主要有盈亏平衡点法、敏感性分析法及概率分析法等。 当前世界各国都面临垃圾泛滥成灾的现实，各国的视线已经不再停留在如何控制和销毁垃圾的问题上，而是采取积极的态度和有力的措施进行科学的处理，利用垃圾，将垃圾列为“第二资源”。我国的垃圾产量惊人，但垃圾焚烧发电产业处于起步阶段，面临的问题既有宏观上的，也有微观上的，技术上、经济上都值得进一步探索和研究。鉴于垃圾焚烧发电对于节约资源，改善环境，实现国家的可持续发展具有重要意义，对垃圾焚烧发电产业进行客观、全面、深入的技术经济评价非常必要。 垃圾焚烧发电项目的技术经济评价与一般项目评价相比，评价程序基本相同，但又有其特殊性。例如，项目的融投资；项目的收益来源(一般而言，垃圾焚烧发电厂属于微利型企业)；项目更加注重社会效益和环保效益；此外，受宏观影响很大，国家的税收政策、产业政策及行业标准等都对项目有不同程度的影响。 本文对建设规模为600 t／d的中等规模的垃圾焚烧发电厂进行技术经济评价。经过确定性及不确定性经济分析，项目的各项指标都在可行范围内。 这类项目投产后只能确保微利收益，投资回报年限较长，但非常稳定，风险小。企业投资这类项目不属于风险投资，一般认为是一种战略投资。更多还原

【Abstract】 Techno-economic appraisal is a feasible analysis process in technical and economic evaluation, which purpose is helpful to managers’ decision-making. At the same time, it can provide basic information for offering loans, endorsing among copartner and designing of project. A perfect project must be provided with not only advancing technology, rational income but also social benefit. Appraising a project includes definite and indefinite appraisal analysis. The former judges whether a project is feasible or not by static and dynamic indexes. Static indexes are available in the earlier phrases, which techno-economic data are imperfect and inaccurate. Dynamic indexes are often used in final decision of feasibility investigation. Any appraisal index only shows one or more aspects, which is not enough. In practice, several indexes are combined aiming to evaluate thoroughly as possible as we can. Some important indexes are listed here, such as ratio of benefit/cost ratio, Payback period, Net present value and Internal rate of return. Break-even point, sensitive analysis and probability are used in indefinite evaluation.It is obvious that municipal solid wastes(MSW) are overrun all over the world. The urgent measure is not how to control and annihilate these wastes but effective disposal by positive measures. Municipal solid wastes are definited as the secondary resource. The increase of garbage is surprising in our country. However the domestic industry of waste disposal is in underway. There are many issues in both macroscopical and microcosmic aspects. It is worth carrying out further research. On account of significance of waste disposal, such as economizing energy, improving environment, it is necessary to evaluate the industry of MSW disposal.The evaluation in MSW incineration disposal industry is the same as a normal project, but there are specialities of its own. For example, it is deferent in financing, investment and sources of benefits from others. Additionally, the industry pays more attention to social and environmental benefits.In this paper, a moderate scale plant of MSW incineration disposal is appraised. , Ordinarily disposal scale of 600t/d can be taken for moderate scale. Based ondefinite and indefinite analysis, all of the economic indexes are in feasible scope.Generally speaking, the incomes of this kind of project are frictional, and payback period is much longer. It is acknowledged that steady-going and less risk are the advantages. We can regard this kind of investment as strategic investment, but not as risky ones.更多还原