兰州市交通决策支持系统

【作者】 曹爱请；

【导师】 曹洁；

【作者基本信息】 兰州理工大学 ， 控制理论与控制工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 兰州市作为中国西北部地区的重要城市，近年来，经济增长迅速，原有的交通体系已不堪重负。改善城市交通基础设施和提高城市交通服务水平、促进城市交通良性发展，尽快建立兰州市交通决策支持系统是一项非常重要的工程。交通决策支持系统通过信息加工与管理、仿真试验分析、多样化的输出信息表达等方式，为交通规划工作提供必要的技术支持，是进行相关分析与决策所不可缺少的工具。同时交通规划决策支持系统所支持的分析模型与规划对象的特点具有密切联系，与管理体制约定的规划工作程序密切相关。因此需要根据兰州市交通规划的特点，开发合适的交通规划决策支持系统，这也是交通规划领域的一项重要课题。 本文结合兰州市的具体交通情况和目前现有的决策支持技术以及交通模型的各种实现方法确定了兰州市交通决策支持系统的总体方案，其中主要进行了以下几方面工作： 首先根据兰州市1999、2000年进行的兰州市五项交通调查，即居民出行调查、公交客流调查、路段流量调查、出入境车辆调查及路网基础数据调查建立了基础数据管理系统，实现了对兰州市公共交通相关信息的存储、查询、提取和维护，并且能够从多种渠道的各类信息资源中析取数据，转化成决策支持系统要求的各种数据。 在基础数据库的基础上建立了兰州市交通规划“四阶段模型”。利用类比分析法对兰州市各个交通小区未来可能的交通产生吸引量进行预测，建立了居民出行吸引模型；利用重力模型对兰州市各交通区之间及各交通区内部的居民出行量进行预测建立了居民出行分布模型；利用分对数计算法对兰州市各交通区之间及各交通区内部各种交通方式所分担的居民出行量进行预测建立了居民出行方式模型：利用最短路算法对交通流量进行分配。 最后结合Visual Basic等语言建立了兰州市交通预测模型库系统。在系统设计中，模型库采用模块化设计，根据交通规划模型预测内容的不同划分为若干个子模块实现，各个模块划分清晰，相互独立。更多还原

【Abstract】 Lanzhou is the importent industrial center in the Northwest. With the development of urban society and economy, traffic problem is becoming more serious. Under such situation, it need establish a developing strategy for city communications and transportation. During the course of urban transportation planning, analysis results are produced using kinds of methods based on a great deal of data, which brings a great deal of complex data. It is important to manager and dispose these data by manpower. Decision support system on transportation planning provide necessary technical support for transportation planning, and it is indispensable tool of correlation analysis and decision, through the manner of information processing and managing, simulation analysis. Because analysis model supported by decision support system on transportation planning is related to the characteristic of the planned object, and related to the practical conditions. Foreign software are not adapted to our country’s condition. So we need develop adaptable decision support system on transportation planning according to the situation of our country and the characteristic of Lanzhou.This thesis put forward the unitary project on the decision support system on transportation planning of Lanzhou based on the current transportation conditions and the method of transportation planning. Jobs in this paper are showed as flowing:Firstly according to the transportation survey in Lanzhou in 1999 and in 2000,including person trip survey, number of passengers alighting/boarding survey, loadway flow survey, exit flow survey, and so on, based databank managing system is established, which can save, inquire and maintain interrelated information and extract data from kinds of informational resource by any means.And then, four-phase model is established. We predict the future traffic attraction of each transportation zones and establish traffic attraction forecasting model by analogizing and analyzing, predict the future trips times between two transportation zones and establish transportation distribution forecasting model by gravity model, predict the future trips times between two transportation zones in different traffic ways and establish transportation ways forecasting model, and distribute the traffic flow by the shortest route arithmetic.Finally, the model base on the decision support system on transportation planning of Lanzhou is established in Visual Basic language.更多还原