【作者】 王丽杰；

【导师】 朱玉仙；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 应用数学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 水资源管理中的综合评价技术是研究水资源与社会、与经济、环境协调关系的重要手段，是实现水资源可持续开发利用战略目标的有力工具。国内外学者对综合评价技术的研究十分重视，并进行了许多有益的探讨。本文通过对水资源可持续利用数学模型的开发和应用，使水资源评价技术有了飞速的发展。在综合评价中，应用数学模型进行系统的分析研究，将这些模型归结为三大类：即规划论模型；投入产出模型；统计指数模型。根据研究侧重点不同而使用的方法也有所不同。如果研究的侧重点是锁定一个或几个主要目标，其他条件则处在次要地位，这时可采用规划论模型，对规划论模型本文主要讨论了在应用中如何根据实际评价问题选取目标函数和确定约束条件；对于投入产出模型，本文给出了以水资源作为投入项的水资源实物—价值混合型投入产出模型，整个模型包括两部分，即投入产出表和经济效益系数的计算公式。本文的重点是构建统计指数模型。统计指数模型是利用经济统计的思想，建立起一套水资源可持续开发利用评价指标体系，我们构造的指标体系主要包括三部分内容：总量指标、比例相对指标和强度相对指标。总量指标用来表征地区在某个时段内水资源、人口、经济总的规模或总的水平，包括四个指标变量：可利用水资源总量、可供水总量、人口总量以及国内生产总值；比例相对指标，用来表征地区水资源环境质量和水资源复用比率以及分质用水的程度，包括两个指标变量：水质达标率和水资源复用率实际水平；强度相对指标，用以表征科学用水的水平、水资源利用效率以及水资源利用的经济效益，包括五个基本指标变量： 人均生活用水、第一产业耗水系数、第二产业耗水系数、第三产业耗水系数和城市亩均环境用水量。我们还引入了一些必要的中间变量，主要包括：可利用水资源总量、可供水总量、人均生活用水、国内生产总值、各产业耗水系数以及各产业中水资源经济效益系数等。在指标体系基础上，将指标体系中的每一个指标视为一个变量构建了协调系数和可持续系数，这两个指数是用［0，1］上的一个具体的数指定量地刻<WP=34>划水资源、环境、社会、经济的协调发展状况及可持续状况。本文建立的统计指数评价方法具有重要的实际应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The synthetical evaluation technique of Water Resource management is an important means to study the harmonious relation between Water Resource, Society, Economy and Environment, and also is a powerful tool to fulfill the strategic target of Water Resource sustainable developing and using. Many technique, and made many useful discussion.This thesis made the evaluation technique developing rapidly on the water resources through the development and exploitation of mathematics model. we apply the mathematics models to analyse and study systematically. we induce these models to three types: the programming theory model; the input and output model ;the covariance index number model.According to the different particularly emphasis in research, there are also many different methods to use: If the research emphasis on an target or a few main targets,in order to realize the main targets, the other targets then are placed in the unimportant position, we can adopt the programming theory model, while adopting the programming theory model this thesis mainly discussed how to select the target function and the stipulation terms on application according to the actual evaluation problem; For the input and output model, this text conduct the object — value mixture’s input and output mode of water resources ,the whole model includes two parts, the form of input and output and the calculation formulas of economic performance coefficients.The point in the thesis is to set up the covariance index number model. The covariance index number model established an index system of Water Resource sustainable using based on the ideology of economical statistics. The index system consists of three sections: gross index, proportion comparative index and intension proportion index. During <WP=36>the procedure of evaluation, we also have import some essential inter-variables. Such as available gross amount of water resource, the total amount of water resource can be supplied, the average per capita water amount for living, GDP , the water-consuming coefficients of every industry and economical benefit coefficients of every industry, etc.We see each index as a change item of index system and set up the coordination coefficient and the sustainable development coefficient, the two index coefficients deal quantitative the water resources, environment, society, economic coordination development condition and sustainable condition through using a specific number way from zero to one.The covariance index numbers evaluation method established in this thesis has the important application value actually.更多还原