【作者】 麻素挺；

【导师】 汤洁；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 环境工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 水是生命之源，是人类赖以生存和发展不可缺少的一种宝贵资源，是可持续发展的基础条件，并且也是自然生态环境重要的制约因素。位于半干旱半湿润大陆季风气候的吉林西部地区，要维护和改善生态环境在很大程度上受制于水资源的供给状况。但是，目前该区水资源开发利用过程中还存在诸多问题。随着西部地区生态环境建设的开展，生态环境需水量问题将越来越突出，水资源承载力问题也越来越受关注。研究该区的生态环境需水量及水资源承载力，对于实现水资源在区域间、部门间的合理配置和可持续发展利用具有十分重要的意义。 作者在攻读硕士期间，有幸参加了导师汤洁教授主持的水利部基金项目和国家自然科学基金项目，并在此基础上撰写完成论文。下面分5部份介绍论文的主要内容。（一）详细分析了吉林西部水资源开发利用过程中存在的问题。主要存在的问题有：当地水资源比较匮乏，水资源总量不足；水资源开利用结构不合理；局部地下水开采布局不合理，区域水位下降，单井出水量减小，形成地下水位下降漏斗；水资源利用效率低，浪费比较严重；污水不合理的排放，造成水资源不同程度的污染；生态环境用水被大量挤占，湿地、草地等用水得不到保障，地表水体的面积也在逐渐减小。（二）采用增长预测法对吉林西部工农业及城乡生活需水进行了预测。在生活需水预测中，首先采用直接推算法对总人口、城镇化率和牲畜数进行了预测，从而得到各水平年的城乡人口数和牲畜数，再利用不同水平年的需水定额对该区的生活需水进行计算，得到2010年和2020年的生活需水分别为2.837亿m3和3.716亿m3；工业需水采用万元产值用水量法进行预测，用该区经济发展规划来确定工业产值年增长率，由此可以得到各规划年的工业产值，根据不同水平年的万元产值用水量预测2010年和2020年的工业需水量，其值分别为1.837亿m3和3.466亿m3；农田灌溉需水是根据农田发展规划和灌溉定额来确定的，预计2010年和2020年的农田灌溉需水量分别为28.904亿m3和33.94亿m3。此外，还对吉林西部2010年和2020年的可供水量做了预测，供水量分<WP=95>别为29.59亿m3和35.83亿m3。在计算需水量和供水量的基础上，对供需平衡做了比较分析，得出2010年缺水量为4.02亿m3，2020缺水量增加到5.29亿m3，水资源供给量存在不足，供需矛盾日益突出。通过对吉林西部工农业生产及城乡生活供需水量的预测和平衡分析，掌握了该区各规划年的水资源供需状况，为水资源的科学管理和合理规划提供了重要的参考依据。（三）探讨了生态环境需水量的概念，总结了国内外生态环境需水量的计算方法。根据吉林西部的水文、气象条件和植被分布特点，将该区分为6种生态环境需水量，利用TM影像解译数据统计出相应的面积，在此基础上，分别求出了农田、林地、草地、河道、河流输沙、湖泊洼地和沼泽湿地生态环境需水量。最后将该区生态环境需水总量与水资源量和出境水资源量进行平衡分析。研究结果表明，无论在枯水年份还是在正常降水年份，水资源量无法都满足生态环境需水，但过境水资源潜力巨大，因而必须采取充分利用过境地表水措施，才能使该区有限的水资源得以持续利用。生态环境需水量的研究为该区科学规划、合理利用水资源，修复改善生态环境提供了重要的科学依据。（四）利用主成分分析法对西部地区各县市的水资源承载力进行了研究，发现吉林西部各县市的水资源承载力不容乐观。水资源承载力较大的地区有洮北区和前郭县，由于两地的水资源条件和水资源管理及技术设施较好，水资源综合效益较高的缘故。水资源承载力较差的地区却有6个之多，这些地区的水资源条件较差，水资源利用效率不高，水资源管理水平较低，所以本区应加大水利设施建设，发展节水农业提高水资源的综合效益。属于水资源承载力中等的地区有洮南市和大安市，这两区的水资源条件相对较好，但工业用水效率较低，水资源开采程度较高，水资源综合效益一般。这说明水资源利用不合理，存在水资源浪费问题，如不加以调整，水资源承载力势必下降.所以应大力发展生态环保效益型经济，提高水资源的可承载能力。（五）建立了水资源、经济、人口、环境、社会相联系的水资源承载力多目标核心模型.以可供水量、用水水平和BOD排放总量为模型入口，研究不同水平年、不同策略方案下的水资源所能承载的经济、人口<WP=96>规模。通过方案比较，选择高方案作为吉林西部地区可持续发展的优选方案。高方案是在当地开源节流的基础上，加强了对过境水的开发利用，可供水量大大增加，缺水量逐渐降低，水资源承载力主要指标与期望值接近。此方案不仅可以满足西部地区产业结构调整和西部地区经济发展的要求，同时还能很好的改善西部的生态环境。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water is the source of life, one kind of valuable resources indispensable for human’s surviving and developing, a basic factor for sustainable development, and an important factor for restriction of natural eco-environment. For the western Jilin area with a semi-arid and semi-humid mainland monsoon climate, maintaining and enhancing eco-environment is restricted to a large extent by water supply. There are, however, a great many problems existing in process of exploiting water resource in the area. Problems on eco-environmental water requirement are becoming more and more prominent, with the beginning of establishing eco-environment in the western area, and accordingly, there is an increasing attention paid to problems on carrying capacity of water resource. For realizing reasonable distributing and sustainable use of water resource between regions or departments, it is important to research on eco-environmental water requirement and carrying capacity of water resource in the area.Fortunately, the author joined fund project of hydraulic ministry and natural science fund project presided over by professor Tang, and finished the thesis based on it while in master period. Thereinafter the thesis is introduced within five parts.(1) The thesis analyses detailedly problems existing in exploiting process of water resource in the western Jilin province. Primary problems include: water resource and its total quantity is scarce in local area; configuration of exploiting water resource is unreasonable; exploitation composition of part ground water is irrational, regional water lever dropping and output of single well decreasing, and ground water descendent funnels occur; low efficiency of water resource utilization and severe waste; unreasonable waste water drainage cause pollution of water resource at different degree; water consumption of eco-environment is embezzled greatly and of <WP=98>marshland and grassland is not ensured, and area of surface water is diminishing gradually.(2) The thesis anticipates industry, agriculture and living water requirement in the western Jilin province with the method of increase forecasting. In anticipating living water requirement, direct calculating method is used to anticipating total population, urbanization rate and livestock quantity firstly, hence the urban population and livestock quantity of level year, and thereafter, water requirement ration of different level year is used to count living water requirement of this area, living water requirement 0.2837 billion m3and 0.3716 billion m3 in 2010 and 2020 respectively; the method of water consumption per ten thousand production value is used anticipating industry water requirement, annual increasing rate of industrial production value determined by local economy-development program and hence production value of every program year, industry water requirement in 2010 and 2020 anticipated with method mentioned above and the result 0.1837 billion m3 and 0.3466 billion m3 respectively; water requirement of farmland irrigation is estimated by program of farmland development and irrigation ration, the outcome 2.8904 billion m3 and 3.394 billion m3 in 2010 and 2020 respectively. Furthermore, possible water supply is anticipated in 2010 and 2020 in the western Jilin province, the result 2.959 billion m3 and 3.583 billion m3 respectively. The thesis compares and analyzes supplying-consuming balance on the base of mathematical outcome gotten from above, obtaining result that the water shortage is 0.402 billion m3 in 2010 and 0.529 billion m3 in 2020. Water resource supply is insufficient so supplying-consuming conflict becomes increasingly prominent. By means of anticipation and balance analysis, the thesis seizes supplying-consuming condition of water resource in every program year in the area and provides important reference for scientific management and reasonable program of water resource.(3) The thesis discusses concept of eco-environment water requirement <WP=99>and summarizes count method of it both in and out the country. Acco更多还原