【作者】 李霞；

【导师】 赵淑芝；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 居民出行生成预测是研究在一定的社会经济发展水平、土地利用特征以及道路交通网络服务水平下城市各交通小区可能产生的总出行需求，它是城市交通规划的基础和需求预测的首要步骤，其精度直接关系到城市道路交通建设规划的合理程度和科学水平，乃至于整个城市未来的经济发展和人民生活水平的改善。目前的出行生成预测技术没有能够综合的考虑各种出行生成的影响因素。因此，有必要深入研究出行生成预测技术。在出行生成模型中，无论是回归分析还是发生率法或类别生成法都很少能体现出行生成与地区区位和可达性之间的相关关系。论文主要研究城市居民出行生成量的预测，包括出行发生量和出行吸引量。首先，分析城市居民出行的特征以及影响因素，建立基于城市居民出行基本特征及影响因素的相互作用关系的预测模型。本文主要考虑建立土地利用与居民出行生成的相关关系模型，研究土地利用与交通相互作用的关系以及居民出行影响因素中的土地利用与居民出行的关系，在试图体现出行生成与地区区位、可达性之间的相关关系的基础上，建立城市居民出行发生预测模型。论文基于以上思路，在研究的过程中分五章对城市居民出行生成预测方法及模型进行了阐述。第一章，简要地介绍了研究的目的和意义、国内外的研究状况，在此基础上明确了论文所要采用的研究思路和方法。第二章，首先阐述了居民出行特征，对影响城市居民出行的主要影响因素进行分析，介绍了传统的城市居民出行发生、吸引预测方法与模型。为下面将要进行的城市居民出行生成预测模型中变量的选取提供了理论依据。第三章，简要介绍常用的城市居民出行生成预测模型，以及各种模型的使用前提，对比其优缺点，综合比较各种出行生成预测模型，考虑交通小区的可达性，加入变量＝并与交通小区的社会经济变量共同组合成出行生成预测模型 <WP=74> 并对其用实例进行验证。等维灰数递补GM（1，1）模型的应用在第四章人口预测部分。第四章是城市土地利用与居民出行生成相关模型的建立，也是论文的核心部分。详细地阐述了城市土地利用与居民出行生成的关系。因为不同的土地使用性质的交通小区，出行活动有较大的差异。在建立模型的过程中试图将不同的土地利用类型对居民出行生成的影响体现出来。计算各交通分区土地利用混合率，人口数以及确定居民平均出行次数，根据推导得到城市土地利用与交通生成的关系式首先对此模型进行验证，然后再引用现阶段国内常用的与土地利用紧密联系的出行吸引预测的公式，计算目标年长春市各行政区的居民出行发生、吸引量。 第五章是结论与展望，概括了本论文的主要研究结论以及有待进一步研究的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The definition of city residents trip production forecasting is to estimate general travel demand that traffic zones will probably produce under some certain conditions such as the socio-economic developing level, characteristics of land use and traffic network serving level. As the basis of transportation planning and primary process in travel demand forecasting, the precision of forecasting would directly impact on rationality and science level about transportation highway constructing planning, even on economic development and improvement of people’s living level in the future. At current, trip generation forecasting does not completely considerate all factors which influence trip production. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out further studies on trip generation forecasting.Neither regression analysis nor cross-classification analysis thoroughly demonstrates the relevant relationship between trip generation and accessibility to traffic zones. This thesis mainly studies on city resident trip production including trip generation and trip attraction. To begin with, the characteristics and influence factors of city resident trips are analyzed. On the basis of correlation between them, the model is established to forecast trip generation. Furthermore, after studying interactional relationship between land use and transportation and considering interactive relation between land use which is one of trips influence factors and city resident trips, it also attempts to establish forecasting models that show close relation between trip generation and the accessibility to zones. Based on the above content, the forecasting methods and models are explicitly expounded with five chapters in the process of study. The main idea in every chapter is listed as followed.Chapter one introduces the purpose and meaning about this study, current situations in domestic and overseas. On this basis, study thoughts and forecasting methods are explicit.In chapter two, characteristics of travel are expatiated. It also analyzes the main factors, which influence trips of city residents, introduces traditional methods <WP=76>and models to forecast trip generation and trip attraction. This supplies basic theory for the following study on variable selecting. Chapter three introduces forecasting models and the premise to use them. Thoroughly comparing the advantages and disadvantages of forecasting models, the accessibility is taken into account, adding variable ＝to socio-economic variables in traffic zones and then produces trip generation forecasting model This model is validated. It also simply introduces Gray Model that is prepared for next population forecast.In chapter four, the core of this thesis, forecasting models is built after setting forth interactional relationship between land use and trips of city residents. Since different land use in every zone existing diversity of trip generation, this differentiate is embodied in the process of establishing model. According to the process of deducing, the formula, which embodies interactional relationship between land use and transportation, is gained. Furthermore, this model is validated, and then trip attraction forecasting model used extensively in domestic at present is chosen which is closely related to land <WP=77>use. Thus, trip generation and trip attraction can be computed respectively.Chapter five summarizes study content, conclusion and some problems that need to study further.更多还原