【作者】 沈诗杰；

【导师】 景跃军；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 人口学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 本文主要研究吉林省劳动力就业与失业的问题，介绍了劳动力就业的几个经典理论，从这些劳动力就业理论出发，探讨了研究劳动力就业的现实意义，并对2050年吉林省劳动力供给进行了预测。研究结果表明：目前吉林省劳动力就业现状存在诸多问题，并亟待解决。一、劳动力就业的典型理论本文讨论了劳动力就业理论的两个代表人物——萨伊和凯恩斯，对他们的理论进行了详细的介绍，并作了比较，认为两种就业理论存在区别的根本原因在于：萨伊的理论代表了资本主义在上升时期的普遍的就业观点。但是由于其理论基础是建立在萨伊定律之上，所以其理论难以适应目前的实际情况。萨伊定律认为供给自创需求，企业无论生产多少商品都能销售出去，因为企业家必定把对劳动力的边际需求定义在劳动的边际生产率上，因此，就业永远是充分的。萨伊的充分就业理论是错误的，原因在于他混淆了商品交换与物物交换的区别。而凯恩斯是继承了以往的研究成果，提出了非自愿性失业理论。他认为存在失业是常态，充分就业只是刀刃上的一点。他建立在有效需求不足理论上的就业观点无疑比萨伊更有说服力。在通过对两种就业理论的比较分析之后，我们进一步论证了劳动力就业与失业研究的重要意义：第一，就业与失业是衡量国民经济运行的重要指标。第二，就业与失业状况与国民的物质和精神生活具有密切联系。二、吉林省劳动力资源的数量及构成变化根据第一次至第五次人口普查数据，我们计算了吉林省劳动力资源及总人口的年增长率，并对吉林省劳动力资源构成的变化进行了分析。<WP=38>通过计算得出的数据，我们发现吉林省在业人口性别比偏高的现象已发生转变。在业人口的产业结构出现了第一产业在业人口比重上升，第二产业在业人口比重下降的反常现象。同时，我们对失业人口的数量及构成也作了数据分析。结果表明，吉林省失业率的地区差异很大，且所有城市的女性失业率都是大于男性失业率。三、吉林省劳动力就业与失业现状以及存在的问题吉林省人口增长较快，劳动力资源十分丰富。但同时，也有大量的失业人口存在。主要体现在：一是一般意义上的失业总量，包括因各种原因失去工作的城镇劳动力和无法获得就业机会的城镇新成长劳动力；二是在经济体制改革特别是企业改革中发生的一种特殊形式的失业即国有企业、城市集体企业及其它经济部门的“下岗”职工。同时，经过研究发现，出现这种现象的原因主要有以下几个：一是劳动力年龄人口增长快；二是产业结构不合理；三是总量失业与结构性失业并存；四是隐性失业显性化；五是社会对失业问题承受力低，社会保障制度不健全。 四、2050年吉林省劳动力供给的预测我们从人口学的角度，预测了2050年吉林省的劳动力供给状况。首先，我们根据“五普”数据计算得出吉林省出生人口性别比、总和生育率及预期寿命。然后运用People软件及科学的预测方法对2050年吉林省劳动年龄人口数进行了预测。预测结果显示，2050年吉林省15~64岁人口数为1232.56万人。根据1990年以后的数据计算，吉林省劳动力占劳动年龄人口的比例基本稳定在72.5%左右。按这个比例，2050年吉林省劳动力供给将达到924.42万人。并且吉林省人口将在2015年达到峰值，2015年以后人口将呈现负增长态势。五、关于吉林省劳动力就业的几点对策通过对吉林省劳动力就业存在的问题进行研究，以及借鉴发达国家<WP=39>和我国其它省市的经验，我们认为吉林省要妥善处理好劳动力就业问题必须做好以下几点工作：第一，控制人口过快增长。这不仅要正面教育引导，还要建立健全农村养老保险制度以及积极推进农村政治、经济、文化的全面发展；第二，调整产业结构，增加就业岗位。这就要求我们大力发展第三产业，利用第三产业内部行业较多，劳动密集与技术、智力密集型行业并存的特点，吸收各种层次、不同素质的劳动力就业；第三，解决农村就业问题。其根本途径是全面发展农村经济，从吸纳和转移两个方面下功夫，发展高产、优质、高效农业，加强农业社会化服务体系，实现传统农业向现代化农业的转变；第四，重视教育与职业培训，提高劳动者素质。首先，要推行教育改革，发展教育事业；其次，要重视职业培训。另外，还应加紧建立以劳动市场需求为导向的多层次、多渠道、多功能的职业培训体系，积极开发劳动者的职业技能，拓宽职业选择余地。只有这样才能提高失业者就业或再就业的竞争力和对新岗位的适应能力，从而最终缓解劳动力供给与经济发展所需人才结构不相适应的矛盾，缩短失业者的待业时间，减少结构性失业人口。更多还原

【Abstract】 The article studied on employment and unemployment in Jilin Province and introduced several classical theories of employment. Based on these theories, it also discussed the realistic meaning of study of employment， and predicted the labor supply of Jilin Province in 2050. The result of research showed that there are a great deal of problems in the present situation of the employment of Jilin Province which demand prompt solution. I.Classical theories of employmentThis article introduced two representative figures in this field--Iraq Sa and Keynes, discussed their theories and made comparisons with each other. In the author’s opinion, the difference of these two employment theories is that the theory of Iraq Sa represented general view of employment in the period when capitalism was rising. But because his theory was based on Sa Iraq law, it hasn’t too much persuasion now. Sa Iraq law concluded that supply produced demand by itself and the enterprise could sell out all its own products because the entrepreneur certainly would define the marginal demand of the labor on the marginal productivity. Therefore full employment was sure. The error of the theory of full employment lied in confusing the exchange of commodities with the exchange of barter. Keynes inherited the past research and created the innovative theory of involuntary unemployment. Upon his view, it was normal for there to be unemployment, while full employment is only on the blade. Undoubtedly his employment theory built on insufficient valid demand was more perusable than Sa Iraq’s theory. By analyzing the two classical theories of employment, this paper further demonstrated the significance of research on employment and unemployment: First, it is the important index that weighs national economical operation; second, the status of employment and unemployment has close ties with our matter and moral life.II.The quantity and structure of labor resource in Jilin Province According to the data retrieved from the first to the fifth census, we can draw out the annual growth rate of labor resource and of total population, analyze the change of the structure of labor resource in Jilin Province, and find out that the high business population sex ratio of Jilin Province has <WP=41>already changed. In the industrial structure of employment the business population proportion of the first industry appeared to rise, and its counterpart in the secondary industry drops. We also made data analysis of the quantity and structure of employment and unemployment. The result of it indicated that unemployment rate of different areas differed widely in localities in Jilin Province, and the female unemployment rate is larger than that male in the cities.III. The current situation of employment and unemployment and its existing problemsJilin Province has much population and abundant labor resource, but also has a large amount of unemployment which was mainly embodies in the following aspects included. First, the total amount of unemployment in the general meaning, which includes the urban labor who lost jobs because of some reasons and the new labor who can not find jobs; Second, the " laid-off workers " which is a special kind of the unemployment taking place during the period of economic system reform such as the state-owned enterprise, urban collective-owned enterprise and other economic departments. Meanwhile, through this research, we can also draw out several reasons that lead to this kind of phenomenon, such as the population of labor age increases too fast; the industrial structure is not rational; the gross unemployment and structural unemployment exist at the same time; recessive unemployment is becoming visible; the low social holding capacity of the problem of unemployment and the imperfect social security system.IV.Prediction of labor supply in Jilin Province in 2050We have predicted from the demographic angle the situation of the labor supply in Jilin Province in 2050. First of all, according to "the five censuses" data we calculate out bor更多还原