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“雁行模式”的变革与中国产业发展选择

The Alteration of "Flying Geese Pattern" and the Development Choice of Industry in China

【作者】 汪云芳

【导师】 李晓;

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 , 世界经济, 2004, 硕士

【摘要】 本文共分为五部分第一部分是问题的提出。在21世纪初,世界经济已形成经济全球化和区域经济一体化的格局。经济全球化、区域经济一体化的实质内容是以发达国家为主导,以跨国公司为载体的全球范围内的新一轮产业结构调整。但各国产业结构变动不是孤立进行的,而是相互影响、相互衔接的;连结和影响各国产业结构变动的国际贸易和外国直接投资也基本上发生在临近的国家之间或世界几大区域。20世纪60年代至90年代初期,东亚经济形成了一个产业转移和传递的“雁行模式”。但进入90年代后,由于日本经济持续衰退,东亚各经济体经济发展差距缩小,主要商品出口市场——美国经济的变化等“雁行模式”赖以存在基本条件的变化,“雁行模式”是否仍存在引起了理论界的争论。依笔者看来,对“雁行模式”是否存在问题的研究应该从其内涵、本质和实现条件方面来加以把握,这也是本文所要论述的第一个问题,即主要通过对“雁行模式”实现条件的变化来说明“雁行模式”的变革。所以,先对“雁行模式”内涵和本质进行研究,这样可以使得我们对其发展过程有一个更清楚的认识。中国自改革开放以来,国民经济实现了持续的高速增长。中国的进出口贸易对东亚有很高的依存度,带动中国产业结构调整和升级的外国直接投资的主要来源国也集中在东亚。要研究世纪之交中国经济进入新成长阶段面临的产业结构调整,就不能不研究国际区域乃至全球的产业结构调整,而其中的重点是东亚的产业调整,研究的立足点和归结点主要在于,中国的产业结构调整如何与其衔接,这是本文将要论述的第二个问题。在此基础上本文将主要通过中国与日本、“四小”和东盟的产业优势的比较和产业内贸易的发展状况,思考中国以后产业发展的选择方向。第二部分是“雁型模式”的内涵及其形成和发展过程。“雁行形态”论是有关后进工业国的典型产业发展模式理论,是由日本著名经济学家赤松要于20世纪30年代根据统计研究得出的经验法则。在20世纪90年代之前,东亚形成了以日本为首、“四小”为两翼、东盟和中国尾随其后的呈倒V型的经济起飞态势及其过程,他们之间形成了技术密集与高附加<WP=54>值产业——资本密集型产业——劳动密集型产业的阶梯式产业分工体系。所谓的东亚区域产业循环机制,是指东亚各国、各地区之间基于垂直分工(或部分水平分工)的一种资金流与物流的良性循环,有关国家或地区得以实现产业结构调整、工业化水平提高,最终实现经济起飞和连锁型的经济高速增长。第三部分是“雁行模式”得以实现的条件及其变化。“雁行模式”形成和存在的基础可以概括为:一是雁阵中所有成员的出口均有充足的市场需求;二是作为“雁行模式”的“雁头”日本应保持产业的不断升级,其作用在于向“四小”和东盟提供机器设备和技术,并与之开展生产合作,使后者逐步提高产业竞争力;三是在东亚地区,日本、亚洲“四小”和东盟处于经济发展的不同阶段,有着明显的差异,这种差异有利于发挥各自的优势,促进地区经济的发展。但是,20世纪90年代后,这些条件发生了变化,主要原因有:一是“雁头”日本经济长期低靡不振,产业升级放缓,带动东亚其他国家产业升级的“领头雁”作用有所削弱;二是由于“四小”、东盟和中国经济的飞速发展,垂直分工为主导的国际分工被复合网络型国际分工所取代,产业内贸易获得发展;三是传统“雁行模式”赖以存在的外部环境因素——美国市场发生了变化。东亚地区已经逐渐形成一种多边、互补、垂直分工和水平分工交织、复合型的国际区域分工新体系;垂直型贸易正在向带有某些水平型贸易因素的方向变化;东亚各经济体在保持阶梯状递进特征的同时,将更多显示出水平分工合作的特征。但是,“雁行模式”作为一种区域产业循环机制,其实质、内涵与特征并未发生根本性的变化。第四部分是当今中国与东亚各国(地区)分工与贸易发展现状。中国具有丰富的劳动力资源,劳动密集型产品具有比较优势。但中国加入东亚产业循环以来,并未跟在日本、“四小”甚至东盟之后生产劳动密集型产品,而是全方位的参与东亚的产业合作。分工与贸易发展现状:一是中日贸易商品结构不断改善,互补性大于竞争性。中国对日出口的制成品的竞争力有较大提高,并且双方贸易向水平方向趋近。但从相互贸易中相同工业制成品的价格比较来看,中国向日本出口的是技术含量和价格相对低的同行业产品,而从日本进口的是技术含量和价格相对高的同行业产品。因此两国分工形式虽然由垂直型的产业间贸易向水平型的产业内贸易转变,<WP=55>但在同一产业内部分工上,两国仍处于垂直关系,因此互补性远远大于竞争性。二是中国与“四小”的贸易也主要以互补性为主。由于中国与韩国的贸易近几年发展迅速,以韩国为例来分析两国的产业内贸易发展情况。两国间产业内贸易占有很大的比重,从而两者之间具有很大的互补性。三是中国与东盟的经贸关系:互补与竞争关系。中国与东盟的关系比较紧密,而且双方的贸易逐步从基于要素禀赋差异的传统产业间贸易走向规模经济和差别产品的产业内贸易。但是双方基于自身的比较优势,都选择以劳动密集型或资源密集型产业为主导出口产业,从?

【Abstract】 The paper includes five sections:Section one: Putting forward the questions that are discussed in the paper. In 21 century, economy internationalization and regional economy integration are clear in international economy and the essential content of economy internationalization and regional economy integration is that with the adjustment of developed countries’ new industry structure all over the world, not is the alteration of every country’s industry structure separated, but inter-affected. International trade and FDI which link and affect every country’s industry alteration almost take place between near countries or in some big region. From 1960’s to the beginning of 1990’s, there exists rings in East-Asia, that is, “flying geese pattern”. But from 1990’s, with continual declination of Japanese economy, reduction of gap of economy development in East-Asia, variation of American economy, which are basic conditions of “flying geese pattern”, that “flying geese pattern” still exists has been discussed. By explaining the content of “flying geese pattern”, we know its essence; by explaining that its essential factors have not been changed, we know there is fusion of multilateral, mutual-supplemental, vertical division of labor and horizontal division of labor, and a new comfound system of international region exists in East Asia. Every country’s economy will develop to horizontal state when preserving economy gap.From reform of China, Chinese GDP has received continual increase. Import and export of China depend on East Asia greatly, and FDI that leads adjustment of Chinese industry structure mainly comes from East Asia. So with economy internationalization and regional economy integration, we must compare industry structure of ours with those of other countries’ in East Asia when we want to adjust our industry structure. The basic point what we research is the link of Chinese industry structure and other countries’ in East Asia.Section two: The content of “flying geese pattern” and the process of its <WP=57>formation and development. Before the beginning of 1990’s, there was a pattern of “flying geese” in East Asia, that is, Japan was “the head”, ANIEs was “the wings” and ASEAN was “the tail”. There is a step-division system of vertical division of capital and goods. By this good cycle, related countries can get adjustment of industry structure and improvement of industrialization. At last, they receive economy development.Section three: The factors of realization of “flying geese pattern” and the change of the factors. Principal conditions of “flying geese pattern”: I. There is adequate market demand of export that comes from all the members of “flying geese array”; II. Japan as “the head” of “flying geese pattern” should keep exporting its industry, so that it can provide ANIEs and ASEAN with equipment and technology. By this, they each other can cooperate and improve competition of ANIEs and ASEAN; III. In East Asia, there exists economy gap between Japan, ANIEs and ASEAN. The gap is advantageous for them to make full use of their superiority and accelerate regional economy development. But from 1990’s, these factors have been changed, the main reasons: a. The continual declination of Japanese economy and its function of leading other countries’ economy has been weaken; b. With the economy development of ANIEs, ASEAN and China, multilateral division of labor has taken place vertical division of labor; c. The exterior factor of the base of “flying geese pattern”--- American market has been changed. But the essential factors have not been changed, there is fusion of multilateral, mutual-supplemental, vertical division of labor, and a new comfound system of international region exists in East Asia.Section four: The present situation of division of labor and trade between China and other country in East Asia. There is plenty of labor resource in China and her labor dense industry is superior to other countries’. But from she joined “industry-rings” of East Asia,

  • 【网络出版投稿人】 吉林大学
  • 【网络出版年期】2004年 04期
  • 【分类号】F121.3
  • 【下载频次】634
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