【作者】 王升涛；

【导师】 姚梅芳；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 企业管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 风险投资作为一种高风险的、长期的权益型投资，近年来在促进科技成果的转化、推动高技术产业发展方面越来越显示出其独特的作用，并已发展成为影响社会经济发展和产业进步的重要力量。美国麻省理工学院著名学者安德森就曾指出：没有风险投资美国经济就不可能出现后来持续的繁荣。哈佛商学院的乔希·科纳研究发现，与1美元的研究开发所带来的专利相比，1美元的风险资本带来的专利多3～5倍，风险资本的效率明显高于其它资本。许多风险投资界人士认为，中国的风险投资环境还远不够完善，尤其是整个社会的信用风险高，许多企业或个人不讲信誉，法制观念淡薄，法律对债权人和投资者的保护也十分有限，欠债不还、经济诈骗的事件屡见不鲜。当前我国的信用环境，使得风险投资面临着较大的资信风险，阻碍了风险投资的发展。首先，我国尚未建立个人信用制度、企业信用评级制度和全国统一的信用登记制度，各市场主体在业务往来中对信用的发现、甄别和防范异常困难。在这种情况下，投资机构对创业企业资信水平的不了解使得风险投资资金不敢贸然而投入，影响风险投资的发展。其次，法律法规不健全，在规范信用环境方面缺乏相应的实施细则，操作性不强，从而助长失信行为。再者，社会普遍缺乏信用意识和信用道德规范。由于中国市场经济发育不充分、信用经济发育较晚，市场信用交易不发达，建国后又长期处在计划经济体制之下，真正的社会信用关系十分淡薄。加上国家信用管理体系不完善、相关的法律法规和失信惩罚机制不健全，导致社会上信用缺失行为盛行，没有树立起以讲信用为荣、不讲信用为耻的信用道德评价和约束机制，信用的失衡成为社会普遍的现象。本文通过对高技术风险投资资信风险特点的研究、对国内外资信风险管理的经验总结、以及对金融业中资信风险管理的共性规律的借鉴，设计了适合我国国情的资信风险评估模式，开发出科学、规范、高效的资信评估系统<WP=73>（软件支持系统）。资信评估就其本质而言，就是要真实地、动态地反映各个利益主体的实力和品行，给社会提供一种基准参考值，客观上起到规范利益主体的经济行为、减少社会经济风险的作用。风险投资中的资信评估是指对创业企业资信度的评级，即风险投资公司按照一定的程序、方法和标准，对创业企业的信用状况、履约的可靠性程度进行全面的衡量和评价，从而确定创业企业资信等级的过程。它包括两方面内容：一是创业企业及创业者是否愿意履约，即创业企业的信用状况，这主要从主观角度考察风险投资资信风险的大小；另一方面是创业企业是否有能力履约，这从一定程度上影响着主体的履约意愿，履约能力可以从获利的前景等方面考察。本文共分为六部分。绪论部分主要介绍论文选题的背景及文章结构，并对国内外的相关研究作了阐述。文章第二章则是从理论上分析了高技术创业企业所面临的资信风险。本文首先描述了风险资本投入前后资信风险的表现形式，指出由于信息缺陷、投资双方的利益冲突、不确定性及不完全合同等因素而导致资信风险的存在。在其后的三章中，本文根据创业企业发展的三个不同阶段即种子期、创建期和成长期的阶段特点，从品德、能力、资本三个方面分析了各阶段资信风险的影响因素，并据此设计了相应的评价指标体系。在结构上，各章首先介绍各阶段的特点及所面临的主要风险，其次分析资信评估的主要内容并建立评估指标体系。评估指标大致分为三层：品德、能力、资本为第一层指标，品德、能力、资本这三个方面有其各自的子指标，即为第二层指标。在创建期与成长期，第二层之下会有第三层指标。通过层次分析法确定各层指标的权重之后，采用模糊综合评价方法就会得到各阶段创业企业的资信等级。在建立了三个阶段的评价模型之后，本文第六章则采用Visual Basic编程语言将前文所设计的模型在计算机上实现，以提高评价结果处理的速度和效率。通过一个实例的演示，介绍该评估软件具体的操作过程。在评估的方法上，本文借鉴已有的5C要素分析法，根据风险投资的特征，对创业企业从品德、能力、指标三个方面进行分析评估。在资信等级的确定<WP=74>上，本文根据品德、能力、资本这三个一级指标的等级组合，结合不同阶段的风险表现，给出创业企业的资信等级。在企业资信等级的分类上，本文采用A+、A、B、C三等四级分类制，有别于传统信用评级常用的三等九级制。然而，本文在以下方面仍然存在着不足之处：一是文章在指标的设计中没有考虑行业的特点；二是本文所设计的指标体系还需要经过实证的检验，通过进一步的调整来更好的反映创业企业的资信风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Venture capital in a kind of high risk and long-term stock type, demonstrates its unique function more and more in promoting the transformation of the scientific and technical result, promoting the development of high-tech industry in recent years. It is showing its important strength in influencing the economic development. Famous scholar Andersen of American Massachusetts Institute of Technology has pointed out: The lasting prosperity of U.S.A.’s economy cannot exist without the venture capital. Josh of Harvard Business School discovers that compares with patent brought by R&D of 1 dollar, there are 3-5 times more patents that the venture capital of 1 dollar brings, efficiency of the venture capital is obviously higher than other capital.A lot of personages of venture capital circle think, the investment environment of China is not still perfect enough and the credit risks of the whole society are high. For example, lots of enterprises or individuals do not value reputation and the law is very limited in protecting creditors and investors. The credit environment makes venture capital face bigger credit risk, which has hampered VC’s progress.First of all, our country has not set up nationwide credit rating system, which make it difficult for every market subject discovery, screen and take precautions against credit risk in business contacts. Secondly, the laws and regulations are imperfect and lack of corresponding implementing regulations in standardizing the credit environment, thus the behaviors of breaking one’s promise are encouraged. Moreover, societies generally lack credit morals and consciousness, the real social credit relationship is very poor. All theses make credit lacks very popular in our society.Considering the characteristic of credit risk in high-tech venture capital industry, this paper designed a credit risk evaluation system to suit the national conditions with reference to experiences of credit risk management in financial industry and outside the country. To improve the efficiency of assessing process <WP=76>software supporting system has also been developed. Credit rating is to reflect the companies’ true capability and moral dynamically by providing a consulting value for society, which will reduce the social economic risk and standardize the subject’s behavior in business. In venture capital industry it refers to the grading of the credit risk correctly according to certain procedure, method and stand so that we can have an comprehensive evaluation of the ventures’ credit state and dependability degree of honoring an agreement. It includes two respects; one is to investigate whether ventures would like to honor an agreement, namely the credit state. Another is whether the venture has the ability to honor an agreement. The ability will influence the will of the subject on a certain degree. It can be investigated from the respects such as lucrative prospect, etc. This paper is divided into six parts altogether. Introduction part describes the background and article structure, explains the relevant research both home and abroad. The second part has analyzed the credit risk faced by high-tech venture theoretically. It also describes the phenomena of the credit risk and points out such factors as information defect, interests conflict, uncertainty and uncompleted contract lead to the credit risk.Among following three chapters, influence factors to credit risk have been discussed such as morality, ability and capital according to each stage’s characteristics. Based on these analyses, the corresponding evaluation index systems have been designed. The index system consist of three layers and the character, capability and capital are the first layer. The first layer has its own sub indexes namely the second layer of indexes. In start-up and expansion stages one more layer is been added. After confirming the weight of each index by AHP, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to get the rating of the first layer indexes.In the last part the author adopt Visual Basic pr更多还原