【作者】 李波；

【导师】 严武；

【作者基本信息】 江西财经大学 ， 金融学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 市盈率是股市上的价值判断、风险判断、收益判断的重要依据。正确判断股票市场市盈率的高低具有重要意义，它不仅是政府金融监管部门制定合理调控措施的一个重要依据，也可以帮助广大投资者辨明市场风险、选择适当的投资策略。对我国股市(A股市场)市盈率是高还是低的争论，曾经多次成为经济学理论界和股票市场关注的热点问题。撇开背后的利益纷争不谈，由于缺乏对我国股市市盈率状况的深入研究，经济理论界和证券业内的各方人士对市盈率的高低各执一辞、争论不休，影响了证券管理者和市场投资者对市盈率水平的正确判断。如今中国股市机构投资者愈来成为投资者的主体，投资者投资理念发生了变化，市场也相应发生了变化。如何看待评价现在的股市市盈率对指导我国投资者投资、给政府调控股市提供参考都有重要的意义。由于我国股市的中国特色，对于我国的股票市盈率不能简单予以判断，我们有必要进一步分析市盈率的基本特征，进一步研究我国股市市盈率的结构、综合水平状况，使我们对沪、深两市的市盈率有更全面、更深入的理解。本文出于上述目的，试图以中国股票市场的大量、翔实的数据资料为基础，通过实证研究的方法，分析中国股票市场市盈率的整体特征，找出中国股票市场市盈率结构上的差异，研究影响市盈率变化的各种因素，确定我国A股市场市盈率的合理区间，在实证研究结果的基础上，对当前中国股票市场的市盈率水平做出评价，分析其原因，提出基于市盈率角度的政策建议。本文分为五章，主要内容如下：第一章导言部分介绍了市盈率的研究背景，在考察国内外研究成果的基础上，提出本文的研究思路和方法。第二章是市盈率分析理论基础部分。对市盈率的定义、特征和计算方法、口径作了阐述。利用股票红利现值模型推导出影响市盈率的主要内在因素：股利成长率和投资者要求的投资报酬率。利用市盈率的定义找出了股价指数和总盈利等影响市盈率变化的外在因素。第三章对我国A股市场市盈率作了实证分析。运用实证方法分析研究了我国股票市场市盈率的基本现况，按上市公司的经营业绩、行业属性、流通股本规模进行结构分类，分别研究了其市盈率特征。 第四章是对我国A股市场市盈率合理区间的研究。在对市盈率作了国际比较和评价后，结合中国的特殊情况，利用股票红利贴现模型推导出适合我国的合理市盈率模型，然后选取合适的数据，计算出我国的合理市盈率区间。 第五章是对中国A股市场市盈率的评价分析。以已确定的我国合理市盈率为评价标准，对我国股市市盈率做出评价，并对市盈率偏高的原因做了分析。 第六章基于市盈率视角提出我国股票市场发展的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 P/E ratio is extremely important to evaluate value, to evaluate risk and to evaluate earnings. It is useful to appraise P/E ratio because it is not only the crucial foundation for concerning supervision authorities to establish sound macro dominating measures, but it can help most of the investors to discern market risks and implement fitting investment tragedy, the discussions about whether the P/E ratio is high or low heated theoretical field and stock market for several times, owning to be for lack of deep research on the conditions of P/E ratio, different people have different opinions in the discussion, which in return influence the correct evaluation on the P/E ratio of security managers and many investors. Now the institute investors are becoming the principal part of the stock market, which results in the changes in investment faith and the changes in the stock market. How to appraise the present conditions of P/E ratio is meaningful to direct investment and provide basis for authorities to supervise stock market. Because of the existing of special conditions of China’s stock market, it is not appropriate to appraise the P/E ratio simply, by contraries, it is necessary for us to probe its basic characteristic, and to explore its structure and general status in detailed, which aiming at helping us to have a better understanding over P/E ratio in these two stock market.In order to reach the target above, this paper basing on detailed data of China’s stock market, makes use of empirical method, probes the basis characteristic of P/E ratio of China’s stock market, finds out the difference of P/E ratio, studies all kinds of factors exerting impact on P/E ratio, and establishes appropriate scope for P/E ratio of stock market for A shares. This paper, according to empirical research results, assesses the general conditions of P/E ratio, analyzes its reasons and makes policy proposition.This paper consists of five chapters, whose main contents are as follows.Chapter one is introduction, which introduces research background, and, basing on the existing reference at home and broad, explains the study trains and method.Chapter two aims at introducing concerned theories. It narrates the P/E ratio’s definition, characteristic, calculation method and caliber. Making use of model of present value of stock dividend, the paper deduces the inherent factors which influences P/E ratio, growth rate of stock dividend and ROI requested by investors. Making use of the definition of P/E ratio, we get such extrinsic factors as stock price index and aggregate earnings.Chapter three conduct empirical research on P/E ratio of stock market for A shares. It analyzes the general conditions of P/E ratio of China’s stock market, sorts the P/E ratio according to operating condition, industries and circulating equity size, and explores their characteristic respectively.Chapter four focus on reasonable scope of P/E ratio of stock market for A shares. First we conduct the transnational comparison of P/E ratio, then in line with P/E ratio’s special status in China, we deduce the model of reasonable P/E ratio by making use of model of present value of stock dividend, at last, we select lots of fitting data and calculate the reasonable scope of P/E ratio of stock market for A shares.Chapter five analyzes the P/E ratio of China’s stock market for A shares. Basing on the criteria established above, we evaluate P/E ratio of China’s stock market for A shares, and probe the causes of P/E ratio being on the high side.Chapter six mainly makes policy proposition on the development of China’s stock market from the point of view of P/E ratio.更多还原