【作者】 郭永鑫；

【导师】 吴建华；

【作者基本信息】 太原理工大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 实时洪水调度子系统是水调自动化监控系统的一部分，其功能是根据实时洪水预报子系统的入库洪水过程线，给出满足防洪、发电等要求的水库水位与水库出流的合理或最优配合，为科学制定水库调度方案提供理论分析和技术依据，是水库洪水预报调度系统成果的最终体现。 本论文在盘石头水库雨、水情实时信息采集子系统和实时洪水预报子系统的基础上，研究了实时洪水调度模型，并运用系统工程理论和计算机技术开发了相应的调度软件，完善了水调自动化监控系统。研究的主要内容包括： (1)通过SQL Server数据库接口对实时洪水预报系统预报的入库洪水进行分析，统计其洪水特性，包括洪峰流量、洪水总量、洪水频率等。其中洪水频率综合考虑了洪峰频率和洪量频率，并以重现期的形式直观地展示给用户。 (2)在用自然样条函数拟合水库特性曲线的基础上，用四阶龙格～库塔法进行调洪演算。通过对水位～库容～泄量关系的分析，确定计算时段步长，减少了调洪演算中洪水流量过程Q(t)和水库蓄泄关系R(V)非解析性(对自变量施行任何种类的数学运算均不能准确表达其函数关系)特点引起的误差。 (3)由于实时洪水调度所具有的特点，调度期内的入库洪水为已知，在实时调度中回答问题必须直接、清晰，因此调度太原理工大学硕士研究生学位论文模型属于确定性单库优化调度。在满足大坝安全的前提下，建立了多种满足生产实际和调度需要的水库洪水调度模型，包括规则调度模型、最大削峰准则调度模型、最短成灾历时准则调度模型、经验常规调度模型等，并用最优化方法—非线性规划法和逐步优化算法(POA)，对模型求解。 (4)以规则调度模型作为考核预报调度模型效果的基础方案，采用还原的盘石头水库设计入库洪水过程对模型进行校验，并对调度结果进行对比分析，给出各调度模型的适用条件及优缺点。 (5)针对盘石头水库具体工程情况和流域水文情况，建立了适合盘石头水库的实时洪水调度模型库，开发出界面友好、交互性强、操作简便的实时洪水调度系统，并针对不同洪水蓄泄过程优化闸门开度，为闸门监控自动化系统的控制实施提供技术依据。 盘石头水库为在建大H型水库，建成后水库的工程特性和流域水文特性等还需进一步修正，洪水预报调度系统也需经过实际洪水的检验，在实践中不断积累经验，以提高洪水调度的可靠性。另外，研究过程中由于资料、工程情况的限制，未能将整个卫河流域作为统一的防洪系统来对待，需在今后的研究中进一步完善，以提高卫河防洪能力，减轻两岸洪涝灾害。更多还原

【Abstract】 The real-time flood scheduling subsystem is a part of the reservoir scheduling auto-monitoring systems. According to the reservoir inflow forecasted by the real-time flood forecasting subsystem, it derives the best or proper association of stage and discharge, which satisfies flood prevention and power require, supplies theory analysis and technique support for scheduling schemes of reservoir. It is the ultimate purpose of the flood forecasting and scheduling system.Based on the real-time automatic subsystem of hydrologic data collection and transmission and the real-time flood forecasting subsystem of Panshitou reservoir, this paper studies and develops the real-time flood scheduling subsystem by system engineering methodology and computer technique, perfects the reservoir scheduling auto-monitoring system. The main contents of this paper are as follows:1. The reservoir inflow, which are forecasted by the real-time flood forecasting subsystem and stored in SQL Server database, are analyzed. The statistics of flood characteristic conclude peak flow,flood volume, flood frequency etc. Especially, the flood frequency overall considers the peak flow frequency and the flood volume frequency and explodes to user by the form of rainfall reappearing period.2. By making use of reservoir characteristic curve simulated by natural spline function, the discharge of reservoir are directly derived by four-order Rung-Kutta method. At that time, thorough analysis of relations of stage, storage and discharge, the pace of calculation time is determined. This method reduces the error generated by the non-analyticity characteristic, which is that anything function can’t accurately express the relation of inflow, storage and discharge in flood regulation.3. Since the fact that the reservoir inflow is known in term of scheduling, the problem need directly and distinctly be replied. The model is the deterministic optimize scheduling model of single reservoir. Under the precondition of dam’s safety, some of flood scheduling model, which conclude the regular scheduling model, the maximum peak clipping criterion scheduling model, the minimum deluge time criterion scheduling model and the experience scheduling model etc, are established and resolved by the nonlinear programming and the progressive optimality algorithm.4. The regular scheduling model is regarded as the based scheme to compare with other scheduling models. The tested cases adopt the reduced design inflow of Panshitou reservoir. Through compared and analyzed, every model’s application conditions and merits and faults are given.5. Based on the project conditions and the hydrographic conditions of Panshitou reservoir, the real-time flood scheduling model library is established. The real-time flood scheduling subsystem is developed, which is of excellent interface, simple and interactive manipulation. The different progress of flood storage-discharge corresponding to optimization of gate opening is derived. This system supplies technique support for the gate auto-monitoring system.Panshitou reservoir under construction is the II type project. After the reservoir is completed, the project conditions and the basin hydrographic conditions need to be further verified. The flood forecasting and scheduling system need to be examined by actual flood, and the reliability scheduling need to be further improved in practical. In addition, this system didn’t seem Weihe catchment as a whole system because of the restriction of project data and conditions. The system need to be perfected so that the flood prevention ability of Weihe is improved and the loss of flood disaster and waterlog is reduced in last works.更多还原