【作者】 赵锋；

【导师】 王宝荣；

【作者基本信息】 广西大学 ， 企业管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 高新技术产业作为知识经济的重要载体，其发展水平已成为衡量一个国家发达程度的主要标志。在我国高新技术企业抓住际遇、迅猛发展的同时，依然存在影响和制约其发展的瓶颈因素。其中，内外环境的不确定性带来的营销风险便是其重要因素之一。因此，加强复杂环境下高新技术企业营销风险预警研究具有重大的现实意义。 据企业预警的基本原理可知，预警指标体系是企业预警管理的核心。本文以高新技术企业营销风险预警指标体系为研究对象，以营销风险预警管理理论为演绎的逻辑，在概述理论沿革的基础上，从营销风险的具体表征和生成诱因入手，将高新技术企业营销风险分为内因型和外因型两大类，分别建构了预警指标体系，并运用层次分析法(Analytic hierarchy process)确定了各级预警指标的权重，最后建立模糊综合评判模型(Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation)，借助实地调研所获得的数据资料进行了必要的实证研究。 本文借鉴了国内外营销风险预警管理理论与实践中一些比较成熟的思路和方法，并结合我国高新技术企业的发展现状，在高新技术企业营销风险预警指标体系的设计和量化方面做出了尝试性研究，在综合评判方法上做出了改进。旨在探求一种有针对性的、简捷易行的识别、分析、评价高新技术企业营销风险的预警指标体系及其应用方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important carrier of the knowledge-based economy, the development level of high & new-tech enterprises has become the main sign of measuring a nation’s modernization. Although the high & new-tech enterprises in our country have seized opportunities and gained a rapid development, the factors of bottle-neck which restrain its development still exist. Among them, the marketing risk brought by uncertainty of the internal and external environments is one of the important factors. Therefore, the research on marketing risk forewarning of high & new-tech enterprises under the complicated environment has great realistic meanings.According to the basic principle of enterprise forewarning, the forewarning index system is the core of enterprise’s forewarning management. This paper regards the forewarning index of high & new -tech enterprise’s marketing risk as the research objection and the forewarning management of marketing risk as the logic deduction. From the angle of the specific traits of marketing risk and the inducement, the high & new-tech enterprise’s marketing risk can be divided into two main types- internals and externals on the basis of theory evolution. Structures the forewarning index system for these two types respectively and defines the weight of each forewarning index by using the Analytic hierarchy process. Finally, the author built the Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and carried on simple verification in light of the materials obtained by the investigation on the spot.Through absorbing some mature thoughts and methods about the domes-tic and international theory and practice of marketing risk forewarning management and combining the current situation of the high& new-tech enterprises of our country, the author makes an exploratory research on design and quantization of the marketing risk forewarning index and improves the synthetic method of assessment, in order to explore a pointed system and using method with which we can discern, analyze and assess the forewarning index of high & new-tech enterprise’s marketing risk more easily.更多还原