【作者】 王国杰；

【导师】 廖善刚；

【作者基本信息】 福建师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 随着全球变化研究的深入发展，全球变化研究领域认为，人类对地球系统造成的影响已经明显超过自然的作用，人类作用成为全球变化的主导因子。土地利用引起的土地覆盖变化是全球环境变化的重要组成部分和主要原因，洞察土地利用和土地覆盖变化对从整体上综合模拟和评价环境，认识人类活动与全球变化的相互作用机制，减少全球变化预测的不确定性，具有重要意义。当前阶段，进行区域LUCC案例诊断是LUCC知识积累的重要手段。本文选取福建省晋江市作为研究区，做了粗浅研究。全文分三章。 第一章主题为土地利用／覆盖变化研究的理论、方法、进展与展望。该部分简要陈述了土地利用／覆盖变化研究的理论与总体框架，对LUCC研究的方法与技术做了系统研究，尤其对LUCC动态监测技术与信息处理技术作了深入探讨。在概括了国际LUCC研究的理论进展与技术进展的基础上，认为建立LUCC研究标准化参数与模型体系、深化LUCC模型与独立其理论体系是今后LUCC研究必须要做的工作。简单介绍研究区自然、社会经济状况，与本文研究方法。 第二章研究晋江市土地利用变化时空复合模式。基于土地利用信息图谱概念，本章构建了晋江市1989-2001年土地利用信息图谱，包括综合信息图谱、生长图谱和消亡图谱，研究晋江市土地利用状况的时空变化。对土地利用变化的预测方法做了全面而细致的探讨，总结了一些常用的或者已经开始应用的模型，如灰色数列预测模型、多元线性回归模型、马尔可夫概率转移模型、系统动力学模型、地理元胞自动机模型等，也提出了几个新的方法，如灰色系统综合预测模型、人工神经网络模型、多元非线性回归模型等。本文选取马尔可夫转移概率模型对晋江市土地利用变化进行预测，在保持当前驱动压强不变的前提下，晋江市在50-100年内将发展成为高度城市化的土地利用格局。 第三章主要应用地统计学方法研究晋江市土地利用强度与人类影响指数的时空异质性。地统计学应用于土地利用研究的案例尚不多见。本章采用系统采样法采集研究样区，构建人类影响指数，应用地统计学方法研究土地利用强度及人类影响指数的空间格局，并且生成其Kriging表面，把土地利用强度与人类影响指数的空间格局定量表达为图式，取得较为理想的效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the penetrating development of global changes research, the domain holds the view that the impact on global system from human being have exceeded that from nature, and human being’s impact has been the key factor of global changes. The Land Cover Change resulted from Land Use Change is a significant constituent and main cause of global environmental changes, so the apperception of land use/cover change is of great importance to simulate and uppraise the environment synthetically, recognize the international mechanism and reduce the infinity of global change. Currently, case study plays a role part in accumulating knowledge. This article takes Jinjiang City as a case and makes some superficial research. The article demonstrates in three chapters as follows:Chapter One explores the theory, methodology, development and prospect of LUCC research.lt narrates the theory and comprehensive frame of LUCC research, makes a systematic research of its methodology, especially that of its dynamic observation and information analysis. It generalizes its advances in theory and techniques, and then proposes the points that its further developments necessitate a standard parameter and model system, a colligation of different models, and an unattached theory system. Then narrates the general situation of Jinjiang City, and then follows the methodology the case adopts.Chapter Two majors in the spatio-temporally compound patterns. Based on the concept of Land Use Information Tupu, it constitutes a series of Tupu models, Comprehensive Tupu, Death Tupu and Growth Tupu included, which uncover the spatio-temporally compound patterns of land use. It makes a comprehensive and meticulous discussion about prospective models of land use, introducing some ones in common use such as GM(1,1), multi-variable linear regressive model, Marcov model, dynamic model and Geo-CA model, and proposing some unfamiliar models such as gray systematical integrative prospective model, manual neural-network model and multi-variable nonlinear regressive model, etc. This article adopts the Marcov model and draws a conclusion that constructive land will predominate Jinjiang City in about 50-100 years.Chapter Three probes in the heterogeneity of land use tensity and human being’s impact sampled systematically with geostatistics in practice. Such cases with geotatistics practiced in land use study are currently scarce. Finally it forms a kriging surface, from which the spatial structure and its temporal change of land use tensity and human being’s impact are formulated explicitly.更多还原