风险投资项目评估体系研究

【作者】 史琳；

【导师】 武春友；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 本文旨在借鉴国外风险投资项目评估的研究成果，结合我国的发展现状，领会风险投资的本质，遵循正确的投资理念，采用合适的评估方法，选择可行的评价标准，构建一套比较完整的风险投资项目综合评估体系。 论文首先对国内外高技术产业和风险投资的发展概况，以及风险投资项目评估的研究进行了阐述和比较。然后对风险投资的主要特征和相关因素进行了分析，对投资项目的选择程序进行了论述，对投资项目的评估标准和评估方法进行了探讨。 在此基础上，运用理论分析与实例验证的方式，建立了由投资风险、投资机会和投资环境三个子系统，包括十二类评价指标共36个分指标组成的综合评价体系；并分别采用综合指标评价法、系统层次分析法和模糊综合评价法来设计综合指标体系、分配指标权数和处理计分量化。建立了期权定价法与净现值法互补的综合估值体系；并分别采用净现值法和期权定价法来计算投资项目的净现值和股权期权价值。构建了投资风险与投资机会相对应、投资项目与投资环境相兼顾、定性评价与定量估值相结合的三级评估模型。其中对评估模型构建、评价指标设计和股权价值评估进行了适当的创新和修正。构建了由综合评价体系与综合估值体系组成的风险投资项目综合评估体系，并且论证了该评估体系符合项目评估的投资机会发现和股权价值认定、以及多项目比较选择的要求。更多还原

【Abstract】 The objective of the thesis is designing a relatively comprehensive evaluation system of venture capital projects by using the relevant foreign research results for reference, considering the development of venture capital in our country, grasping the essence of venture capital, following the right investment thought, using the appropriate methods, and choosing the feasible evaluation standards.The thesis begins with the general situation of the high-tech industry, venture capital, and research of the evaluation of venture capital projects at home and abroad. Then the basic characteristics and relevant factors of venture capital are analyzed. The selection procedure of the projects is expatiated. The evaluation standards and methods are discussed.Based on these the comprehensive appraisal system is created that is composed of three subsystems-investment risk, opportunity, and environment. Each subsystem includes four evaluation indexes and the total subindex number is 36. The comprehensive index evaluation method, AHP (the Analytic Hierarchy Process) method, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used respectively in designing the comprehensive index system, determining each index’s weight coefficient and measuring the evaluation indexes. The comprehensive pricing system is created that uses both the NPV (Net Present Value) method and Option Pricing Model. They are used in calculating NPV and the stock option value respectively. The three-step evaluation model is created which is composed of investment risk & investment opportunity evaluation, investment projects & investment environment evaluation, and qualitative evaluation & quantitative pricing by means of theory analysis and example verification. In the model proper innovation and modification are made in designing the evaluation model and appraisal indexes, and in the stock value evaluation. The comprehensive evaluation system of projects is created that is composed of the comprehensive appraisal and pricing system. And it is verified that the evaluation system meets the evaluation requirement of detecting investment opportunity, determining stock option value, and comparing different projects.更多还原