【作者】 严世强；

【导师】 熊德琪；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 环境科学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 随着海上化学品运输、转存量的不断增加，化学品泄漏风险也日益增加，对海上泄漏化学品行为进行合理、可信的数值模拟并将其结果直观地显示是目前应急辅助决策和风险评估的关键技术。因此利用地理信息系统(GIS)强大的空间数据分析显示功能，进行基于GIS的海上溢漏化学品行为数值模拟研究具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。 在分析了国内外潮流模拟、近海水域环境污染扩散数值模拟以及GIS在海洋科学等领域的研究应用现状基础上，根据海上溢漏化学品的行为特点，采用Monte—Carlo法分别建立了不同类型的化学品在大气中挥发扩散、水面漂移扩展和水下溶解扩散的数值模拟模型，并通过对海气相互作用的研究，确立海洋—大气耦合模型，从而能够全方位地计算模拟溢漏化学品在海洋和大气中的行为动态。 为了给数值模拟过程迅速提供必要的流场和风场动力条件，本文分别建立了近海多开边界三维潮流快速预报模块和风场插值预报模块。首先应用伴随算子法从岸边验潮站资料估计外海开边界条件，然后用ADI法进行三维潮流计算，并用干湿法处理动边界，最终将计算结果以调和常数形式存储成图层文件用以预报潮流场；风场预报是采用插值法将监测站位风场资料插值生成海面10米风场，外推到垂向各层的风场，并诊断形成三维风场。 为提高数值模拟的应用性，本文采用GIS组件技术(MapX)和面向对象开发环境(Visual Basic)，将上述数值计算模型与地理信息系统进行了嵌入式紧密集成，初步形成了应用软件系统。实现了GIS支持下的坐标和投影变换、计算网格划分、水深和栖息地数据库的调用、等值线绘制等功能，以及对模拟计算结果时空分布的可视化表达。最后通过实际案例应用证实了系统的准确性和实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the increasing transportation of liquid chemicals in bulk by ships, the risk of the chemicals spill is getting higher and higher. So the reasonable numerical modeling of the spilled chemicals at sea is a key technique for the risk assessment and contingency decision-making. By taking advantage of the GIS’s capacities of analysis and-visual expression on spatial data, the paper develops the numerical simulation system to calculate and display the fates and behaviors of spilled chemicals at sea.Based on the analysis of the State-of-the-art numerical modeling on the tidal current, spreading of pollutant in the water column, and the application of the GIS in the marine science, the Monte-Carlo method is used to established the individual numerical model of emission in the air, advection on the water surface and dilution in the water column for different type of chemicals according to the chemical and physical character of each type of spilled chemicals. And a water-air interactive model is studied to consider the physical transfer between the water and air. So the fate and behaviors of the spilled chemicals at the sea and in the air can be simulated simultaneously.To provide the prevail conditions of the tidal current and the wind, the exoteric boundary condition using the data from exoteric station is established by conciliatory method, in which the movable boundary is dealt with by "dry-wet" method. Then the simulation models are computed by ADI method. The unison constants are saved in the form of layer databases for the aim to predict tidal current quickly. The wind field at theheight of 10 meters can be obtained by inserting the observatory data, and the wind field at the other height can be extrapolated using the diagnostic method.To promote the application of the numerical models, the GIS component (MapX)and an Object-oriented Programming Environment (Visual Basic ) are used to integrate the numerical models and GIS as a software system. With the help of the GIS module, the conversions of projection and coordinate, the formation of calculation grid and isoclines, and other functions can be approved. And the simulation results of the fate and behaviors of the spilled chemicals in space and time can be visually expressed.In the end, the numerical modeling system is applied to simulate the "3.24" oil spill accident happened in the Pearl River Estuary. The correspondence between the simulation results and the fact indicates that the numerical models and the system are feasible to simulate the behaviors of the spilled chemicals.更多还原