【作者】 鲁守栋；

【导师】 孙晋海； 曹莉；

【作者基本信息】 曲阜师范大学 ， 体育人文社会学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 预测是指通过对事物当前状态和发展趋势的把握而对事物未来发展的情况所进行的推测、假设和判断。预测是计划与决策的前提。在体育系统中，内外环境瞬息万变、要素错综复杂，整个系统处在混沌状态，因此，在决策前，必须先对体育系统进行预测，只有通过预测，把不确定因素的发生、发展及趋势尽可能的确定下来，才能对体育系统做出可靠的超前能动的控制。预测是一门实用性很强的应用学科，虽然体育预测的对象极其复杂多样，但却是可以认知的。只要认识了体育发展变化的规律性，就可以做出预测。当然，这种预测是建立在科学的理论基础之上的，采用合理假设、逻辑推理和科学的分析方法。 我国的体育预测理论经过二十多年的发展，已经初步形成了一套适合体育预测的方法体系，对体育决策科学化提供了重要的依据。但随着社会经济与科学技术的飞速发展，体育系统复杂性程度的不断提高，人们对体育预测结果精确度的要求不断提高，以前惯用的针对单一、简单系统的预测理论遇到了难以逾越的障碍。如何拓宽思路，运用处理复杂问题的手段来解决复杂系统的预测问题，成为了一个具有革命性的挑战。 就目前而言，解决和处理复杂性问题最为有效的办法，就是使用从定性到定量的综合集成法。综合集成法的实质是把专家体系、数据和信息体系以及计算机体系有机结合起来，构成一个高度智能化的人、机结合，人、网结合的体系，它的成功应用就在于发挥这个体系的综合优势、整体优势和智能优势。它能把人的思维、思维的成果、人的经验、知识、智慧以及各种情报、信息统统集成起来，从多方面的定性认识上升到定量认识。按照钱学森对系统的分类标准，体育系统应当属于复杂系统。因此，将综合集成的系统方法论应用到体育预测领域中，无疑是克服目前体育预测所遇困难的理想途径，也是突破体育预测理论发展瓶颈的理想工具。 本课题在占有大量文献资料的基础上，综合采用了调查访问法、比较研究法、系统分析法、数学建模法、软件工程法等多种研究方法，从阐述体育预测方法入手，比较分析了体育预测研究的现状，讨论了体育系统预测的发展方向，提出了体育预测研究的系统方法论问题，开发与研制了SSPST运毋习巧练预测仿真系统。 研究得出如下结论: (l)透过对体育预测方法的梳理、分析，可以看出目前人们对于体育领域内的预测仍然是以定性的研究为主，而定量预测研究主要集中在运动训练的成绩预测上。这表现出体育领域内的预测研究不仅在整体上而且在局部上都存在着严重的不平衡性。 (2)虽然体育系统中的预测方法已经形成了一套方法体系，但就其研究的对象来说，都是用来解决体育领域中局部的、低层次的问题，达不到“现代科学技术呈现出既高度分化又高度综合的趋势”。 (3)方法论问题成为制约了体育系统预测发展的瓶颈。综合集成的方法论所体现的人一机结合系统适应了现代体育向着综合性、系统化、高科技化方向发展的趋势，为体育系统预测的发展提供了理想的舞台。 (4)基于综合集成方法论开发设计的SSPST运动训练预测仿真系统以其友好的界面、强大的功能设计可实现信息资料集成、模型知识集成、功能集成三个层次，实现科学研究需定性与定量的结合，使运动训练的预测更加准确、更加科学，进而给决策者提供科学地决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Forecast means the inference, supposition or judgement on the future state of things by knowing their current state and development tendency well. Forecast is the presupposition of plans and decisions. The whole sports system is in a chaos with the changeable environment (inside and outside) and the complicate factors. Therefore, it’s necessary to forecast sports system before making a decision. Only by forecasting, can we make a reliable control of the sports system in advance since we have determined the uncertain factors and their development tendency. Forecast is a branch of practical applied science, which can be perceived (acquired) despite of its complex objects. It can be made as long as you know the changing rules of the sports’ development. Obviously, the forecast should be based on the scientific theories and makes use of reasonable supposition, logic reason and scientific analysis method.After 20 years’ development, Chinese sports forecast theories have fashioned a methodological system for sports forecast and provide important support for the scientification of sports’ decision. With the fast development of social economy and the scientific technology, and with the advancement of sports system’s complexity, people have a high demand of the sports forecast. The earlier simple and single forecast theories ran into an impassable obstacle. How to broaden the thoughts and solve the problem of forecast with a complex system has become a revolutionary challenge.As for present status, the most effective way to solve and deal with the complicated problems is to use a from-quality-to-quantiry synthetic method. The nature of the synthetic method is to combine the expert system, data and information system with computers, so that the system will be composed of thecombination of intelligent humans with machines and the combination of humans with internet. It is applied successfully out of the system’s synthetic, integrated and intelligent advantages. In this system, human’s ideology and its achievement, human’s experience, knowledge, intelligence and all kinds of information are integrated, which make the qualitative knowledge rise to the quantitative level. According to Qian Qisen’s classified criteria of system, sport system should belong to a complex system. Therefore, the application of the comprehensive and integrated systematic methodology to the sports forecast field is an ideal means to overcome the current problems and an ideal tool to surpass the current status of sports forecast theories.Based on a great number of materials’ collection, synthetically employing investigation and consult method, comparative study method, systemic analysis method, mathematics building model method, software engineering method and the others, from expounding sports forecast method, this article comparatively analyzes the present status of sports forecast study, discuses the development orientation of sports system forecast, thus comes up with the systemic methodology of sports forecast study and develops SSPST. All in all, this subject reaches the conclusions as follows:(1) Form the sorting and analysis of sports forecast methods, we can easily know that the forecast in the sports field still regards qualitative method as a main method, while quantitative forecast study is mainly concentrated on the forecast of sports training results. It indicates that the forecast study in the sports field is severely out of balance not only on the whole but also in part.(2) Though the forecast methods of sports system have already become a set of method system, but for its study object, it is only used to solve the problems about parts and in the low level in sports field, so it does not reach the level that "modern science and technology appears a not only highly divided but also highly synthesized tendency".(3) Methodology restricts the development of sports system forecast. Synthetic methodology reflects a system combining people with computer, whichtallies with the modern sports tendency towards synthesis, sy更多还原