LPG罐车公路运输风险评价方法及应用研究

【作者】 庄英伟；

【导师】 吴宗之；

【作者基本信息】 首都经济贸易大学 ， 安全技术与工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 本论文首先简要的论述了国内外危险物质运输定量风险评价的发展过程以及可燃液化气体储运安全性的研究状况。然后分别应用故障模式及影响分析方法和事故树对液化石油气罐车以及罐车运输过程中的危险危害因素进行定性分析。 参照国外工业危险品运输的风险评价方法和《工业危险品公路运输安全管理系统技术研究》课题组提出的评价模型，并结合我国液化石油气罐车公路运输的具体情况，对北京天龙液化气公司的罐车公路运输进行风险评价。 该方法首先对路线进行分段，然后对事故发生的频率和后果进行分析。鉴于国外对事故发生的可能性方面的研究主要依据大量的事故统计结果，我国在这方面开展的研究较少，本论文把国外的公路运输事故率作为基础数据，同时考虑到我国公路状况和气象条件等方面的差异，将液化石油气泄漏事故分为交通事故和非交通事故引发两个方面。事故后果模型主要考虑了蒸汽云爆炸、沸腾液体扩展蒸汽爆炸、闪火伤害模型，在应用研究时，考虑了立即点燃与延时点燃，以及延时点燃中的蒸汽云爆炸和闪火模型的早期、中期和晚期点火。 风险表述形式则采用通用的个人风险和社会风险两种表述形式，个人风险和社会风险的接受标准均采用固定设施的风险接受标准。更多还原

【Abstract】 Firstly, in this paper, the development process industry hazard materials transportation QRA and the study foreland liquified petreolium gas transportation safety are ananlysized. Secondly, the fatalness of LPG tank and the hazards in the process of transportation are ananlysized applying the method of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis and Failure Tree method qualitatively.In contrast with assessment methods of foreign countries, applying assessment methods which <<Industry hazard materials road transportation safety management research>> research groups have advanced in our country to Tianlong LPG Limited company.Firstly, In the process of qutitative risk analysis, divided the transport route into segments, secondly, .For the reasons of little studies in our country in the likelihood of occurrence of statistics, assessment is on the basis of statistical data of the likelihood of occurrence LPG road transportation accident of foreign country ,in the same time, considering the difference of road surroundings between our and foreign country, and the influences of population density, meteorology and other factors, divided LPG releases accidents into Accident-Initiated and Nonaccident-lnitiated accident. Accident consequences model mainly considered UVCE, BLEVE and flash flame, and not only considered instantaneous ignition and delayed ignition, but also considered early, intermediate and late ignition in delayed ignition.The standard results presentation techniques are used in transportation QRA: social risk and individual risk. Risk accepted standard apply stationary equipment standard.更多还原