【作者】 黄旭锋；

【导师】 王东阳；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 自改革开放以来，我国茧丝绸行业迅猛发展，一举成为世界上茧丝绸生产和贸易的第一大国。从产业链的角度来分析，蚕茧是整个茧丝绸业的唯一和专用原料，其价格是影响整个行业生产过程和调节供求关系的主导因素，是整个茧丝绸行业各种经济变量变化的集中体现。 本文以实证分析为主，采用定性和定量相结合的方法，主要从两方面展开：一是对中国蚕茧价格波动特征、不同时期我国茧丝价格机制和价格管理机制、蚕茧价格变化与蚕丝业发展的相互关系以及影响蚕茧价格变化的诸因素进行分析；二是对国家宏观调控政策的研究，通过比较分析国内外茧丝绸产业宏观管理措施，找出当前我国茧丝绸宏观调控措施中存在的问题。结合我国实际情况，通过分析得出以下主要结论： (1)蚕茧供给价格弹性大于需求价格弹性，其自发波动将是发散的，在经济运行中存在着周期性的超常波动和严重失衡的趋向。 (2)我国蚕茧价格周期性波动长度约为3年，同时，短期内价格波动的幅度和频率增大。 (3)蚕茧行政定价过高或过低，一般会放大蚕茧供求波动并降低贸易效率。 (4)在近期，蚕茧与粮、棉、油菜籽的比价保持在10～12：1.2～1.4：5.6～7.6的水平比较合理。 为稳定蚕茧价格和生产，政府应加强宏观调控。本研究提出的建议如下：①对茧丝绸业实行统一管理；②加强行业立法和依法管理；③准确、及时、权威的信息引导；④进一步完善国家厂丝储备制度；⑤完善行业准入制度；⑥加强对出口环节的管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since Chinese reforming and opening, the Cocoon & Silk industry has been developing at a high speed and ranked first in quantity of Cocoon & Silk production and exchange in the world. Through analyzing the whole industry of Cocoon & Silk, Cocoon is the exclusive and appropriative raw material of the whole industry, which price is the dominant complication to impact the progress of production and the relationship of the supply and demand of the whole industry. Its price is a central embodiment of all economic variables changes in the Cocoon & Silk industry.This thesis, based on virtual demonstration and combining qualitative and quantitative methods, mainly illustrates from two aspects. One is the analysis of the characteristics of cocoon’s price fluctuation, the variable mechanism and administration of cocoon price in different period, the mutual relationship between the change of cocoon’s price and the development of cocoon industry, and various factors which would effect the change of cocoon price. Another is about the study of national macro regulatory control policy. Through comparison and analysis of macro managerial methods of domestic and international Cocoon & Silk industry, it will find out some current problematic methods during the control process. Combining Chinese practical situation and according to the analyses, there are some main conclusions made as following:1. If the price elasticity of cocoon supply is over that of cocoon demand, the automatic fluctuation of the cocoon price would be emanative, which can cause the cyclical abnormal fluctuation and serious imbalance of cocoon market.2. In China, the length of cocoon price fluctuation period is about 3 years, at the same time, both the extent and the frequency of its price short-term fluctuation augment3. If the administrative price which is fixed by government is too high or too low, usually it would cause a fluctuation of supply and demand and decline the efficiency of cocoon trade.4. In the near future, It is reasonable to keep the price ratio between cocoon, grain, cotton and oil at 10-12 : 1.2-1.4 : 5.6-7.6.In order to stabilize the price and production of cocoon, the government should strengthen the macro regulatory control. Therefore, the author puts forward some suggestions as following:1. Implementing the uniform control system of the Cocoon & Silk industry;2. Strengthening reinforcement of the legislation and management of cocoon trade;3. Inducting accurate, timely, and authoritative information;4. Consummating the national manufacturers’ reservation system for raw silk;5. Consummating admittance system of Cocoon & Silk industry;6. Strengthening the management of exportation.更多还原