【作者】 曾毅；

【导师】 谢光辉；

【作者基本信息】 湖南师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 随着社会生产力的发展，土地利用类型结构和布局趋向复杂化。在一定区域内，为达到土地利用系统一定的生态、经济和社会效益最优目标，对土地利用结构进行优化研究，实现土地资源的可持续利用，成为土地科学特别是土地利用学迫切需要解决的课题。探讨土地利用结构在空间和时间上的合理配置，必须求助于系统优化的方法。在规划过程中，系统优化方法其实就是以数学模型为主要手段的定量分析过程。目前在规划手段中大量采用模型优化方法是现代土地利用规划学科发展的趋势之一。灰色线性规划是在技术系数为可变的灰数、约束值为发展的情况下进行的，是一种动态的线性规划。运用灰色线性规划(GLP)模型来实现土地利用结构的优化，它弥补了一般线性规划的不足，不仅可以知道既定条件下的最优结构，还可以知道最优结构的发展变化情况。本文以湘东南山区--桂东县为研究区域，以2000年为基期年。根据县域的土地利用结构现状，定性分析其土地资源的基本特征以及存在的主要问题。依据桂东县1991-2000年历年来的数据，应用GM(1． 1) 灰色预测模型，对2010年的人口、耕地、粮食总量及单产进行预测。在此基础上，建立灰色线性规划模型(GLP)，且从桂东县土地资源特点、社会经济发展要求和经营习惯，以及今后的发展方向出发，同时综合考虑相关数据的可操作性，共设置了11个变量，对其土地利用结构进行优化。为体现土地利用效益高、费用低、土地资源配置最佳的原则，分别取约束参数的上限、下限及中间值，应用灰色线性规划程序计算，最终构造出3个供选方案，并用层次分析法进行方案选优，最后得出桂东县土地利用结构的最优方案。优化结果表明：桂东县耕地、园地、林地、牧草地、城镇村及工矿用地、交通用地、水域和未利用地的面积要由2000年的招.45:0.58:1 77.95:1:1.82:4:1.24:0.08:186.36调整为2010年2.13:0.35:21.03:1:0.37:0.52:0.17:0.01:0.84。这样才能合理配置桂东县土地资源，最大限度地发挥其土地利用的生态、经济和社会效益，改变当地贫困落后面貌，实现桂东县土地资源的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the development of society productivity, the land use pattern structure and layout tend to be complicated. In certain areas, to reach optimum goals of sure ecological, economy and social benefit of land use system, studying the land use structure optimizedly and realizing sustainable use of the land resources become an urgent subject that to be solved in land science, especially in the science of land use. To probe into rational collocation of land use structure at space and time, we must seek help from the systematical optimization method. In the course of planning, the systematical optimization method is quantitative analysis course in which the mathematics model was taken as main means actually. The development of discipline of modem land use and plan trend to applying the model optimization method largely among plan means at present.Grey linear programming is a kind of dynamic linear programming, which carries on when technological coefficients are variable dust and restriction value and are in the process of .development. Realizing optimization of the land use structure by the grey linear programming(GLP) model remedies the deficiency of the general linear programming, whereas, we can know not only the optimum structure under certain condition, but the situation of it’s development and change .This paper regards the East and Southern Mountain area--Guidong county as studying area, 2000 as annual base period. At first, the essential feature and existing problem of the land resource in Guidong county were analyzed qualitatively according to the area’s current situation of land use structure. Then, the population, cultivated land, grain total amount and per unit area yield to 2010 are predicted in Guidong county according to the county’s data over the past years( 1991-2000) by applying the grey predicting model of GM (1.1). Based on this, the grey linear programming model( GLP) was set up, and the land use structure was optimized with 11variables set up according to feature of the land sources, the demand of society and economy development, management custom and development direction in the future of the county, the maneuverability of relevant data was considered comprehensive as well. To embody the principles of high benefit and low cost of land use and the optimal collocation of land resources, the upper limit, lower limit and median of the constraint parameters were adopted separately and calculated by applying the grey liner programming, and three optional schemes were constructed to the ultimate.The optimum scheme of land use structure of Guidong county was obtained, AHP to optimize those schemes was applied also.Here is the optimized result: the area of cultivated land, garden land, forest land, grazing land, city, town village as well as industrial and mining land ,traffic land, waters and unused land should to be adjusted from 18.45:0.58:177.95:1:1.82:4:1.24:0.08:186 in 2000 to 2.13:0.35:21.03:1:0.37 :0.52:0.17:0.01:0.84 in 2010.Only in this way, the land resources can be collocated rationally, the ecological, economy and social benefit of land use can be exerted to the optimization, the poor situation can be changed, the sustainable development of land resources can be realized of Guidong county.更多还原