【作者】 尹发能；

【导师】 刘春平；

【作者基本信息】 湖南师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 水安全问题通常指人类社会经济发展过程中发生的与水有关的各种危害问题，例如洪涝、溃坝、水量短缺、水质污染等。水安全问题阻碍社会经济的可持续发展，影响区域和国家的稳定与安全。洞庭湖位于长江中游南岸，自然条件优越，工农业生产发达，然而，制约湖区社会经济发展的最大障碍正是水安全问题，突出表现在三个方面：泥沙淤积、洪涝灾害、水污染与环境退化等。因此，本文选取洞庭湖区作为研究对象，从定性与定量的角度，对湖区的水安全状况进行评价。主要研究内容如下： (1) 分析洞庭湖水安全态势和特征以及主要影响因素。洞庭湖水安全形势具有自身的特殊性，尤以洪涝灾害最为严重，湖区每年因此遭受巨大的损失。影响水安全的因素包括自然的、人为的、历史的、现实的等多个方面。 (2) 提出洞庭湖区水安全评价指标体系。影响湖区水安全程度的因素是多方面的，本文根据各种因素与水安全状况的相互关系，分析其各自对水安全程度的影响和作用，提出多层次多因子的评价指标体系，利用层次分析法(AHP)来计算各指标的权重。 (3) 应用多层次多目标模糊优选模型这一模糊数学方法对洞庭湖三个区域和南洞庭湖内部的水安全状况作出定量评价，比较不同区域单元的水安全形势，并对评价结果进行分析总结。 (4) 根据评价结果，提出洞庭湖整体的和不同区域的水安全保障体系，包括需要达到的目标、将要采取的主要措施等，对洞庭湖今后的全面治理开发提出意见和建议。 评价结果表明，就整体而言，水安全形势最好的是东洞庭湖，最坏的是西洞庭湖，南洞庭湖介于二者之间，说明洞庭湖区水安全状况从东向西逐渐恶化。南、东洞庭湖十分接近，二者没有明显的差别，而与西洞庭湖差异相对较大。再从泥沙淤积、洪涝灾害、水污染与环境退化等具体水安全问题的表现看，三者也表现出较大的相似性，说明洞庭湖的水安全问题是全湖性的。但是，不同之处和差异性依然存在，本文对此做了进一步分析和说明。 本文提出的应用多层次多目标模糊优选模型评价洞庭湖区水安全状况的方法是可行的，结果是符合实际的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water security is an environmental issue resulting from water along with economy development in the contemporary society. Its emergence causes a lot of disasters in the world, such as flood, collapsing of dam, water shortage and pollution, which could do harm to our human society. So far, much attention has been paid to the water security issue worldwide. The Dongting Lake, located in the mid-reach of Changjiang River, with abundant resources and good natural environment and flourishing industry and agriculture, is faced with the serious problem of water security, which is the primary handicap of the economy sustainable development, and may severely threaten the security of the lives and property of the people. In this area, the main problems of water security include sediment, flood, water pollution and environment deterioration. This dissertation studies on the Dongting Lake region to evaluate the water security condition quantitatively and qualitatively, and targets at offering theory instruments for the harness and development of this area. The main research contents are presented as below:Firstly, this thesis analyzes the situation and quality of water security as well as factors affecting water security condition. In Dongting Lake region, every problem of water security has different trait, and flood is the most severe one, which brings about considerable damage annually. Factors influencing water security vary, including natural factors, artificial factors, historical factors, contemporary factors, and so on.Secondly, according to the relationship between all factors and water security, after analyzing these factors’ specific impact, this paper brings forward an evaluation index system describing water security, quantifies each index, andcalculates the weight of each index by the use of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP).Thirdly, in this article, a fuzzy mathematics method, multi-objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization model, is applied to the evaluation of water security of the three sub-units of Dongting Lake area, and comparative analysis of the result of evaluation ensues after that. Mine while, this paper introduces the fundamental theory and method as well as its application of multi-objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization model in the sector of water security research.Lastly, based on the previous result of evaluation, the paper puts forward water security maintenance systems of the whole Dongting Lake region and its three units respectively. Water security maintenance system consists of the target of water security, the principal measures to be adopted, and the suggestion to harness of the Dongting Lake in future.From the result of evaluation, it is released that, as a whole, the best condition of water security is the east Dongting Lake, and the worst is the west Dongting Lake, with the south Dongting Lake being the second. Therefore, it can be said that, in the Dongting Lake region, water security situation become bad from east to west. However, water security of east Dongting Lake is similar to the south, but the west Dongting Lake are obviously different from them all. Further more, there is much similarity in specific problems of sediment, flood, water pollution and environment degradation among the east, west and south Dongting Lake, and this proves that water security is an integrative issue in Dongting Lake region. Never the less, differences still exist, which are analyzed yet in the article.As this paper demonstrates that, the result of evaluation is consistent with the realities. So Multi-objective andmultilevel fuzzy optimization model, the fuzzy mathematics method, could be used to evaluate water security of Dongting Lake region, and has practical applicable value and prospects in the research of water security evaluation.更多还原