【作者】 李江平；

【导师】 刘明；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 国民经济学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 自1929—1933年的大危机后，世界经济在半个世纪内保持了相对稳定。但90年代后，全球金融危机层出不穷，金融危机爆发的频率明显增高。据克鲁格曼归纳，金融危机大约每两年就发生一次。这些危机往往以国际游资的运作为导火索，以货币危机为爆发点，具有内源性、潜伏性、快速、广泛的连锁性和传染性等特点，对危机爆发国乃至世界经济产生巨大的破坏作用。我国虽然在亚洲金融危机中依靠较为严格的资本管制避免了危机的传染，但我国业已加入WTO，资本项目管制的放开是种必然的趋势，我国经济将日益深入、广泛地融入全球经济一体化进程，这使我国经济在面临更多机遇的同时，也将面临更多的冲击与考验。因此，对于金融危机生成和传染机制的研究无疑有着深刻的现实意义。尤其是在我国银行体系存在大量呆坏帐和整个金融体系较为脆弱的背景下，这种研究就显得尤为迫切。鉴于此，本文在借鉴理论界对金融危机生成和传染机制研究的基础上，运用规范与实证相结合的分析方法，对我国金融体系、资本流动、外汇和外债管理体制以及投资效率等进行考察，指出我国存在可能引发金融危机的隐患，并试图提出我国防范金融危机的政策选择。 本文主体共分为三个部分展开论述： 第一部分主要是对金融危机的生成和传染机制作全面的概述。对于银行危，早期的马克思，马歇尔和凯恩斯等主要从经济周期的角度来阐释银行危机的生成机制；明斯基、戴蒙德、弗里德曼、斯蒂格利茨和莱因哈特等分别从微观经济主体行为、银行运营机制的内在缺陷、不当的货币政策、信息不对称、金融自由化等角度来分析危机爆发的原因；对于货币危机，西方学者先后提出了三代模型。这三代模型分别从一国经济基本面的恶化、固定汇率制的内在缺陷和预期的不稳定性和金融运行机制等角度来研究危机的生成机理；米什金、开明斯基等的研究表明，银行危机和货币危机往往相伴而发，它们互为因果、相互强化；对于危机的传染，Gerlach、Miller、IMF等分别对危传染的贸易渠道、金融渠道和预期渠道等进行了深入研究。 第二部分对我国可能引发金融危机的隐患进行深入分析。这种隐患首先体现在我国较为脆弱的金融体系上。我国银行部门存在大量不良资产、资本充足率和盈利水平偏低等问题；股票市场也存在泡沫和投机过度等问题，此外我国金融体系结构过于单一、金融分化程度不够等，如此等等，使我国金融体系脆弱性偏高。其次，我国的汇率体制过于僵硬，这极大的影响了我国货币政策的独立性及其有效实施，它往往也会掩盖十分严重的货币危机;再次，我国的外债管理存在问题，虽然目前各种外债指标仍在安全范围内，但近年来外债尤其是短期外债增长速度过快，外债的结构也有一定问题，更为严重的是我国的隐性外债问题。此外，我国资本管制下资本的非正常流动、低下的投资效率等也为金融危机的爆发埋下隐患。 第三部分论述了我国防范和化解金融危机的政策选择。一般而一言，一国金融危机的爆发都有其国内诱因，因此要防范和化解危机首先要从国内经济因素入手。因此就要加快商业银行部门改革，尽快转变其经营机制，建立现代商业银行制度，同时加强对银行体系的审慎性监管;完善我国的资本市场体系，大力发展和完善货币与证券市场;渐进放开对资本项目的管制、改革现行的外汇、外债管理体制、建立完善的金融危机预警系统等。此外，在当今金融一体化程度日益加深的今天，仅靠一国的努力来对付金融危机是不大可能的，因此还要对现行的国际货币体系进行改革，积极推进区域性金融、货币和国家间的合作。更多还原

【Abstract】 Ever since the Great Depression During 1929-1933, the world economy has been in a relatively stable state for half a century. But after 1990’s, financial crises broke out one after another, the financial crises frequency increases obviously. According to Krugman’s research, the financial crisis is about to take place every two years. These crises usually were touched off by the attack of international hot money and broke out first as currency crisis, having the inside sources, latency, rapid and extensive chain reaction and contagiousness as their features. Their breaking out imposes great damage on a country and even the whole world economy. Although our country avoided the contagion of the Asia crisis by relatively strict capital regulation, our country has become a member of WTO, and the gradual release of the regulation on capital and financial account is an inevitable trend.Our country’s economy will increasingly and extensively melt into the progress of the integration of the world economy. These make our country’s economy face not only more opportunities, but more attacks and ordeals. Therefore, there are in-depth and realistic meanings to study the breaking out and contagious mechanism of financial crises. This kind of study is particularly urgent against the background that there are a lot of bad loans in the banking system and that the whole financial system is rather vulnerable. In view of this, taking the analytic method with reference to the achievements of the research on the breaking out and contagious mechanism of financial crises, this paper studies our county’s financial system, the capital flow, the foreign exchange and foreign debt regime and the investment efficiency etc. and then points out the factors that will induce our country’s financial crisis. Then this paper tries to put forward policies against the financial crisis.The main body of this essay consists of three parts:Part 1 gives a full description of the breaking out and contagious mechanism of financial crises. As for bank crises, Marx, Marshell and Keynes ect. explained the breaking out mechanism of the crisis mainly from the angle economic cycle. Minsky, Diamond, Friedman, Stiglitz and Reinhart etc. analyzed the causes of the bank crisis respectively from the behavior of the microscopic body, the intrinsic flaws of theand financial liberation etc. As for currency crises, western scholars have put forward three generation crisis models. These three generation models research the formation mechanism of currency crisis respectively from the angle of the deterioration of a country’s economic fundamentals, the intrinsic fault of the fixed exchange rates, the instability of expectations and the financial operation system. The researches of Miskin and Kaminsky ect. show that usually the bank crises and the currency crises coexist and they interact as both causes and results and intensify reciprocally. As to the crises contagion, Gerlactu Miller and IMF respectively studied the trade contagion, the financial contagion and the expectation contagion.Part 2 elaborates on hidden dangers that probably set off the financial crisis in our country. This, first of all, displays on the relatively vulnerable banking system. There are a lot of bad loans in our country’s bank department and the required capital rate and the profit level are too low. There are bubbles and over speculation problems in the stock market. Moreover, the structure of the financial system is unduly unitary, and so on. All these factors make the financial system rather vulnerable. Secondly, the exchange rate is too rigid. This greatly affects the independence of our country’s monetary policy and its effective implementation. It frequently conceals serious currency crises. Thirdly, there are problems in our country’s foreign debt administration. Although the foreign debt indexes yet are within the safe range at the moment, in the past few years the foreign debt especially short-term the foreign debt increased too fast. The composition of foreign debt isn’t very reasonabl更多还原