【作者】 杨敏；

【导师】 宋保平；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 旅游管理， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 青海作为西部地区一个不发达省份，旅游产业发展相对滞后，在国内旅游市场中缺乏竞争实力。一个旅游产业竞争力严重不足的落后地区是否还应该坚定无移地发展区域旅游产业?对此，应该对青海省旅游产业的发展潜力进行论证。如果现实竞争力弱而发展潜力强，则应努力增强潜力因素，培养现实竞争力，最终实现潜力到竞争力的转变；若竞争力不强而发展潜力也后劲不足，则说明青海省不具备发展旅游产业的条件和能力，应寻找其他产业为主要发展方向。 本文运用旅游学、发展经济学、竞争力理论以及可持续发展的理论和方法，严格界定了旅游产业发展潜力和旅游产业发展潜力系统等基本概念，深入探讨了旅游产业发展潜力的特征以及与旅游产业竞争力、旅游可持续发展、区域发展等相关概念的关系。并按照一定原则构建了评价旅游产业发展潜力的指标体系，运用因子分析法对青海省1992年至2001年的旅游产业发展潜力进行了分析评价。通过分析，得出青海省旅游产业具有较强的发展潜力，其发展前景良好，并找出制约青海省旅游产业发展潜力的限制性因素和贡献因素，根据存在的问题，提出青海省旅游产业发展潜力转化为现实竞争力的途径。 全文共包括七个部分： 第一部分：对旅游产业发展潜力的概念进行了定义，探讨了其特点和相关概念的关系，阐述了研究的意义和国内外研究的进展。认为旅游产业发展潜力是旅游产业在发展过程中所体现出的、潜在的、在一定要素的刺激下能够发挥出来并能促进旅游产业持续发展的能力。旅游产业发展潜力是一定区域内旅游产业与区域环境、社会、经济、科技和管理调控等相互作用、相互影响、相互制约而构成的具有一定结构和功能的有机整体，在维持可持续发展的前提下，其整个系统在发展过程中所表现的潜在能力，是衡量区域旅游产业发展前景的一种综合测度。旅游产业发展潜力具有综合性、隐蔽性、非确定性、阶段性和后发性五个重要特征。 第二部分：重点介绍了研究所要解决的问题、研究思路、方法、资料来源以及旅游产业发展潜力研究的理论基础，并进一步分析了区位论、竞争力理论、生命周期理论、可持续发展理论、系统论对旅游产业发展潜力研究的指导意义。 第三部分：从青海省自然环境、经济状况以及历史文化背景入手，详细分析了青海省旅游产业在国民经济中的地位、目前旅游企业发展状况和旅游资源开发状况，得出青海省旅游产业发展水平较全国其他地区落后。 第四部分:对旅游产业发展潜力指标体系的设置原则，评价方案、指标的筛选、分类和综合计算诸问题进行了研究，提出一套旅游产业发展潜力的测评体系，供实证分析选择采用。 第五部分:运用因子分析法对青海省旅游产业发展潜力进行了分析评价，并绘制出旅游产业发展时序图，预测了未来潜力发展方向。在此基础上用定性评价的方法对重要影响因子进行了分析，最终得出青海省是一个旅游产业发展潜力高于其发展水平的地区，其产业潜力空间较大，显示出较强的发展势头。青海省旅游产业发展潜力空间的不断增大是其系统相互作用和协调发展的结果，主要贡献因素是:整体的人文素质有所提高、整体经济支持能力增强、旅游产业发展的观念和意识有所改变、旅游行业初具规模、市场吸引力逐渐增强等。系统内影响青海省旅游产业发展潜力的限制性因素主要表现为:旅游企业的经营管理能力、生态环境质量、旅游资源的开发利用能力、基础设施建设水平、吸引外资能力、科技创新能力等六个方面，这些限制性因素的改变将促使青海省旅游产业发展潜力的进一步增强和扩大。 第六部分:提出青海省发展潜力转化为现实竞争力的途径。即，通过实施四个精品工程，实现两个关键突破，树立新资源观念、新目标市场观以及新区位观来实现潜力到竞争力的转化。 第七部分:为全文的总结 本文的创新之处:(1)首次对旅游产业发展潜力的概念进行了界定，并探讨了它的基本特征以及与相关概念的联系与区别，明确潜力研究对区域旅游产业发展的重要意义。(2)采用专家调查法和因子分析法构建了旅游产业发展潜力测评体系，第一次从旅游产业发展角度对潜力的量化评价进行了初步研究。(3)用发展的眼光和动态分析的方法，以十年数据为基础首次系统地论证了青海省旅游产业发展潜力的运动轨迹。(4)依据测评结果，为青海省旅游产业发展潜力转化为竞争力提出具有针一对性的战略决策，不仅给青海省大力发展旅游产业增强了信心，而且也为旅游产业发展滞后地区拓展了思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Qinghai, as one of the least-developed provinces in the western region of China, lacks competitiveness in the domestic tourist market mostly due to the lagging behind of its travel industry and related development. Should such an underdeveloped area whose current barely-in-existence travel industry attempt to develop regional tourism and compete with others? To answer this, one will need to appraise the potential for development of a future travel industry with correlation to Qinghai’s current regional community, environmental and natural resources, social capital, economic policy, technological contribution and managerial approach.If it can be proven that the developing potential for Qinghai’s future travel industry is high and strong, despite its current low competitiveness, great efforts should be made to nourish the contributing factors while continuing the strengthening of current conditions. Then, the transition and transformation of these potentials to competitive power can be realized. On the other hand, if in addition to its currently low competitiveness, one finds the potential for development to be weak, which means the province doesn’t have many natural and man-made advantageous conditions and the abilities to develop its own travel industry, it should be recommended that Qinghai should take and look for other industries as the main developing direction.By utilising and applying theories and methods from Tourism Science, Development Economics, Competitiveness, and Sustainable Development, the author will attempt to provide a strict definition of the potential for development of a travel industry and the system related. Based on relevant concepts, such as the Competitiveness of Travel Industry, the Sustainable Development, and Regional Development, the author will try, in this thesis, to do an in-depth research and analysis of the basic characteristics and their correlations to the potential for development of a travel industry.In accordance with common travel industry practise, an indexing system for the developing potential of a travel industry will be setup. Based on this indexing system, the Factor Analysis method, and Qinghai Province’s tourism records from 1992 to 2001, the author evaluated, analysed, and found the potential for development to be high and strong with delightful prospect. The author also found some negative inhibitors and positive contributors to Qinghai’s current tourism development and will put forth possible solutions, work-around and ways to enable Qinghai Province to transform its tourism developing potential into competitive power.This thesis consists of seven parts:PART I:The author will define the potential for development of a travel industry, study its characteristic and the relationship with relevant concepts, expound thesignificance of the research, and show the researching progress of both at home and abroad. The potential for development of a travel industry is the potential ability that can be embodied in the course of development of the travel industry. It can promote the travel industry to develop continuously under the stimulus of certain elements. It is an organism with certain structure and function, because in certain region, the travel industry, regional environment, local society, economy, science and technology, and management, all interact, influence and restrict each other. On the premise of maintaining sustainable development, this potential ability which displayed in the course of developing the whole system is a type of integration of the estimation at the prospect of the travel industry. It has five important characteristics, they are integration, covertness, uncertainty, staged, and delayed-action.PART II: The author will describe problems surfaced during the researching process, methodology to be implemented, and sources where the material was obtained. Then, some theoretical bases of the research will be introduced. The importance of the Position Theory, Competitiveness Theory, Life Cycle Theory, Sustainable Development Theory, and the Sy更多还原