格网技术支持下的人口再分布模式研究——以浦东新区为例

【作者】 程丹明；

【导师】 丁金宏；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 人口再分布是指随着时间的改变，人口空间分布的变化。空间分析在人口再分布研究中处于重要的地位，GIS技术又在空间分析上具有突出的优势。本文借助GIS技术，结合空间内插理论和格网技术，对浦东新区第四次和第五次人口普查的数据进行分析。并在此基础上，对浦东新区人口的空间再分布模式进行研究，探索其影响因素、形成机制，提出人口再分布的宏观调控政策。 人口普查，往往依据行政区划划分普查区域。这可能导致由于行政区划的改变，不同普查年份的人口数据在空间上难以直接对比。因此我们运用格网分析技术和空间内插理论，将研究区域格网化，借助GIS空间分析技术和格网技术，计算出每个栅格单元相应年份的人口密度，以增强不同普查年份数据的可比性。 通过分析表明，浦东新区1990年人口分布呈现明显的梯带状分布特征，一级阶梯为陆家嘴地区，人口密度最高，在20000人／km~2以上：二级阶梯为金桥-梅园-潍坊-唐桥-上钢一带，人口密度在10000-20000人／km~2：三级为二级以东广大地区，人口密度在2000人／km~2。2000年基本呈现阶梯分布格局与多核心并存结构。以陆家嘴为中心的沿黄浦江的一级阶梯相比1990年来说已经沿江扩大，基本与1990年的二级阶梯相符合，人口密度在20000人／km~2，陆家嘴地区的突出地位有所降级，由于人口具有对产业分布的跟随性，2000年的浦东人口出现了以高桥—外高桥、金桥、花木—张江为重点的多核心增长区域，出现了多核心增长与梯带东扩并存的格局。 本人利用Visual Basic 6.0结合ESRI公司的MapObjects 2.1，对浦东新区人口空间分布分析系统进行了开发，系统提供了数据输入输出接口和空间分析功能，利用该系统还可以分析其他任意区域的社会经济统计数据，并能生成基于格网的各种专题地图。而且分析结果可以方便输出存储，以便进一步的研究和应用。该系统在太仓沿沪地区社会经济调查研究数据分析工作中也取得了较好的效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Population re-distributing refers to the changing process of population distribution patterns. Spatial analysis is the important part in population re-distributing study. GIS technology has its outstanding advantages in spatial analysis, so by using GIS technology and spatial interpolation theory and the analysis technology of grid we can analyze the population data of Pudong New District, which is available by the fourth and the fifth census. And on the basis of analysis, the paper has studies the population re-distribution pattern of Pudong New District, explored the influencing factors and forming mechanism of Pudong population status, and population developing trend. The paper has aslo put forward the macro controlling policy of Pudong population re-distribution.When census is taken, census region is usually compartmentalized by administration district. Thus, if there is any change in administration district, population data of different census year cannot be contrasted directly in space. Using GIS spatial analysis technology, grid analysis methods and spatial interpolation theory to compute the population density of every grid unit in corresponding year, on the one hand, can improve the comparability in different census year’s population data which is caused by the change of administration district.The analysis result shows that in 1990, population distribution ofPudong district has an obvious characteristic of distributing in different levels. The first level is Lujiazui Area, which has the highest populationdensity-above 20000 persons per sq.km; the second level is the zonalarea of Jinqiao-Meiyuan-Weifang-Kangqiao-Shanggang, where the population density is between 10000-20000 persons per sq.km; the third level is the area east to the second level, where the population density is 2000 persons per sq.km. In 2000, population distribution has a characteristic of mixed structure, that is, distributing in different levels and multi-core structure co-exists. The level in the west becomes larger along the Huangpu river when compared with that of 1990’s. This level accords with the second level of 1990’s approximately. The population density there is 20000 persons per sq.km. The prominent status of Lujiazui area is not so obvious as before. Due to population following industry’s distribution, a new population phenomena of Pudong arises in 2000, that is, there are some multi-core population increasing regions: gaoqiao-waigaoqiao, jinqiao, huamu-zhangjiang. And the scope of the first and second level move towards east, north, and south.the writer of this paper use Visual Basic 6.0 and Mapobjects 2.1 of ESRI to develop the spatial distribution analysis system, and there are I/O interface and spatial analysis function in the system. This system can be used to analyze social and economic data of any region, and can be used to create many kinds of thematic maps which are based on grid network.Analysis result can be outputted conveniently for further research and application. The system has been also used successfully in the project of Taicang society and economy analysis.更多还原