【作者】 李莉；

【导师】 束炯；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 环境科学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来，我国城市大气污染日趋严重，正在从燃煤型污染向交通型污染转变。目前全国机动车保有量迅速增长，尤其是北京、上海、广州等特大城市尤其明显。加之国产汽车单车排放水平比美国、日本要高出几倍甚至几十倍，汽车维修保养不善，城市交通道路拥堵和市内居民集中，这势必引起城市空气质量的不断恶化。因此定量计算上海市机动车尾气污染物排放状况，对汽车尾气排放的时间变化、车型差异及区域差异进行分析，并利用GIS系统所提供的城市路网、地理环境等信息，根据交通流量、气象条件，采用先进的机动车尾气扩散模型及数值计算方法，模拟交通污染扩散状况，为政府有关部门制定环境管理制度、合理制定城市规划和建设管理提供决策依据，具有重要的实用价值。 本论文首先对上海市交通状况进行了大范围的调查、采样，建立了全市机动车保有量、车型比例、车公里数及车速清单。排放因子是计算道路机动车污染物排放强度的关键参数，它的确定直接影响到计算结果的准确性。本文采用美国的MOBILE6汽车排放因子模型计算了机动车排放因子，并结合新车排放因子测试数据及上海市机动车排放实际状况进行修正，最终建立了排放因子清单。在此基础上，分宏观、微观两条路线对全市机动车尾气污染物的排放状况进行定量评估。 宏观上，对全市机动车排放污染物的总量分区域、车型及年份分别计算，据此可以分析机动车尾气污染物排放的时间变化、区域差异及车型差异。在区域上，将上海市划分为内环线内浦西、内环线内浦东、内外环间浦西、内外环间浦东及外环以外五个区域；车型上将上海市机动车划分为轻型汽油车、中型汽油车、中型柴油车、重型汽油车、重型柴油车、摩托车及轻型摩托车7类；在时间上计算了基准年2000年、现状年2002年及未来年至2020年排放状况。 微观上，首先计算了上海市典型道路的线源源强，从中可以了解污染严重的路段。然后通过调查上海市21个典型交叉路口的车流状况，计算了路口的污染物排放。最后利用美国加利福尼亚交通部开发的线源空气质量模型CALINE4模式对典型道路污染物的扩散状况进行了模拟。 在以上工作的基础上，采用Visual Basic6.0面向对象式编程语言、MapObjects2.1控件开发了上海市交通污染控制管理信息系统，集成了上述功能，并在GIS图形上进行直观显示。系统还就国内外排放控制措施进行对比，可为政府有关部门制定道路交通污染管理制度、合理制定城市规划和建设管理决策提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the atmospheric pollution has been gradually more serious, which is transforming from coal-based pollution into traffic-based pollution. The number of motor vehicles in our whole country, especially in such metropolitan cities as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, increases rapidly. Furthermore, the emission level of vehicles made in China is tens or even hundreds times of that in the United States and Japan. The improvement and maintenance of vehicles are not quite good, urban traffic is very crowded and the population density is quite high, which deteriorate the urban air quality. Therefore, it is quite necessary to calculate the emission amount of vehicle exhaust pollutants and analyze its variation with time, vehicle types and area. Moreover, we applied an advanced line source dispersion model into the analysis of traffic pollutants distribution, by using the urban road net, geographic environment, traffic volume and meteorological conditions provided by GIS. All of the work is of great value as a basis for government to establish environment management system, urban planning and construction management.Firstly, we made a large-scale research and sampling on Shanghai traffic condition, based on which the inventory of vehicle type ratios, vehicle miles traveled and vehicle speeds were set up. Emission factor is a key parameter in the calculation of vehicle pollutants emission amount and emission rate. It directly influences the veracity of calculation results. In this research, we selected the MOBILE6 mobile source emission factor model provided by US EPA to calculate the vehicle emission factors, which were further modified according to the emission factors test data and Shanghai current situation. Thus, the inventory of emission factors was built up. Based on these inventories, we launched researches on Shanghai vehicle pollutants emission in two ways: macro-scale and micro-scale.In macro-scale research, we calculated the total emission amount according to areas, vehicle types and different years. Thus, we can get the emission difference with years, vehicle types and areas. The whole Shanghai city is divided into five sub-areas: region which lies to the west of Huangpu River and within inner-ring road; region which lies to the east of Huangpu River and within inner-ring road; region which liesto the west of Huangpu River and between the inner-ring road and outer-ring road; region which lies to the east of Huangpu River and within inner-ring road and region which lies outside the outer-ring road. All vehicles in Shanghai are divided into seven types: Light-duty gasoline vehicle, Medium-duty gasoline vehicle, Medium-duty diesel vehicle, Heavy-duty gasoline vehicle, Heavy-duty diesel vehicle, Motorcycle and Light duty motorcycle. The research time includes base year 2000, current year 2002 and future years of 2005,2010 and 2020.In micro-scale research, we calculated the line source emission rate of typical roads in Shanghai, from which we can learn the pollution situation of roads. We calculated emission amount of pollutants at 21 typical intersections base on survey of the vehicle flow, vehicle type ratio and vehicle speed. The dispersion situation along typical roads was simulated using the line source dispersion model-CALINE4, developed by California traffic department and recommended by USEPA.Base on the above researches, a Shanghai Traffic Pollution Management System was developed using Visual Basic 6.0 programming language and MapObjects 2.1. This system integrates all these functions and can display the modeling results on Shanghai traffic map. It also provides the comparison of vehicle exhaust control measures between China and other countries, which is a theoretical basis for government to set up traffic pollution management regulation and urban planning.更多还原